College Football Preview: Week 11

WEDNESDAY 11/5:
Northern Illinois at Ball State, 8 (ESPN 2)
Toledo at Akron, 8 (ESPN U)

THURSDAY 11/6:
Maryland at Virginia Tech, 7:30 (ESPN)
TCU at Utah, 8 (CBS College)

FRIDAY 11/7:
Nevada at Fresno State, 9 (ESPN 2)

SATURDAY 11/8:
Michigan at Minnesota, 12 (ESPN)
Ohio State at Northwestern, 12 (ESPN 2)
Syracuse at Rutgers, 12 (ESPN U)
Purdue at Michigan State, 12 (BTN)
Wisconsin at Indiana, 12 (BTN)
Baylor at Texas, 12 (FSN)
Iowa State at Colorado, 12:30 (Versus)
Alabama at LSU, 3:30 (CBS)
Clemson at Florida State, 3:30 (ABC/ESPN)
Penn State at Iowa, 3:30 (ABC/ESPN)
Oklahoma at Texas A&M, 3:30 (ABC)
Marshall at East Carolina, 3:30 (CBS College)
Stanford at Oregon, 3:30 (FSN)
Virginia at Wake Forest, 3:30 (ESPN U)
Cincinnati at West Virginia, 7 (ESPN U)
Kansas State at Missouri, 7 (FSN)
Oklahoma State at Texas Tech, 8 (ABC)
California at USC, 8 (ABC)
Notre Dame at Boston College, 8 (ESPN)
Florida at Vanderbilt, 8 (ESPN 2)
Tulane at Houston, 8 (CBS College)

GAMES OF THE WEEK:

Alabama at LSU

While the Tide have a nearly insurmountable two game lead in the loss column of the SEC West, this game is stealing the headlines anyways. Of course, this is Nick Saban’s first visit to Baton Rouge since hastily leaving for the NFL, only to return to the SEC and Alabama a couple years later.

From what I’ve gathered, LSU fans do not respect Saban, so this could get interesting on Saturday. Too bad it isn’t a night game, because Tiger Stadium is an electrifying place under the lights.

While most, if not all, the players Saban recruited to LSU are no longer with the program, there is still plenty of motivation to beat their previous coach and ruin his hopes at a national championship. Alabama appears to be on a collision course with Florida in a SEC Championship Game that very well may send the winner to the BCS title contest, but this is not a lock by any stretch.

The Tide must put all of the Saban homecoming distractions aside, and use a balanced attack to keep a struggling LSU defense on their toes. The dual threat Jarrett Lee and Andrew Hatch will challenge the Alabama defense, but if they turn the ball over, the Tigers stand almost no chance at victory.

Final score: Alabama 28 LSU 23.

TCU at Utah

Probably only one mid-major will be invited to the BCS (I cannot see the bowl committees selecting an additional team even if more than one is in the BCS Top 16), making this one of the year’s most important games that you probably will not hear enough about.

The list of flies in the ointment currently includes TCU, Utah, Boise State, and longshot Ball State (some folks might even include BYU on this list). TCU lost to Oklahoma, while the other three are undefeated. Boise State will probably eventually lose out thanks to the weaker WAC slate, so assuming either: a. TCU wins, or b. Utah wins and then defeats BYU in two weeks, the automatic bid for a mid-major school will go to a team from the Mountain West (this all assumes at least one mid-major finishes in the Top 16).

I could see Boise State moving back into the driver’s seat if Utah wins Thursday and then falls to BYU. I am sure the Utes saw what the Horned Frogs’ defense did to the powerful BYU offense: they essentially made them look silly. Their offense put up just 13 points against New Mexico a week ago, so let’s see how they respond to the challenge of going up against one of the nation’s top defenses.

I still like Utah considering the home-field advantage.

Ohio State at Northwestern

Northwestern has been one of the present surprises in the Big 10 this year, and at 7-2, have themselves in line for a great bowl game. Ohio State, meanwhile, appears destined to not at least share the conference title for the first time in four years. This is still a great matchup for several reasons.

Obviously, both teams are in the top 25 and bowl positioning is at stake. But the Wildcats could use a signature win to prove that they are a legitimate team and will be a difficult opponent in upcoming years.

It won’t be easy.

The Buckeyes won 58-7 in Columbus a year ago, 54-10 in 2006, and 48-7 in 2005. If Northwestern doesn’t let those previous results dictate their effort, they will have a shot. But I am not quite convinced they have the talent to pull off the upset.

