Alabama-LSU: Statistically, Bama is Favored Across the Board

Trickle Down Economics and Pigskin Prognostication Week 10

By Mitchell Carter

Alabama at LSU

Death Valley.

The name itself strikes fear into the hearts of players across the nation and sends women into tears. When rivals find themselves having to play in LSU’s Tiger Stadium, they hide the women, children, and booze, none of which are safe on the bayou.

LSU’s home turf is viewed as one of the most foreboding venues in all of college football, but you know the old saying: “The Tide don’t lose in Baton Rouge.”

From 1971 to 1998, the Crimson Tide held an unprecedented 14-0-1 record on LSU’s home field, with the lone blemish being a 14-14 tie in 1985.

The coach to finally break Alabama’s streak of wins “on the bayou” now walks the sideline for Alabama and takes his undefeated and top ranked Crimson Tide into Baton Rouge, for a showdown of SEC Western division front runners, in a game scheduled for a 2:30 kickoff this Saturday.

If someone had suggested in the preseason that when these two teams met, one would be ranked number one in the land, the smart money would have been on LSU, but Alabama is one of the surprise stories of the 2008 football season.

Perfect thus far, the Crimson Tide has not always played like a national contender. While struggles against lightly regarded Tulane, Ole Miss, and Kentucky still leave a question mark in many people’s minds about how good Alabama really is, the fact that Bama has trailed only once this season.

Even then, it was just by three points and for less than two minutes. That is impossible to ignore. Still, a decisive win in hostile Tiger Stadium would go a long way toward quieting the critics.

Statistical Comparison

Alabama entered the 2008 season with major question marks on defense, but after nine games finds itself with one of the top ranked defensive units in the SEC. The Alabama defense trails just Florida in scoring defense, and by only six tenths of a point per game.

In rushing defense, Alabama trails only South Carolina, and the Tide yields only seven tenths of a yard per game more than the Gamecocks. One game could easily push the Tide to number one in both categories.

In terms of passing defense, Alabama is seventh in the SEC in yards allowed at 185 per game. However Bama’s fast starts on offense have forced opponents to throw far more often than normal, and Bama has defended 83 more attempts than the league leading South Carolina defense.

A more telling number might be the average per pass, where Bama leads the league, giving up just 5.2 yards per throw. As the numbers play out, Alabama is fourth in pass efficiency defense at 101.4, just 3.2 points off of the league leader.

In rushing defense, nobody is better than the Tide, with the Bama defense allowing just 65.6 yards per game on the ground. That's a full 20 yards less than Georgia, who is ranked second in that category.

Defensively, National Champion LSU was solid in 2007; however, they were beginning to slide from being the dominant unit that they had been in years past. After allowing just 164 points through 14 games in 2006, the 2007 Bengal Tigers gave up 279.

Always a hallmark of Saban-led teams, the 2003 national champions gave up just 154 points on the season. Through eight games in 2008, the Tiger defense has already surrendered 198 points, including 51 to Florida, and 52 to Georgia.

While Les Miles coached teams have long been known for strong offenses, at Oklahoma State his teams had a tendency to give up large point totals against good offenses. The Miles led Cowboys gave up over 40 points six times in his four seasons, and over 50 points an additional three times.

After eight games, LSU finds itself ranked fifth in rushing defense, allowing just over 105 yards per game, and eighth in passing defense, at 191.5 yards per game.

A telltale number is that LSU has allowed 10 rushing touchdowns on the season, compared with Alabama’s one; those numbers suggest that LSU may be a bit softer in the middle than might be expected with their low average per game and per carry (3.5).

Part of the reason for the padded run-defense stats may be that LSU has played some horrible rushing offenses; MSU and South Carolina are 10th and 12th in the league in rushing, and LSU has played both.

Also on LSU’s schedule was D1AA Appalachian State, and North Texas (who ranks 82nd in Rushing). While Alabama has admittedly played Tennessee (who ranks 11th), the Tide and LSU share a common SEC opponent in UGA, who Alabama held to just 50 yards while LSU allowed 194. Against Tulane, Alabama surrendered 86, while LSU posted a similar number at 72. Factoring out LSU’s two sacks, the numbers were almost identical.

The LSU passing defense is allowing about a yard per attempt more than Alabama, and has just four interceptions on the season compared to Alabama’s 11. Again looking at the only common opponent in UGA, Stafford completed 17 of 26 against LSU (65.3 percent) with 2 TDs and no interceptions, for an average of 14.6 yards per completion.

