Stanford-Oregon Preview: Run, Duckies, Run!

When I first saw Memorial Stadium on TV last week, two thoughts ran through my head almost simultaneously:

“Man, am I glad I’m going to school in Hawaii.”

“It’s a good sign. Rainy conditions always favor the team from Oregon!”

So much for my career as a soothsayer.

I wrote last week that the team that had the positive turnover margin would win the game. What I hadn’t expected was that the Ducks would be unable to convert their turnovers into points. Cal gained fewer turnovers but scored more points off the ones they did get, and that was the difference.

Looking at the yardage for the first two quarters, one would think the Bears had run away with the game at halftime. But Oregon’s defense kept the Ducks’ heads above water with turnovers that stopped Cal drives cold. The only problem was that the Ducks turned five turnovers into just six points and went into halftime trailing.

At the very beginning of the fourth quarter, it seemed like things had finally turned around. The two Jeremiahs were running all over the field, the Ducks had narrowed the gap to three points, and it was 3rd-and-1 inside the 20—but a false start, failed conversion, and missed field goal later, and everything seemed to go up in smoke.

Once more, though, the Ducks' defense came to the rescue, forcing a punt with over eight minutes to go. One more good drive could give the Ducks a lead that they just might be able to hold onto.

But then Jairus Byrd muffed the ensuing punt (he did make the right call with the fair catch at that part of the field, according to Mike Bellotti at his weekly press conference), Cal recovered the ball, punched it in, and it was all she wrote. Oregon’s anemic passing game couldn’t muster a comeback, and the Ducks' hopes for a Pac-10 title went down the tubes.

Jeremiah Masoli was knocked out late with niggling injuries that added up over the course of the game, according to Bellotti, but has practiced and is expected to start against Stanford. LeGarrette Blount had a miserable day running the ball and was injured to boot. His status will not be known until Friday.

All of this leads up to a must-win game for the Ducks when they host the Cardinal this weekend at Autzen Stadium. Oregon has yet to beat a team that currently possesses a winning record, and if they don’t take care of business against Stanford, their probable destinations in the postseason look bleak with feisty Arizona and the Civil War still to go.

Stanford also has their backs against the wall. The Cardinal are one win away from bowl eligibility for the first time in far too long. But after their visit to Eugene they must play both USC and Cal. Winning just one of those games would be pretty impressive, and winning both will be next to impossible. Hence, the desperation factor may favor Harbaugh’s team.

This weekend’s game features a tantalizing matchup of strength against strength. Oregon leads the Pac-10 conference in rushing per game by over 50 yards over the second-place team, Stanford.

When it comes to passing defense, there is only one team in the Pac-10 that has struggled more than the Ducks—the Cardinal. But both teams are stout against the run, with Stanford trailing Oregon in rushing defense by only 0.2 yards a game.

Neither team’s struggling secondary should be tested much by the opposition though, as the Ducks are seventh in the conference in passing offense while the Cardinal are dead last.

On paper, this looks to be about as even a matchup as one will get. However, both teams have some intangibles going for them, starting with special teams.

Matt Evenson leads the conference is scoring but has been woefully inconsistent all year. If it came down to a duel of kickers in the clutch, one would have to favor the Cardinal. However, assuming they avoid any major gaffes like the muff last week, Oregon would seem to have an edge in the return game.

If you like to see teams run the ball, you won’t find a better game to watch all season. The team that best establishes its running game and is better able to take advantage of turnovers will emerge the victor.

With Autzen behind them, the Ducks should be able to match the Cardinal’s intensity. I think Oregon has a very slight edge in overall athleticism, so I predict they will survive a close, hard-hitting contest.

Of course, if either team manages to pull a passing game out of its butt, all bets are off.

MY VERDICT: Oregon Ducks 35, Stanford Cardinal 28

Parting Thought: If you are a Duck fan who is having a bad day, do NOT click here. Trust me, this is much scarier than anything you saw on Halloween.