Albert Pujols: How Alex Rodriguez Is Going to Cost Him Millions in Free Agency

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As the MLB regular season begins to wind down and the buildup to October begins, it's important to remember that there will be some very big names on the market this coming offseason. Last year the big names were Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth. This offseason features a much better player pool.

Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes and David Ortiz are the top bats. CC Sabathia (if he opts out of his current contract) and C.J. Wilson are the top starting pitchers, and Jose Valverde, Ryan Madson, Heath Bell and Jonathan Papelbon are the best closers. Of course, there are going to be plenty of other free agents out there, but these 10 will draw the most attention and the most money as well.

The top prize is Albert Pujols. Yes, Sabathia will create a stir, and Reyes plays shortstop, one of the toughest positions in all of baseball to fill, but the Pujols negotiations and eventual signing will set the market—or, in this case, reset the market for big bats for the next several years.

Following the conclusion of the 2007 season, Alex Rodriguez opted out of what was already the largest contract in Major League Baseball history. Rodriguez's timing was optimal. He was the reigning MVP, coming off arguably his greatest season in what was already an outstanding career. The public perception of the economy was still good; this was before the March 2008 collapse of Bear Stearns.

Rodriguez was 31 years old and consistently healthy, and news of his positive performance-enhancing drug test in 2003 had yet to surface. The Yankees were also in a somewhat desperate situation, having exited the playoffs in the opening round for the past three seasons. Meanwhile, divisional rival Boston was about to win its second World Series in four seasons.

Alex Rodriguez would eventually land a contract worth $300 million over 10 years. Both the years and the dollars were staggering. Four years later the contract is beginning to look like a deal that won't be repeated in any fashion anytime soon. Rodriguez hasn't come even close to repeating the statistical feats of his 2007 season. He's had injuries and revelations of steroid use, and even when healthy he has not been the same offensive force he was in 2007.

That's not to say that Rodriguez is not a good player. He's very good, but he's getting paid to be the very best or among the very best, and it appears that the days of Alex Rodriguez sitting atop a list of offensive statistics may be over.

Albert Pujols enters free agency at almost the exact same point in his career that A-Rod did back in 2007. A-Rod was 32 on opening day 2008; Pujols will be 32 on opening day 2012. A-Rod had a career with over 10 spectacular seasons; Pujols will likely finish this season with over 30 home runs and over 100 RBI for the 11th year in a row.

Both players are probably ticketed for Cooperstown. Alex Rodriguez will have to answer questions about his use of performance-enhancing drugs, but I have a feeling that barring more allegations he will eventually make it to Cooperstown. Pujols has never had any performance-enhancing drug allegations. Sure, people have speculated about his use, but he's never tested positive, and his numbers have been stunningly consistent even as methods for testing and frequency of testing have all increased dramatically.

Pujols won't be getting anything close to the contract that Alex Rodriguez got. I'd be shocked if Pujols' contract eclipsed $200 million. In fact, if I had to predict the final deal, I'd go with eight years and $200 million. That number might even go down should Pujols sign with a National League team that won't have the option of shifting him to DH as his career winds down.

There are some other reasons that Pujols' final contract won't be nearly the size or length of A-Rod's.

The economy is far worse now than it was in fall/winter of 2007. There's still clearly plenty of money available in baseball, but what team owner wants to shell out that type of contract and then have to explain to his fanbase why ticket prices have been raised, or how they need taxpayer money to afford a new stadium? It would be questionable PR at best to lavish that type of deal on any athlete right now.

The other key issue is where he ends up. Let's face it: The only team with $300 million to spend on a player has already made that investment. The Yankees aren't going to be in on the Pujols race. They may make some inquiries, but with Sabathia likely to opt out of his own deal and first base already manned by a great first baseman in Mark Teixeira, the Yanks have no place to put Pujols.

When one scans a list of teams with money to spend, there are a bunch that have no place for Pujols. The Red Sox won't be in the running with Adrian Gonzalez at first. The White Sox already have several big contracts on the books and Paul Konerko at first. Detroit has Miguel Cabrera; Philly has Ryan Howard.

That doesn't eliminate all the top spenders, but it does eliminate the big two, Boston and New York—two teams whose payrolls are significantly higher than the rest of their major-league counterparts.

The first team to consider is St. Louis. The Cardinals will be under enormous pressure from their fans to spend and spend big to retain Pujols. St. Louis isn't wealthy on the level of the Yanks or Red Sox, but it has a rabid following, and Pujols really is the "franchise." He did lead the Cardinals to two World Series appearances and one ring in 2006.

The Los Angeles Angels would have to be mentioned on any short list. The Angels have an owner in Arte Moreno who is willing to spend money. They also have a team with needs on offense. In spite of current first baseman Mark Trumbo making a push for Rookie of the Year, the addition of Pujols would be a dramatic upgrade. The Angels do have Kendrys Morales coming back next season, but that will be after a layoff of a season and a half.  

St. Louis' greatest rival is the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs have had offensive woes since Sammy Sosa left town. They'd love nothing more than to pluck Pujols from their rival, and Pujols would instantly become the most famous athlete in America's third-largest city (with the possible exception of Derrick Rose).

The Texas Rangers are already one of baseball's best offensive teams. Their best pitcher, C.J. Wilson, is a free agent after this year, and re-signing him would likely take precedence over a costly pursuit of Pujols. Were Wilson to depart, signing Pujols could allow Texas to make young first baseman Mitch Moreland available in a trade to restock what would be a shallow rotation.

Then there are the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets. These two teams could have a dramatic impact on not only the Pujols sweepstakes but also the entire 2011/2012 free-agent class. Both teams play in major markets. Both teams will generate revenue, but both teams are currently in financial dire straits as a result of mismanagement.

A Mets franchise with cash to spend would likely first make re-signing Jose Reyes the priority. If Reyes were to depart, then they might enter the Pujols sweepstakes. Signing Albert would allow the Mets to deal Ike Davis (assuming his health is not compromised) for a starting pitcher.

The Dodgers are also looking for now ownership. If someone such as current Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban were to buy the Dodgers, he'd want to make a splash, and Pujols would more than qualify as one.

Regardless of who eventually purchases the Dodgers, they won't have unlimited funds to spend, and Los Angeles has two players on its existing roster in Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw who are MVP- and Cy Young-caliber. Kershaw won't be a free agent until 2015, but Kemp comes up in 2013, and as a younger player who may be nearly as good as Pujols, one would think retaining Kemp or setting the team up financially to make every effort to retain him would be priority number one for whoever buys the Dodgers.

In the end Albert Pujols will receive a very large contract. It won't be $300 million, though—it probably won't even come close. Alex Rodriguez won't just cost the Yankees a ton of money; he may end up costing Pujols nearly $100 million as well.

Ben Shapiro writes for TheFanManifesto. He can be followed on twitter at https://twitter.com/#!/Shappernyc The entire FanMan team can be followed on twitter at https://twitter.com/#!/TheFanManifesto