Pac 12 Week 1 Preview: Which Teams Will Establish Themselves Early?

The Pac-10 had a reputation for rarely scheduling games against FCS competition, so I was surprised to find six opening-week games featuring FCS teams in the new Pac-12.  From my point of view, none of these six teams can establish themselves early.  I remember Arizona State last year, scheduling two of these cupcakes, and not being bowl eligible.  I think there should be a rule that wins against FCS competition for BCS Conference teams should not count for bowl eligibility—but the rules state that they do.  For these six teams, the freebie is over.

In the face of that, I salute Oregon —a team that consistently plays a more solid schedule, and opens this year at No. 4 LSU.  That should be a hell of a good game, even if both teams are under investigation.

I am excited we are starting to get down to real football!  

The Hall of Shame: Six Pac-12 Teams Open Against FCS Teams

Each of these teams are in the Hall of Shame for playing FCS teams.  Imagine how much more they will be ashamed if they don't win.  Clearly none of these teams will establish themselves well this week:

Utah Utes:  On Thursday, Utah defeated Montana State 27-10 in its first game as a Pac-12 member. That's how Utah wants to establish its new era as a BCS Conference team—by playing an FCS team?

Arizona State Sun Devils:  On Thursday, ASU started its season by beating up on UC Davis, 48-14.

The Oregon State Beavers play Sacramento State on Saturday.

The Washington State Cougars play Idaho State on Saturday.  

The Washington Huskies play Eastern Washington on Saturday.  EWU is usually one of the better FCS teams.

The Arizona Wildcats play Northern Arizona University on Saturday.

For these teams, respect will have to come later, if at all.  Welcome to this week's Hall of Shame. 

Four Pac-12 Teams Start with Non-AQ Competition: Three Could Lose Anyway

Four Pac-12 teams open with games facing Non-AQ (Automatic Qualifier) competition—and not all of them are favored.

UCLA Bruins @ University of Houston Cougars on Saturday, September 3, 2011.

Last year UCLA knocked Case Keenum out of the game and the season, and Houston crumbled.  So did UCLA.  This year Case Keenum is back, and if he can remain standing in the pocket long enough, he's expected to break a lot of NCAA records in the process of airing out the football—so many yards that some people have picked Houston as a possible BCS sleeper.  That seems unlikely without a better defense, but Houston is capable of putting points on the board.

As for UCLA...Well there really is no good excuse for this not to be a better team.  USC is down, UCLA was recruiting well until last year—but without a turnaround this year Rick Neuheisel won't get another year.  RB James Franklin should be able to get yards running behind a big line, and against a weak Houston defensive line.

In the end, I expect Houston to bomb away to a win, if Case Keenum can stay injury-free.

Prediction:  Houston 42, UCLA 27

No. 7 Stanford Cardinal vs. San Jose State Spartans on Saturday, September 3, 2011

Heisman front-runner Andrew Luck is back with new coach David Shaw at the helm for the Cardinal. The game might be interesting to see how Stanford is dealing with breaking in a new coach and new players.  If Stanford does not win by at least 30 points, that does not bode well for Stanford.  San Jose State has a lot of returning starters, and hopes to improve on last years 1-11 record.  But lets be real— Stanford is in a whole different class of football than San Jose State.

Prediction:  Stanford 51, San Jose State 10

California Golden Bears vs. Fresno State Bulldogs on Saturday, September 3, 2011

This could be an interesting game.  I have trouble knowing what exactly to expect this season from both teams.

Fresno State's past success came about in part due to former QB David Carr.  His younger brother, Sophomore Derek Carr, has the Bulldogs more optimistic than they've been for many seasons, and Junior RB Robbie Rouse is now healthy and ready to roll.  Could Fresno State be ready to rise out of their relatively recent stupor and make a run for the WAC Championship that's up for grabs?  If so, they could start by making their opening statement against Cal.

As for Cal, which slipped to 5-7 last year, they need to do better.  UC Berkeley is a great university and can draw quality recruits—they should be contending in the Pac-12 consistently.  Transfer QB Zach Maynard from Buffalo has the starting nod, along with dual-threat ability.  The defense should be solid. Can Cal find the magic to put it all together?  On paper, California should win.  But on campus, there is no fire.

Prediction:  Fresno State 28, California 21

Colorado Buffaloes @ Hawaii Warriors on Saturday, September 3, 2011

 This could actually get really ugly for Colorado, which is undergoing a complete rebuild after the horrific Dan Hawkins era.  New coach Jon Embree will eventually return Colorado to respectability, but any time the cupboard is bare and you need to make lots of changes, the road can be tough.  Colorado was 110th nationally against the pass.  So opening up the new era and season by visiting Hawaii, possibly the most pass-happy college in the country, does not bode well for the Buffaloes.  QB Moniz is capable of passing for a lot of yards.  Colorado's RB Rodney Stewart should have a great day too.