Against Alabama, Stafford threw for 272 yards on 24-of-42 (57.1 percent) with two TDs and one INT, for an average of 11.3 yards per completion.

LSU and Alabama each recorded one sack against Stafford, while LSU surrendered two to the UGA defense and Alabama surrendered one.

The Alabama offense was expected to be solid this season, even to the point of having to carry the team.

While Alabama is next to last in the league in passing, the Tide has shown the ability to throw the ball when necessary, completing over 60 percent of passes with only five interceptions on the year.

When you lead the league in rushing, passing is not always needed, and that has been much of the story in 2008.

Having jumped out to large leads on multiple occasions, Bama has often been content to grind it out in the second half. Alabama is averaging 205.3 yards per game on the ground, almost 11 yards per game more than Florida, who is ranked second in that category.

LSU’s rushing attack is ranked third in the SEC with 186.1 yards gained per game. Since Alabama and LSU have not played many common opponents, it might be beneficial to examine the defenses faced, and where they rank nationally against the run.

Alabama has played:

Clemson - 54
Tulane - 71
WKU - 90
Arkansas - 85
UGA - 7
UK - 49
Mississippi - 23
Tennessee - 15
Ark. St. - 63

Average Rank: 50.77

LSU has played:

Appalacian State - N/A (87 in FCS)
North Texas - 103
Auburn - 61
MSU - 66
Florida - 13
South Carolina - 22
UGA - 7
Tulane - 71

Average Ranking: (FBS only) 49

Appalacian State raises that number significantly, and LSU posted 266 yards against the FCS foe - their highest output of the season. Still, the two teams have played similar rushing defenses, and removing the Appy state game from LSU’s record - while it lowers their avg per game by 12 yards, does not lower their ranking in-conference.

Head-to-Head: Alabama on Offense

When Alabama is on offense, expect the Tide to test the middle of the LSU defense in the early going. With two games worth of film showing LSU giving up a combined 918 yards of offense, including 459 on the ground, the Alabama offensive staff has sufficient ammunition to devise a game plan to attack LSU weaknesses.

It is interesting to look at the success UGA had against LSU. In many ways, Georgia is the SEC team that Alabama most closely resembles. There are some fundamental differences in offensive methodology, but both teams rely on a run-first approach.

Georgia is perhaps better equipped for throwing the ball on later downs, but both teams mix up the play calling and use the run to set up the pass.

While Bama does not have a back the caliber of Moreno, the combination of Coffee (power with good speed), Ingram (power with good cutting ability), and Upchurch (fast to the hole with a great first cut), makes for a similar package and keeps fresh legs on the field.

Georgia moved the ball consistently for most of the game against LSU, with Moreno having a 68 yard TD run in the third quarter.

The LSU secondary was victimized by A.J. Green, and while John Parker Wilson may not have Stafford’s arm, Julio Jones has the ability to give the LSU secondary flashbacks to the Georgia game.

LSU’s leading tacklers are Harry Coleman (strong safety), Perry Riley (LB), Chris Hawkins (CB), and Brandon Taylor (safety). Danny McCray (another safety) and Kirston Pittman (defensive end) are tied for fifth in tackles with 29 apiece.

With four of the top six tacklers on the team being from the secondary, LSU may have their hands full keeping the Alabama running game in check while protecting against the play-action pass.

Like Georgia, Florida victimized LSU in two ways. Florida and Georgia both had a running back break a long run, and both teams had a long touchdown completion on third and long.

Also like Georgia, Florida moved the ball with consistency (though LSU did hold them in the second quarter), and Florida was able to run the ball consistently.

While it bears repeating that Alabama QB John Parker Wilson lacks the star power of Tebow or Stafford, there are sufficient weapons on offense to provide a similar test for the LSU defense.

The Alabama offensive line is much better than Georgia’s, and plays more physical than Florida’s OL does in their spread attack. Florida’s lack of physicality was evidenced in their inability to gain one yard on fourth down against the Ole Miss defensive front.

While it seems strange to suggest that Ole Miss may have a more formidable front eight than LSU, two linebackers and a defensive tackle rank among their top six tacklers.

Against the Rebel defense, Florida was held to 124 yards rushing, compared with the 265 they put up against LSU.

