NBA Lockout: Predicting Each NBA Team's Record in a Lockout-Shortened Year

At this point, it's pretty much a guarantee that the NBA is going to miss games because of the lockout that has currently held basketball fans hostage for 34 days.  Needless to say, the future of professional basketball at the highest level in the US is in trouble.

They have problems that are much more pressing and combative than those that the NFL had, as they are dealing with actual money loss, while the NFL was simply dealing with splitting the biggest pie in the history of the world.

In a perfect world, the "talks" that started two days ago would turn into something more than David Stern complaining about player demands, players complaining about league transparency and both sides waving legal threats around (with the league actually being the first to act on these).

Realistically, the best we can hope for is a new agreement being signed sometime in the beginning of 2012, maybe near the end of December with a lot of luck, but most likely closer to the end of January.

You see, David Stern is a bit of a lockout veteran at this point, and he knows that the owners can last a lot longer without a viable source of basketball income than most of the players, a surprising number of whom live paycheck-to-paycheck.  He and the owners will outlast the players, and they should be able to break them before long.

Until then, we are stuck in a professional basketball-less world.

There is one interesting caveat to this lockout, however: it could completely alter how we think teams are going to finish the season.  If we end up with a 50-game season like in 1999, there is a large chance that veteran teams are going to be helped, while young teams will struggle and fail to make the playoffs because they couldn't mesh quickly enough.

That is exactly what I looked at for you guys, so I put together a record for every team based on what would probably be a 50-game season if the lockout ends sometime in January.

15. Cleveland Cavaliers: 8-42

The Cleveland Cavaliers have a very young and lumpy team (as opposed to well-rounded).

Their best player was injured for most of last season, their most promising young player was abruptly traded away before the lockout and they will likely start two rookies on opening day.

In a 50-game season they will have to put it all together on the fly with an abbreviated training camp and very little room for error.  But there will be error, oh how there will be error.

14. Charlotte Bobcats: 10-40

You could play 50 games, you could play 150 games; one thing that isn't going to change is that the Charlotte Bobcats are going to be terrible.

I think that if a full season is played, they could make a run at the Cavaliers for the worst record in the league, but they will have to actively work hard to do it if the season is shortened.

When your best player is Corey Maggette, you are in big trouble.

13. Toronto Raptors: 14-36

DeMar DeRozan is a popular choice to make a good jump in production this season, but he isn't going to be jumping enough to take the Raptors to the playoffs, or even to the playoff race.

The Raptors currently have seven players on their team from overseas, which I kind of see as a problem.  Playing with such a tightly knit group of people for so long with such an obvious rift between the American and international players, it seems like cliques would form and the team wouldn't hang out as a group as much as a team with one or two guys from overseas that can be easily absorbed into the bigger group.  It could be a negative on their chemistry.

This may just be me rambling about a problem that doesn't really exist, but hey, it seems to be kind of a legitimate concern to me.

12. Washington Wizards: 15-35

Another young team who is going to need time to fit all their puzzle pieces together is Washington who are going to be relying mostly on guys who have been in the league for fewer than five seasons.

With a ton of their money tied up in Rashard Lewis (54.5 percent of their current payroll), and their philosophy seemingly being to play for the future rather than now, they may not be looking to waste money on veterans who could get them to mesh quicker.

They should be an exciting team, but in a lockout-shortened season, they will probably be screwed.

11. Detroit Pistons: 21-29

Until they completely blow up their team, Detroit will not be able to shake themselves away from the middle of the pack, no matter how many games there are in a season.

They still have some decent players that are going to allow them to win some games, but they are not nearly bad enough yet to compete for the bottom spot in the league with the Cavs and Bobcats.

That seems like a good thing, but really, it's better to hope for an awful team for a few seasons to get some good draft picks than to stay mediocre for five or six years.

10. Milwaukee Bucks: 23-27

The Milwaukee Bucks could very well be a playoff team after trading for Stephen Jackson and Beno Udrih, but I don't see it happening in a short year.

It seems like they will need a while to feel everything out. Whether Brandon Jennings continues to regress, whether Stephen Jackson will stop giving a damn if the team falters early and whether Andre Bogut is completely healthy will be big factors.

If we were looking at an 82-game season, I would at least have them ninth, or probably in the playoffs, but without that buffer zone of 20 or so games to really feel out their lineup at the beginning of the season, I just don't see it happening.

9. Indiana Pacers: 23-27

I really loved the way the Pacers played last year, and I like that it got them to the playoffs; I just don't know if it's going to happen again.

There are just too many questions with this team for me to be certain about anything.  Is Tyler Hansbrough for real?  Is Darren Collison going to step up and prove that he can be "The Man" for Indiana?  Can Danny Granger play any kind of defense that makes me like him on that end of the floor?  How will George Hill affect their team?  Will Paul George continue to be completely awesome?

With so many things in flux, and with all the doubts, I just can't see them progressing this season, but they should be good down the line.

