Philadelphia Eagles Predictions: 8 Keys to the 2011 Season

Sixteen games, eight keys.

You could read one key every other week. Or if the suspense is killing you, go ahead and devour all eight right now. Or if you’re a loyal fan of my writing, read all of them over and over during each of the 16 weeks as a sort of meditative mantra on my analytic genius.

Option three seems exceedingly unlikely, but let me know if that’s your bag. I’ve got some household tasks that need completing.

So, what do the Eagles need to do this year to finally, finally win the franchise’s first Super Bowl championship?

Heck if I know. Making predictions about a football season is somewhere between alchemy and bloodletting on the “exact science” scale.

But that won’t stop me from trying.

For your entertainment I also equipped each slide with a video clip that in some way, either by metaphor or otherwise, represents the key in question.

Why? Because the moving picture is a wondrous thing.

Casey Matthews

Casey Matthews, linebacking savant or Mark Simoneau 2.0*?

In a short period of time, without doing anything particularly controversial besides play football, the younger Matthews brother has become the single most divisive player in the world of Eagles fandom.

His supporters laud his instincts—whatever that means—and point out the fourth-rounder has already laid claim to a spot on the first unit.

His detractors argue the Eagles would put a milking cow at MLB if she came at the right price, and that Matthews looked completely over-matched in preseason play against the Steelers.

Wherever you fall on Matthews debate, let’s go ahead and table any discussions of his potential. I know he’s taking on a lot of responsibilities as a rookie in a condensed preseason, but whether or not Matthews becomes a great player is really a moot point. The Eagles are caught in the cliche of “win-now mode,” and they need help at interior linebacker right away.

I’ll be honest, I’m worried Matthews’ inability to shed bigger blockers will overshadow whatever football instincts he has. The thought of a less experienced Simoneau trying to patrol the middle for the Birds brings back nightmares of defenses past.

Jeremiah Trotter was the prototype for MLB during the Andy Reid era, and so far Matthews bears little resemblance to the run-stuffing, brain-bashing presence Trotter provided during his prime.

Obviously I’m pulling for the youngster, but after watching the Steelers gash the middle there has to be some level of concern.

*My colleague offered the Mark Simoneau comparison. Props. Although I should mention the dude kicked an extra point in a regular season game. That was pretty awesome.

Safety First

Kurt Coleman, the Eagles' seventh-round pick from a year ago, has solidified his hold on the first safety position. And that’s the good news.

Opposite Coleman the Eagles are still looking for their next Quintin Mikell. Nate Allen showed flashes of the future last year only to shred his knee in a December showdown with the New York Giants. Nine months later he still looks a step slow.

Veteran Jarrad Page has stepped into the void left by Allen, but I doubt a player on his third team in six years is the long-term solution at the back of the defense.

I’m sure the Eagles had hopes that rookie second-rounder Jaiquawn Jarrett might challenge for a spot on the first unit, but early reports suggest he’s not ready.

Obviously the Eagles did a great deal to upgrade their secondary. That said, safety remains an area of concern.

Jim Washburn and the Wide Nine

What is the wide nine? I’m not going to pretend to know. Let’s let the geniuses at NBC Sports do the ‘splaining:

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In this system, defensive ends line up "outside the parameters of the offensive line," and utilize their speed as opposed to creative pass-rush moves to get to the quarterback. For instance, Jason Babin is an explosive player but lacks a great pass-rush repertoire. He flourished in Washburn's scheme. Speed rusher Trent Cole is going to be dangerous in the new-look defense.

"

Dang, I like the sound of that. And from a pass-rushing perspective, the early returns of Washburn’s philosophy have been encouraging. Newcomers Cullen Jenkins and Jason Babin have been at quarterbacks’ throats in the preseason, while Trent Cole continues do as Trent Cole do.

But it’s not all roses and sacks. As Ray Didinger explains, the wide nine exposes middle linebackers to bigger blockers in the run game. With the diminutive and inexperienced Casey Matthews manning the middle, that sort of unintended consequence could undermine Washburn’s scheme.

So which is more important, pass rush or run-stuffing?

I’m generally of the mind that a veteran hand like Washburn will help Juan Castillo acclimate to his new role, and it’s hard to argue with the old coach’s past success in Tennessee.

Michael Vick

Duh.

You could make the argument that Michael Vick is more important to his team’s success than any other player in the league.

The Eagles didn’t do much to upgrade the offense over the offseason under the tacit assumption that Vick will be as freakishly good as he was last season. And now that he’s so paid, Vick’s spotlight is only growing brighter.

Andy Reid has always put a lot of faith in his starting quarterbacks, and this year is no different.

LeSean McCoy

After watching the Eagles offense in its last preseason tilt against the Browns, it was easy to see how important McCoy will be to the unit.

When defenses take away the deep routes Vick prefers, McCoy will play the willing check-down option. Against Cleveland, Vick fed McCoy a steady diet of swing passes and flat routes and LeSean continued to turn those outlets into solid five- to eight-yard gains.

If McCoy can carry those instinct into the regular season then at some point defenses will be forced to creep up and take away the short game. And that’s when Vick can take shots over the top.

