Penn State Football: Week Nine Review and Week 10 Preview

Week Nine Review

In their closest game of the season, Penn State earned their first win in Columbus as a member of the Big Ten conference on Saturday.  They couldn’t have picked a better time to finally win one at Ohio State, as this win solidified the Nittany Lions as an indisputable national title contender.

Penn State showed the ability to come from behind, overcome a key injury, force key turnovers, and win in a hostile environment all in one game as they defeated the Buckeyes by a score of 13-6 in front of a national audience.

I had originally predicted PSU to lose this game by a score of 27-12 in my article at the beginning of the summer.  I then modified this prediction last week to have Penn State losing by only a margin of 31-27.  Luckily, both of my predictions were way off.

In my analysis for my Week Nine preview last week, I mentioned that the game would probably come down to which team would get a key turnover at the end of the game.  Since Ohio State was the home team with lots of experience everywhere except the quarterback position, I figured that it would be Penn State turning the ball over in a key situation.

However, it was exactly the opposite.

With Penn State trailing by a score of 6-3, Ohio State had a third and short in their own territory close to midfield.  The Buckeyes turned to their athletic and highly touted freshman quarterback Terrelle Pryor to run to the edge for the first down.

However, he was met behind the line of scrimmage by Nittany Lion safety Mark Rubin, who simultaneously wrapped up Pryor and poked the ball loose.  The ball bounced around in the Buckeye backfield as the PSU defense saw their opportunity to take a victory in a game they had played so well in.

Penn State players blocked out Ohio State players and batted the ball until finally big-play linebacker Navarro Bowman successfully recovered the fumble.

Despite having to operate without starting quarterback Darryl Clark, the superb field position was more than enough for the Penn State offense to drive into the end zone for the go-ahead touchdown with only 6:25 left in the game.

After a field goal put PSU up by a touchdown, the Penn State defense again came up with a turnover to seal the victory.  Cornerback Lydell Sargeant intercepted a long pass from Pryor at the goal line, allowing PSU to run out the remaining time on the clock by taking a knee.

This victory was truly a total team effort.  Clark played well enough to get the win, throwing for 121 yards and rushing for 39 more before leaving the game in the fourth quarter when he took a hard hit to the head.

Running back Evan Royster had 77 yards rushing against a very stingy Buckeye defense.  Seven different PSU receivers had receptions.  Kicker Kevin Kelly had several key field goals. 

But the Penn State defense was the clear star of the show in this game.  Ohio State came in with an offense built around a strong running game with Chris “Beanie” Wells at running back and Pryor at quarterback.  Penn State held Wells to only 55 yards rushing on 22 carries and Pryor to only six yards rushing on nine carries.

While the offense was held to their lowest point total of the season, the defense stepped up big to keep the Nittany Lions in the game and ultimately provide the turnover that led to the game-winning score.

Another important player in this game that can’t go unmentioned is backup quarterback Pat Devlin.  Devlin entered the game after the Pryor fumble in the fourth quarter and led the offense to the only touchdown of the game for either team.

Devlin had no official pass attempts in the game, but his leadership and calming presence allowed the offense to score 10 points in the final 6:25 of play.  He also was the one who scored the winning touchdown with a quarterback sneak on third and goal from inside the one-yard line.

In addition to another short yardage conversion with a sneak, Devlin also played a key part in the biggest play of the touchdown drive.

Devlin threw a pass in the direction of Deon Butler that drew a pass interference penalty from the Ohio State defense.  The 15-yard penalty put the ball inside the 15-yard line, and the PSU rushing attack was able to put the ball in the end zone from there.

Sitting at 9-0 for the season and ranked No. 3 in the latest BCS standings, Penn State has a very good chance of making the National Championship game at the end of the season.  The Nittany Lions have only three games remaining, two of which are at home, and all of them are games Penn State will be heavily favored to win.

Week Ten Preview

Penn State does not play this weekend as they will use their bye week to prepare for their last regular season road game of the season at Iowa on Nov. 7.  For this reason, I will use this section to further break down Penn State’s chances of playing for the national title at the end of the season.

There are only two teams in the country that are ranked ahead of Penn State in the most recent BCS standings.  Those teams are the No. 1-ranked Texas Longhorns and No. 2-ranked Crimson Tide.

Texas and Alabama are both 8-0 with four regular season games remaining.  However, both teams also play in conferences with conference championship games, so if they both keep winning, then they will both have five games remaining, with the fifth guaranteed to come against another quality team.

As long as Penn State wins the rest of their games, they will make the National Championship if Texas and/or Alabama lose any of their remaining games.

There has been some talk about the possibility of a team with one loss jumping the Nittany Lions in the standings, but I don’t see it happening.

The two closest one-loss teams are USC and Oklahoma.  Barring several losses from Texas and Texas Tech, Oklahoma will not even be able to qualify for their conference championship game.  USC and Penn State share a common opponent (Oregon State), which PSU defeated easily and USC lost to.

The only team at this point that I think could have a legitimate claim to the national title of the one-loss teams if they win the rest of their games is Florida.  However, it is unlikely that a team who lost to a weak conference opponent at home could make the national title game over an undefeated Penn State squad.

That being said, there should then be 10 games that give Penn State the opportunity to move up to one of the top two spots in the BCS standings.

Texas has looked extremely impressive recently, defeating three straight teams ranked in the top 11 in the country in the past three weeks.  However, Texas won all of these games at home.  The Longhorns have yet to be tested away from their home field. 

The remaining schedule for Texas is at Texas Tech, vs. Baylor, at Kansas, vs. Texas A&M, and the Big 12 Championship game.  Thus out of their five remaining games, Texas has two tough road opponents, a rivalry game, and a conference championship game.  The chances of one loss in these games are high.

Alabama has climbed to the spotlight of college football this season with impressive blowout victories over Clemson and Georgia.  Clemson has since proven themselves to be vastly overrated, while Georgia remains as one of the top teams in the country. 

The remaining schedule for Alabama is vs. Arkansas State, at LSU, vs. Mississippi State, vs. Auburn, and the SEC Championship game.  Thus, Alabama still has a tough road game, a rivalry game, and a conference championship game remaining to go undefeated.  I also like their chances of losing at least one of these games. 

In the spirit of making predictions, I will say that both Texas and Alabama will lose before the season is over, and Penn State will go into the national championship game as the No.1-ranked team in the BCS standings.  They will then most likely play against a team that already has one loss.

As we learned last year, anything can happen to top-ranked teams at the end of the season.  The national championship picture could look vastly different a couple weeks from now.

But for now, I don’t think Penn State fans should be too worried about going undefeated and not making the BCS Championship game.