Head-to-Head: Alabama on Defense

LSU has an impressive string of 30 consecutive games where they have scored over 21 points. That string may end this week. I say “may,” because much hinges on the readiness of Alabama’s mammoth nose tackle Terrence Cody.

Cody has been the proverbial “immovable object” for much of the 2008 season, before going down with a strained knee ligament against Ole Miss.

While the rushing yards that Ole Miss gained after Cody went down were primarily on the corners, his absence freed up a blocker that would otherwise have been occupied by the double team needed to block the man-mountain.

Alabama did not miss a beat minus Cody in wins over UT and Arkansas State; however, their offensive lines are vastly inferior to the LSU front. With Cody in play, LSU will simply not have running lanes in the middle of the field.

Alabama’s pursuit on the corners is as good as there is in college football; if Cody is healthy, LSU will be forced to pass more than normal, which is the third area in which UGA and Florida victimized LSU.

In those combined losses, LSU QB Jarrett Lee had five interceptions, including three returned for touchdowns: one against Florida, and two against UGA. With 11 interceptions on the season, Alabama trails Florida by two, and has three more than UGA.

The Saban-coached secondary is opportunistic, having recorded three pick-sixes on the season and being just inches away from several others. If LSU is forced to throw, it could be a long day for the Bengal Tigers.

If Cody is unable to play, or is seriously hampered by the lingering effects of his injury, Chapman is an able backup, however he will not present the mismatch that Cody would have against an LSU center that weighs in at 278.

With guards that weigh 289 and 386, Cody will finally play in a game where he is not the heaviest player on the field (LSU goes 315 and 327 at the tackles). If LSU’s 386-pound All-SEC guard goes head to head with Cody, the geology department at LSU may once again detect seismic activity coming from Tiger Stadium.

If LSU schemes to double-team Cody with the center and the smaller guard, the void created by the double team will give Johnson the task of blocking much faster players, and Alabama could well set up shop in the backfield with blitzes coming from everywhere.

With Cody in the lineup, I don’t think LSU scores 21. If Cody is out, or ineffective, LSU will score in the twenties.

Trickle Down Category

This category is invalid against LSU. When Saban took over the foundering program in 2000, his first move was to close the borders of Louisiana and make LSU a recruiting force.

While Les Miles is not the evaluator of talent that Saban is, he has signed a ton of talent. LSU has top notch players at virtually every position.

Whether or not they are being “coached up,” is not a trickle-down issue. With the exception of the 2005 class that was signed following the coaching change from Saban to Miles, LSU has signed top 10 classes consistently, including a No. 2 class in 2004. 2005 was 19th, 2006 and 2008 were good enough to garner a No. 7 ranking, while 2007 ranked fifth.

Intangibles

This is not a night game - which is a good thing for Alabama. The LSU crowd will be boisterous if not violent, with the return of Nick Saban, and Gameday will certainly add to the atmosphere, however the number of drunk cajuns on the bayou at 2:30 PM is much lower than at 7:00 PM; still, the house will be rocking.

A loud crowd in itself will not be a big issue. The 2008 Alabama team is well traveled, with wins in the packed Georgia Dome, against a No. 3-ranked and undefeated blacked out UGA team, and most recently a win in front of a surprisingly energetic 100,000-plus at Tennessee.

In terms of coaching match ups, it is a mismatch. Nick Saban could take his’n and beat the hat, or the hat’s and beat his’n. Les Miles is not a terrible coach, but I agree with many who feel that he has feasted on the glut of talent at LSU.

From information gleaned from a conversation with a former member of Miles’ staff who also coached under Saban, I have no doubt (zero, nada, none) who the better coach is, in all facets of the game.

The Bottom Line

The more I have thought about this game, the more nervous I have become. While on paper Alabama should win decisively, I have a nagging feeling that this may be the week we finally fall.

The physicality of LSU’s team is undeniable, and they have tons of skill players. What they don’t have is a decent quarterback, or decent defensive coaching.

Still, this will be the first physical team Alabama has played that also has high level skill players…but I don’t think that matters. Alabama should still win this game.

Probably the source of my trepidation is due to the fact that LSU has owned us for five years straight, and has beaten us seven of the last eight and ranked No. 1, we have a bulls-eye on us. My gut feeling is bad…but I am not picking with my gut.

Saban wants this one. The players want this one. A win means the Western Division is ours.

…and it is.

Trickle Down Prediction

Bama 35
LSU 17/24 (Depending on Cody)