The BCS Somehow Works Itself Out...Again

Yes, the BCS needs tweaking—and when I say tweaking, I’m talking about the tweaking you do with a chainsaw, not a screwdriver. The field of great teams continues to expand, and I really do think that a playoff system is closer than we think.

With that said, however, for all that we do to criticize the BCS, only once or twice since its inception has it failed to deliver a good National Championship game. Before we dig any deeper into the flaws of the BCS, we should examine this past weekend of college play.

I can now say with incredible confidence that the BCS National Championship game will not only be good, but it will most likely give USC-Texas from 2006 a run for its money.

My theory is divided into three categories, all indicating that this year’s National Championship game will be a good one, and possibly even controversy-free. It essentially boils down to the losers, the winners, and the outsiders.

 

1. The losers

Penn State is out, which closes the door not only on them, but the entire Big Ten. By losing to Iowa, they all of a sudden go from being the third-best undefeated team to about the sixth or seventh-best one-loss team.

That is due partially to the way the Big Ten has looked outside of conference over the last few years, but also due to the way a number of one-loss teams are playing.

This isn’t just bad news for Penn State though. If Texas Tech and Alabama do not win out, they will suffer the same fate.

Even though it is for a different reason than Penn State, their pressures also lie on their schedules. Texas Tech faces Oklahoma, and if they make it to the Big 12 Championship game, Mizzou. The Tide faces Florida in the SEC Championship. The story is the same for both: If you lose, you are out.

 

2. The winners

On the other hand, there is absolutely no question that it will be Texas Tech and Alabama squaring off for the title if they both handle their business and win out—and that will be a good title game. People have been knocking Tech’s defense, but they have been playing very well recently and would create a very interesting matchup.

 

3. The outsiders

Remember that time I was talking about the two teams that Tech and Alabama must face in order to run the table? Well, both of those teams have only one loss and have been playing out of control.

Florida looks like they are in national championship form, and the whispers are already beginning that Alabama can’t contain the explosive Gators offense. So the SEC boils down in a very interesting manner. If the Gators win out, it means Bama doesn’t, and the Gators will be playing for a National Championship.

Oklahoma is team number two in that category, but things boil down a little differently for them. If Oklahoma wins out, they will play for a national championship. But Oklahoma also faces Oklahoma State after Tech. If they lose any of those games, or the Big 12 championship, they are out.

But there is a more important question than “Will Oklahoma lose?” That is, “If they do lose, when will it happen?” The fate of two other teams can be decided with the answer of that question.

If Oklahoma loses to Tech and/or OK State, the National Title hopeful is once again the Texas Longhorns. Texas, after all, is only in the understudy position because of a defensive breakdown in the closing seconds against Tech. Texas owns the tiebreaker against Oklahoma.

In theory, it works like this: If Oklahoma wins out, they will be in the National Championship game. If they don’t, it really depends on who they lose to or who else is losing, because it’s between Texas and Texas Tech.

Oh yeah, one more thing: All three of these teams represent the Big 12 South. If any of these teams were to lose in the Big 12 championship game, the nod may go to a team outside of the Big 12—a team that is arguably playing the best football of any college team in the country, the USC Trojans.

After losing to Oregon State, USC has gone on what I can only classify as a killing spree. If enough Big 12 damage is done in-house, USC is a one-loss team who is playing some incredible football. That could be enough to make them a team playing for the national championship.

So yes, there are still a number of different scenarios. And yes, in a college football utopia, we wouldn’t even have to have this discussion. But there are six teams alive right now, and they all control their own destiny.

Could you really ask for a better end to the college football season?