Prediction:  Hawaii 52, Colorado 31 

Minnesota in the Coliseum: Has USC Slipped Enough for Them to Have a Chance?

Minnesota Gophers @ # 25 University of Southern California Trojans, Saturday September 3, 2011

Some people are picking Minnesota as a trendy upset pick this week.  USC is in its second year of probation, and is thus bowl-ineligible this year.  

How far has USC dropped?  Just a few years ago USC was expected to contend for the National Championship every year.  Former coach Pete Carroll moved on, sanctions followed, and coach Kiffin is better known for controversy than winning championships.

Okay, USC slipped to 8-5 last year.  But they retain a really sick collection of highly ranked recruits, including QB Matt Barkley, who will be playing on Sundays soon enough.

Minnesota was 3-9 last year, has a good but brand-new coach in Jerry Kill, and is debuting at Southern California.  That just does not scream upset to me.  I expect Minnesota to gradually improve over the next couple of years.  I just don't believe they have the athletes and time in the new system to beat USC.

At least they are playing a BCS Conference team...

Prediction:  USC 42, Minnesota 21 

The Miscreant Brawl: Oregon Plays LSU in Their Own Backyard and Plays There Too

The Miscreant Brawl:

Our badasses will beat yours, if either of us can keep them out of jail and NCAA hot water...

Right then...After a miserable offseason in college football, with both LSU and Oregon in the thick of it,  the two teams offer us the best opening weekend matchup.  I consider it as a kind of redemption for both teams, in a way.  Time for football.

#3 Oregon Ducks vs. #4 LSU Tigers on Saturday, September 3, 2011

The game is in Arlington, which is close enough to LSU to almost see this as a home game for the Tigers.

Oregon came tantalizingly close to their first national championship—they are deeply talented, fast and hungry again this year.  Ultimately though it was SEC defensive line muscle and SEC power running that took over in the fourth quarter for Auburn in the National Championship.  Can LSU do the same thing?  LSU has the talented defensive line strength.

This has the makings of a truly great game, and a genuine early season clash of National Championship hopefuls.  If Oregon loses they are probably out of the championship race.  If LSU loses, and then wins the SEC—that might be really interesting.

Oregon on Offense:

Oregon has two legitimate Heisman contenders that anchor a talented and prolific offense in QB Darren Thomas and RB LaMichael James.  Oregon works at an up-tempo speed, mixes up its looks, and provides some wrinkles LSU is not used to seeing.  Oregon is fully capable of turning on the speed and absolutely thrashing really good teams at a moments notice—just ask Stanford how the second half went in the Oregon game last year.  

As Boise State showed two years ago in their opener, and Auburn in last year's championship game, it is possible to disrupt the otherwise dominating Oregon offense—it involves blowing up the offense right in its own backfield.  LSU has the kind of defensive front that might be able to pull that off—except when they get caught out of position and get burned.

LSU on Defense:

The key to the game is to be able to shut down the run, just as Auburn did last year, and Boise State did the year before. That won't win the game, for Oregon is a great passing team, but it does slow the offense down, and provides a chance.  Oregon won't consistently be stopped, but they do turn the ball over at times and can be rattled.  The defense needs to pull out some key stops, especially late in the game.  LSU can—will they?

Oregon on Defense:

People underestimate the Oregon defense—it is really quite solid, despite being on the field a lot after quick Oregon scores.  Oregon has the defensive front seven to get in the backfield and disrupt Jarret Lee.  If they can do it enough, they should win.

The X-Factor:

Can Jarrett Lee run the LSU offense?  LSU has gotten by the last few years, doing well despite subpar quarterbacking, coming up with solid, if not spectacular, campaigns.  That won't be enough to beat Oregon.  

I sense something odd about QB Jordan Jefferson's suspension.  I think most of the team prefers having Jarrett Lee behind center.  After a rough early career, Jarrett Lee has grown, and is tough, war-hardened and savvy, and has come in to bring his team to victory.  

Now in his senior year, is Jarrett Lee mature enough to shine?  If his offensive line can keep the pressure off Lee, his performance might well make or break the game.  Win, and he provides LSU with moxie and confidence to win the SEC.  Lose big, and watch LSU's bubble burst.  I firmly believe Jarrett Lee is the key to this game. 

Prediction:  Jarrett Lee makes the difference!

Oh, did you want a victor?  It's really a toss-up...

What's the grass, or lack of, like in Arlington?  Is it a Mad-Hatter night?

Ah hell...

LSU 28, Oregon 27