Wouldn’t that be swell?

Anyone who’s been paying attention the last couple of years has seen Shady develop into a fantastic all-around back. I think he’s got a great chance to continue that maturation in 2011.

Juan Castillo

How often do offensive position coaches become defensive coordinators over the course of one offseason?

(crickets)

I don’t actually know. I wish I had a number here to drive the point home, but statistics on coaching history are surprisingly scarce.

Suffice it to say, Juan Castillo didn’t appear on a lot of shortlists when Reid and Co. fired Sean McDermott at the end of last season.

So far we’ve seen good and bad from Castillo—a nice game against the Ravens followed by a let down against the Steelers followed by a really strong showing against the Browns.

Indications are that Castillo will play a pretty conventional defense—a far cry from Jim Johnson and all of those “exotic” blitzes we heard about every week for 10 seasons from the dolts at FOX—and rely on roster improvements made during the offseason.

Here’s hoping simple and stout does the trick.

Special Teams

Tons of questions surrounding this unit: new kicker, new punter and the perpetual give-and-take in the return game.

So far Alex Henery has looked solid during the games. Reports out of camp say he’s got big-league leg but enough accuracy issues to give observers pause.

Chas Henry has the looks of an NFL punter and he does return the position to its rightful American roots. But rookies are rookies. And sometimes, when the lights get brightest, they pull a Dodge.

And then there’s the punt return game, a source of constant debate on these Eagles teams since Brian Westbrook donned the midnight green. Between Westbrook and DeSean Jackson the Eagles have had two of the most talented return men in football the past decade. Problem is both were/are vital cogs to the offense.

As a result the Eagles usually stick their main man back there in big spots or when they feel they need a spark, but otherwise use some secondary option to avoid injury.

At times Jeremy Maclin has played that role in the past, but his preseason ailments make a reprise unlikely. Sinorice Moss has returned some punts in the preseason, but he’s unlikely to make the team.

So long as J.R. Reed keeps his distance the Eagles will be just fine. I’ll be curious, however, to see who plays the loyal part-timer.

Howard Mudd's Makeover

Whether or not the Eagles’ offensive line plays well this year, offensive line coach Howard Mudd has already impacted the tenor of that unit for years to come. Mudd likes smaller, quicker O-linemen and as a result the Eagles now have 2011 draft picks Danny Watkins and Jason Kelce locked into place for the foreseeable future.

For a team that used to embrace behemoths along the front five, the changes implemented by Mudd are drastic and potentially disastrous.

Of course it’s hard to question a position coach with three decades of success on his resume, but anyone watching the preseason game against the Browns has to have some level of concern. Cleveland repeatedly hit and harassed Michael Vick, and rookie center Kelce’s first audition for the starting role revealed some major holes in the youngster’s game.

So here’s the question: Will Mudd’s favor for Kelce win out over the experienced, steady hand of  veteran Jamaal Jackson? And more generally, will Mudd’s new system be firmly in place by the first week? If Mudd’s plan falls through will Andy Reid force maligned veterans like Jackson, Mike McGlynn, or Austin Howard back into the lineup?

Look, this year’s offensive line doesn’t need to be spectacular. But they do need to keep Vick upright. More than anything, that is their job. The Eagles think Mudd is the guy to get that done. He did it or years in Indianapolis and the team’s fate largely rests on his ability to transfer those lessons eastward.

Eight Tiny Keys

Great Expectations: After every loss, every failure, even every marginal success, critics will remind everyone that this was supposed to be a “dream team.” How do the Birds handle that derisive chorus of haters? As we saw with the Miami Heat, these folks will turn out in full force.

New Faces: I’m not a big believer in team chemistry when it comes to football. It’s not like baseball where the team is together every day for eight months. That said, I lived through T.O.’s demolition of the ‘05 team and I know that newcomers can turn a brew bad. Michael Vick is the undisputed leader of this team, and it will be his job to keep all of the high-profile new additions happy and contributing.

Health: It’s trite and it’s true; the healthiest teams usually do the best.  May the healing powers of Apollo be with us.

The Other Wideouts: Who steps up behind DeSean? Jeremey is sick, Steve came to town hobbling, and Jason and Riley have never played that big a role.  DeSean needs a friend to create space.

Brent Celek: Last year Celek was MIA in the passing game. MV7 has talked about getting Celek more involved as a receiver and he’s already targeted the big tight end during preseason. Is Celek due for a bounce-back year?

Danny Watkins: Post-draft we heard all about how this kid was game ready. If he doesn’t start and play capably from the get-go he’ll be considered a disappointment

Weeks 14-16: I always look for a three-game stretch on the schedule that look particularly tough or critical. Nothing really jumped out at me this year, but finishing against the Jets, Cowboys, and Redskins should provide some high end-of-season drama.

Ball Security: This one is kind of irrational, but doesn’t it seem like our three best offensive players (Vick, McCoy and Jackson) carry the ball like it’s a molding hunk of Limburger cheese? None of those guys have had consistent fumbling issues, so it’s hard to criticize. It just unnerves me, that’s all.