Why a Poll Based Eight Team College Playoff Has To Expand to a 24-Team Playoff

In my post "Top Ten Dumb Reasons For a College Football Playoff"  I demonstrated why an eight-team playoff using the six BCS conference champions plus two wild cards was doomed to expansion. 

Many readers responded by claiming that an eight-team playoff that used polls and computers to select the participants would avoid the controversies of the six-conference champ plus two wild card model.

It's unusual to hear playoff advocates propose a system that uses computers and polls to determine the top eight participants.  This is because one of the key criticisms of the current system is that polls are subjective and can't be relied upon to select the best teams. 

Since I don't have a problem with computers or polls, I'm not bothered by the hypocrisy. 

I can agree that a poll based eight-team system is a far superior model to an eight-team conference based system.  In this kind of playoff, at least the matchups themselves mostly make sense. 

But an eight-team poll based system is also fated to expand to a 24-team conference champion based system.  Here's why:

1. Once you have set the precedent of an eight-team playoff, it will be easy to expand to 12 or 16 teams.  Just cut one more week off of the regular season and add one more week of playoffs.

2. In the current system only one or two teams every year feel that they should be included in the championship game.  With an eight-team playoff, every year, teams nine through 16 will be screaming to get in. 

That's more screaming—not less.

3.  Many of these "left outs" will be traditional powerhouse teams with large and influential alumni and media support systems.  For example, this year the Georgia Bulldogs and Ohio State Buckeyes would be among the left outs.  

The supporters of these teams will put tremendous pressure on the playoff organizers, whose only justification for leaving them out will be computers and subjective polls.

4.  You will still have the same absurdities. 

For example, if the season ended today, the undefeated No. 9 Boise State Broncos would be left out in favor of undefeated No. 7 Utah Utes. 

How is that settling it on the field?

Or, what if one year in the regular season, the Florida Gators lose to Georgia, but run the table otherwise, and beat two non-conference top-five teams? They end up 11-1, and ranked fifth in the country.

Georgia meanwhile, loses to two unranked teams out of conference, but wins the SEC East and wins the SEC Championship game. They end up 10-2 and ranked 10th.

Georgia stays home, while Florida goes to the playoffs, even though they didn't win the division in their conference.

5.  All the conference champions will want in, not matter what.  Every playoff system in existence has divisional champions play off against each other.  Wild cards are chosen solely on the basis of W-L records, not by polls and computers.

This year, both the Big East and ACC conference champions would get left out of a poll based eight-team playoff.  The fans will go nuts, demanding entrance.

Add to that the constant pressure, perhaps legal, from the non-BCS conference champions.

Bottom Line

The only playoff format in college football that will have any stability is a 24-team playoff, with 11 conference champions and 13 wild cards. 

That's why the college basketball tournament started with eight teams and ended up with 65 and that's why college football's Divison I-AA's tournament started with four teams and now has 20.

Playoff proponents should be honest.  Once we start a playoff, it will end up with at least 24 teams. 

If that happens, then games like this Saturday's Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Oklahoma Sooners game won't have anywhere near the same meaning.  It will just be another tune-up game for the playoffs. 

In fact, the coaches won't even reveal their whole playbook, because the game will be meaningless in terms of the national championship.

President-elect Obama, I'm talking to you. 

I'm an educated college football fan and I say let's not give up 13 weeks of playoff atmosphere football games  in exchange for three weeks of real playoffs!