8. Philadelphia 76ers: 25-25

I like Andre Iguodala as a leader, Evan Turner as a player to step up this season and Jrue Holiday and Lou Williams as nice threats as guards.

Otherwise, they have decent big men, some pretty good backups and they play in the Eastern Conference, which should be good enough for them to battle for the bottom playoff spots in any number of games.

However, if they trade Iguodala, all bets are off.

7. New Jersey Nets: 26-24

Probably the most intriguing team of this season, if the New Jersey Nets can land a nice free agent to compliment Deron Williams like Jamal Crawford, then they could grab a playoff spot.

Then there is always the chance that Williams likes basketball in Europe too much, turns into a god to the hardwood fans overseas and never comes back.  I would say that this kid would have the opposite reaction that he had on this day.

6. Atlanta Hawks: 29-21

I don't believe that the Atlanta Hawks have a realistic shot at winning an NBA Championship with their current roster, but they have the ability to easily make the playoffs and compete for a top-five spot.

They could be better in a shortened season, as they can get on a roll and kill it for two weeks, leading to a good chunk of wins that comes quickly. They definitely shouldn't be hurt at all by the short season.

5. New York Knicks: 32-18

The Knicks are a team that could go either way with a lockout-shortened season, with last season completely made up of streaks.

Here's how last year went: won three of five, lost six straight, won 13 of 14, lost five of seven, won four of five, lost six straight, won three of four, lost four of five, won eight of 11, lost nine of 10, won seven of nine.

I think they should be better this year with more consistency in who is playing in their lineup, but there is still the threat of that streakiness, which could be a godsend or a killer in a short season.

4. Orlando Magic: 32-18

As long as the big man is down low, Orlando is going to get enough wins to compete for a top-four spot in the Eastern Conference.

Their biggest problem is that they are not built for the tough knock-em-down, drag-em-out style of games that the playoffs bring.

They can shoot their way into a good record in the regular season, but they can also shoot their way out of the playoffs pretty easily.

3. Boston Celtics: 34-16

Boston and their lineup of geriatrics should relish the opportunity to play a 50-game season.

They may not do any better or any worse record-wise than they would in a regular length season, but they will all have fresh knees that allow them to play with all of the ability and explosiveness possible without worrying about breaking a hip.

Boston could very well get a title run out of a lockout-shortened season, especially if they come in with revenge on their minds.

2. Chicago Bulls: 37-13

Chicago proved that they are a force to be reckoned with in the East, even ravished by injuries all season last year, so there is no real reason to believe that they will regress much.

Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer should be completely healthy, and maybe that was the problem in the playoffs this year.

Boozer caught a lot of flack for his lackluster performance against Chris Bosh in the Eastern Conference Finals, but there is a possibility that he never fully healed from his broken hand that he suffered last offseason.

1. Miami Heat: 39-11

The Miami Heat are what they are, and what they are is a team that will win a ton of games in the regular season and have to prove doubters wrong when the playoffs roll around.

They will have a lineup of stiffs after their big three, including Udonis Haslem, Mario Chalmers and half of Mike Miller, but they are still going to win enough games to put them in the top two or three in the East, and probably enough to put them at No. 1.

They shouldn't worry about the number of games they are going to play in the regular season; they should just worry about the number they will play after it ends.

15. Sacramento Kings: 10-40

The Sacramento Kings have more pieces coming in and going out than any other team in the NBA right now, and it's going to be hard to put it all together, especially with their team being comprised mostly of young guys.

John Salmons and J.J. Hickson figure to play big roles for them, but they are going to have to figure out what they will be. Plus they have to figure out how to use Jimmer Fredette, all while making up for the loss of Beno Udrih and Omri Casspi.

It's going to take a bit of time to figure out how they want to run things, something they won't exactly have in a short season.

14. Minnesota Timberwolves: 13-37

Minnesota has to bring in a brand new point guard who may or may not be the savior of their franchise, so it's going to be hard to get things perfect right away.

They are going to have some games in which they look like they are going to be pretty good on down the line, but they will be few and far between, and will likely stay near the bottom of the league if the lockout brings us down to 50 or so games.

13. Phoenix Suns: 16-34

This prediction pretty much assumes that the Phoenix Suns trade Steve Nash, and if they don't then there is something wrong with their front office.

Phoenix without Steve Nash is going to be like a car without tires, a balloon without helium, peanut butter without jelly; it just doesn't work.

In a full season without Nash, it would be difficult for them to win 30 games, so it makes sense that in a season about two-thirds as long, it would be difficult for them to get to 20 wins.

12. Golden State Warriors: 18-32

I don't believe that the Golden State Warriors are going to end up trading Monta Ellis this year, but I also don't believe that they are going to be any good.

It doesn't help that Golden State was prone to long periods of losing early in the year last season, losing 16 of 19 games between November 11th and December 20th.