Georgia Tech at North Carolina

With four weeks to go in the regular season, no one has a clear idea of who will represent the ACC’s Atlantic and Coastal Divisions in the conference championship. But the last time I checked, Georgia Tech and North Carolina are the two highest ranked teams in the league, and you could probably argue they are the ACC’s most complete teams.

The Yellow Jackets’ conference championship hopes are in their own hands as they play at UNC and Miami at home to finish out their conference slate. If they can sweep those games, all that would be needed to secure a spot in Tampa would be a loss by Virginia and Virginia Tech (and the Commonwealth rivals have yet to face off).

The key to this game will be the Heels’ ability to slow down the Tech triple option, something very few teams have done effectively. Their job will be made easier if QB Josh Nesbitt is unable to suit up due to an injury suffered against Florida State.

Oklahoma State at Texas Tech

With the exhilarating win over Texas, the Red Raiders are in the driver’s seat of the Big 12 South. But hold onto your horses folks: they still have to play both Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. This thing is far from over, and the potential reverberations of these matchups will be felt from Tuscaloosa, Alabama to Gainesville, Florida to State College, Pennsylvania, and everywhere in between.

The Pokes are very much alive in the wide open South race as well, but they need to pull off the win on the road and receive some help from a Texas opponent down the line. They’d also have to win the Bedlam Game.

You have to wonder if the fatigue factor will affect Tech the way I am sure it did for Texas a week ago in their loss in Lubbock. Playing back-to-back games (or in the case of Texas, back-to-back-to-back-to-back) with major implications in the conference and on the national scale is draining.

Meanwhile, OK State should be well rested after dismantling Iowa State at home last Saturday. The possibility of a letdown is out there for Texas Tech, so Mike Leach will have to work extra diligently to have his team ready for Saturday night. I am sure he will, and the Raiders pull out a close victory.

California at USC

The mighty Men of Troy have really only been challenged twice since diving into Pac 10 play: the loss at Oregon State in late September, and a close win at Arizona two weeks ago.

Otherwise, they’ve beat up on Oregon, Arizona State, and the Washington schools (said Washington and Washington State were outscored by a combined margin of 125-0 against USC…I’m not sure if this proves more that USC is really good or the Apple Cup participants are worthy of a demotion to FCS).

Cal should at least keep the Trojans honest in a game that will have a large say in who wins the Pac 10 and heads to the Rose Bowl. At this point in time, USC is going to have to hope for some help from around the country if they want to do anything beyond visiting the Rose Bowl.

Their strength of schedule is killing them in the BCS standings currently, and this team could really use a convincing win against a strong Golden Bears’ squad.

OTHER GAMES TO KEEP AN EYE ON:

Maryland at Virginia Tech

I mentioned above how confusing the ACC race currently is, and I am sure this game will do nothing to help clear it up. In fact, things will probably move even closer to complete chaos.

Maryland is the only team in the conference left with only one loss, but I don’t think it would be accurate or fair to say they are the league’s best. My opinion may change based on their performance in Blacksburg on Thursday night against a good Hokies defense. We’ll wait and see.

Kansas at Nebraska
You didn’t think the Huskers would forget about giving up 76 points to the Jayhawks a year ago did you? Well, here’s a chance for revenge against a team they have thoroughly dominated since the 60s.

Unfortunately for Nebraska, I don’t know if their defense is up to the challenge of slowing down a Kansas offense that still has all of the same weapons as one year ago. They gave up 62 points to a strong Oklahoma offense one week ago.

Marshall at East Carolina

The Herd and Pirates are currently tied for first in Conference USA’s Eastern Division, and judging by the fact that no one else is within two games in the loss column, this game will likely determine who heads to the conference title game on December 6.

It wasn’t that long ago that ECU was making headway in the rankings, but three losses in a row hurt any hopes they had of being a BCS buster. But there is still plenty to play for in Greenville.

Cincinnati at West Virginia

Don’t look now, but here come the Mountaineers. At 3-0 in league play, West Virginia has to be considered the overwhelming favorite to win the conference’s automatic BCS berth, but there is still work to be done.

Cincinnati is just a game back in the Big East standings and coming off an impressive victory over South Florida at home last Thursday night. After falling by five to WVU at home last year, the Bearcats should be ready to give them another challenge on Saturday.

Florida at Vanderbilt

Florida has won very impressively the past two weeks (although their win over Georgia bordered on douchebaggery after taking two timeouts in the last minute of a 49-10 game), but now is not the time to rest on their laurels.

Vandy is coming off a bye week, and after three consecutive losses, is still looking for that magical sixth win that would likely send them to their first bowl game since 1982. The Commodores have been known to play up to their opponents, and if a Gators team that is climbing the rankings is not careful, they could come back crashing to Earth with their second loss of the season.