Utah-TCU Preview: Turnovers, Special Teams Key to Monumental MWC Matchup

When TCU and Utah square off in Salt Lake City, it will perhaps be the biggest game in Mountain West Conference history.  Never before have two teams from the conference met each other so late in the year with both having a legitimate shot at the BCS—Utah for its second time and TCU trying to make its first trip to the big party.

Regardless of the outcome, it would be a win-win situation for either team if the winning opponent could make it to a BCS game.  It would bring more prestige and more money to the conference, and it would get the human voters even more used to the idea of non-BCS teams being good enough to make it to a BCS bowl.

Most intriguing—unless you are a Ute fan—would be TCU going to a BCS bowl with one loss.  This would actually benefit every non-BCS team and make it that much easier for a one-loss team to make it next time.

It is the camel’s nose under the tent.  The flap has to be raised a little at a time so that eventually non-BCS power teams, such as Boise State or BYU, can eventually play in a national championship.

Whatever the outcome, the game should be close and fun to watch.  On paper the teams are pretty evenly matched up.  Their offenses both have balanced attacks and move the ball about the same number of yards per game, just over 405, while both defenses have been stubborn in giving up yards.

The Horned Frogs, however, have had much more success in preventing opponents from scoring, allowing just over 10 points per game, whereas the Utes are giving up a little over 17 per contest.  Meanwhile, each offensive unit is scoring over 36 points per game.

Perhaps because TCU’s defense is so highly regarded and has the stats to merit it, the purple and white are slight favorites according to the oddsmakers. Utah, though ahead of TCU all season in the polls and more recently in the BCS standings, will be a two- to four-point underdog on its own field.

However, with two such evenly matched teams, you have to look to two components to determine the winner: turnovers and special teams.  TCU has the edge on turnovers, being plus-15 on the season, while Utah is only plus-one.

Turnovers, however, can be streaky, and even a team with a great plus margin can go into a game and suddenly have all its luck run out.  Still, we have to consider that with Andy Dalton playing carefully, TCU should do OK.

Regarding the special teams, we have to give a big nod to Utah.  Louie Sakoda is definitely one of the best all-around kickers in the country, if not the best.  He has also proven that he performs very well under pressure.

Sakoda should be able to keep the ball out of Aaron Brown’s hands on kickoffs, and since opponents are averaging only 2.5 yards per return on punts, the Horned Frogs cannot expect much there.

In fact, if Jeremy Kerley is not in the game, which seems likely, punt returns could be a big problem for TCU.  Last week, with Kerley not making the trip to Las Vegas, TCU fumbled three punts.

They certainly could not have had much time to work on this in the short week, so with Sakoda kicking, about the best strategy for the Frogs would simply be to plan on fair-catching everything. 

Kerley’s absence could also present two other problems for the Frogs. He is the holder on field goals and extra points, and he also is the primary element in the direct-snap “Wild Frog” formation.  Since they started using the direct snap, TCU’s offense has come alive—it has been the spark to ignite them.

However, if TCU wants to use the direct snap against the Utes, they could have to rely on true freshman Antoine Hicks, who has only touched the ball 17 times in his career.  In a tight game on the road, using him could invite a fumble.

So, as mentioned above, although TCU has a large turnover advantage, the absence of Kerley invites turnovers and miscues in three areas: punt returns, field goals/extra points, and the direct snap.

The Frogs do have an excellent punter in Anson Kelton and an equally good field goal kicker in Ross Evans.  However, these freshmen are untested and unproven since TCU has yet to really play a tight game against a big opponent.  In particular, if it comes down to a game of field goals, I would certainly not bet on TCU’s freshman over Louie Sakoda. 

An interesting note in regard to field goals is that there has only been one field goal kicked against TCU all year, and that was in the first game.  TCU has gone nine games without having a successful field goal kicked against them.

Finally, there is the weather.  If the temperature stays above 35 degrees, I don’t see it being a problem for TCU.  However, if the wind is blowing and the chill factor is low, then the boys from Cowtown could have trouble, especially passing the ball. If Mother Nature decides to turn things for the worse, I give the nod to Utah.

Overall, this game is too close to call.