Plus, they are going to have to adjust to a new coach with just over a week of training camp and get into his system right away.

11. Denver Nuggets: 20-30

Denver did a great job without Carmelo Anthony after the trade deadline this year, but I just see that as more of a fluky thing that happened rather than something that we should put much stock in.

Realistically, Denver will probably be losing Nene and Kenyon Martin, plus J.R. Smith will probably end up somewhere else. Then, they could also lose Arron Afflalo or Wilson Chandler if they choose not to meet whatever offer other teams give them.

10. New Orleans Hornets: 22-28

The New Orleans Hornets may be owned by the NBA right now, but they have to trade Chris Paul; there is no getting around it.

They have a few big question marks in David West over whether he is going to be healthy next year or even if he is going to be on the team, so there is no way Paul will re-sign next offseason.

With Chris Paul gone they will bottom out and look like a group of third graders playing on the hardwood.

9. LA Clippers: 25-25

I have high expectations for the young Los Angeles Clippers who should have very few problems with getting into their system, as they have all played together for a good year.  Plus, if they decide to move Chris Kaman, they could get a very good piece.

This year, I also expect some of their role players to pick up some slack and DeAndre Jordan to break out, so they should be in the thick of the competition for a playoff spot.

8. Houston Rockets: 27-23

I am totally buying into Houston Rockets basketball right now, and I'm not 100 percent on why I am doing that.

Realistically, they have no center (even their 6'6" Chuck Hayes is a free agent and could get wooed away) and their team is pretty much a hodgepodge of strange players.

I just think that they play so differently than everyone else that they are going to be able to win long stretches of games and grab a playoff spot.

7. Utah Jazz: 28-22

Utah stunned the world by trading away Deron Williams, but it was pretty much the smartest thing we saw a basketball team do all year.

They still have Al Jefferson, Andrei Kirilenko (if he re-signs) and Mehmet Okur getting over an injury, so they have a nice core of players.  Plus they have Devon Harris,, who could have a nice turnaround year, as well as Paul Millsap and Derrick Favors, both of whom have promising futures.

6. Portland Trail Blazers: 30-20

Killer defense, team basketball and the hopes of a potential franchise center playing a full season are enough to get people in Portland to love their basketball team, and it should be enough to get them into the playoffs.

A short season should help them, because they have fewer minutes to log on the court, and that means a reduced chance that someone should develop a freak injury and see their knees fall out of the bottoms of their feet.

Portland has always been intriguing to me, I mean if Greg Oden wasn't built like a geriatric with joints that creak like an 80-year-old tractor, and if Brandon Roy's knees never exploded, Portland would the best team in basketball right now, without a doubt.  Even with those two guys decimated, they are one of the top teams in the league.

5. Memphis Grizzlies: 31-19

I jumped onto the Memphis Grizzlies bandwagon about two weeks before the playoffs this year and I am looking forward to seeing them improve this season.

Even though they don't have a full year of development to work with if a lockout happens, I feel like they are going to be able to improve as a team, especially after the playoffs they went through last year.

Rudy Gay should be healthy, Marc Gasol looks like he could make a jump and become a top-seven center and Zach Randolph looked visibly upset after losing Game 7 to the Oklahoma City Thunder.  I don't want to say he's a man on a mission, but he was clearly not happy.

4. Oklahoma City Thunder: 34-16

Kevin Durant's Thunder looked like the team to make a big jump before last season, and they look like it again.  However, with the three old teams in front of them given new life by a short season, they will have to wait just a bit longer to jump higher than fourth.

They will be a great team just as they were last year and they could win a championship, but I don't think they will be as great as the next three teams.

3. Dallas Mavericks: 35-15

Jason Kidd needs a rest; that much is evident when watching the 38-year-old point guard who seems to be slowing down with every step.  The same goes for just about every other member of the Dallas Mavericks.

If they are able to re-sign the majority of their free agents then they should make a return to the top three in the Western Conference.

2. San Antonio Spurs: 36-14

Old Reliable was looking like he was closer to retirement than his rookie season for the first year in his career last season, and it was a bit depressing.

Greg Poppovich obviously told him to keep it in third gear most of the time until the playoffs, and it worked during the regular season; they just got ambushed by a bad matchup with the Grizzlies.

Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker will once again carry a big portion of the load, but Duncan should be able to carry more in a 50-game season.

1. Los Angeles Lakers: 37-13

A win streak here, a win streak there, Kobe Bryant looking like he is 28 years old again 35 games into the season and boom, the Lakers are in first place.

Bryant won't have to worry about playing a marathon season, so he will be fresher near the end of the season, leading to more wins then and more wins in the playoffs.

I wouldn't be surprised to see another Lakers-Celtics NBA Finals matchup in 2012, but then again I wouldn't be entirely surprised to see Chicago-Memphis or Miami-Oklahoma City either.

Enjoy my writings?  Follow me at http://twitter.com/#!/JDorsey33.