Arkansas State Vs. Alabama And a Look Back at Tennessee

The orange has been juiced. As more than one RollTideBama.com writer noted, the Tennessee game provided a great opportunity for the Crimson Tide to finally put together four quarters of quality football, and the team delivered.

The Trickle down prediction called for a 35-14 Bama victory, however as noted in later commentary, I had some question as to whether or not UT would be able to score 14 points against the Alabama defense. The latter comment proved prophetic, as the only points put up on the Alabama defense came by way of a gift field goal, and a late drive with some odd looking officiating.

As predicted, Chapman was able to do more than hold his own against the Volunteer offensive line, and the Vols did try to test the middle of the defensive line early. Chapman’s presence was noticeable, as the youngster repeatedly gained penetration—or occupied the offensive line to the point where middle blitzes came unblocked.

Ironically, Alabama may actually be better at pressuring up the middle when Chapman is in the game. While Cody is a beast in the middle, his presence creates such a pile that there is not much of a gap to shoot through; while Cody effectively eliminates middle running lanes, he also removes blitzing lanes.

The Trickle Down analysis noted that Tennessee had a defense that was highly ranked, however they had not been hit by a truly physical offense. Georgia, with Stafford, was able to pick them apart, and that opened up lanes allowing Moreno to gain 101 yards running the ball. 

The Bulldogs were able to gain 458 yards of offense against the Vols, and Alabama’s offense is similar to Georgia in some respects. Both teams play to their strengths—Georgia had more passing yards, Bama more rushing. Both teams are very efficient in the passing game, and play for their defense to put their offense in position to make things happen.

For Georgia, Moreno is very fast at the point of attack, and the success that Upchurch had against UT was due in large part to his acceleration. While Upchurch lacks the power of a Coffee or Ingram, he is quick to the hole with outstanding quickness on the cut. Tennessee was unable to close down on him before he was five yards down field.

Against some defenses, a power back is more effective, but against a Volunteer defense that was getting winded, Upchurch was the perfect answer. The 178 yards that Alabama gained against Tennessee was the most against their defense this season.

While the Vols defense was getting tired by the 3rd quarter, I believe that Upchurch would have been almost as effective in the early going as he was in the 3rd quarter. Credit the offensive coaches for finding what worked and sticking with it.

Tennessee on the other hand, possibly had the most unimaginative offense that I have seen all season. They play physical, yet their play calling is easier to chart than Alabama’s after Prothro’s injury in 2005. The sack by Javier Arenas on a first down blitz was no accident, the Alabama coaches knew what Tennessee was going to run based upon their previous calls in the same situation.

The blitz was so open that Javy even seemed a bit surprised. In days gone by, Tennessee would have gone for it on a couple of those 4th and short situations (we are giving up over 50 percent on 4th and short), and why they did not try an onside kick after their touchdown (especially given our history with onside kick coverage miscues), only Fulmer knows.

To be honest, Tennessee looked a lot like Alabama did under Shula. They ran a vanilla offense, and played solid defense, and took no chances at all. They appeared to play “to not lose,” rather than playing to win. While I don’t advocate “riverboat gambling,” why not kick it onside when you are down by 20 late in the 4th quarter and your defense is winded?

Honestly, I think Fulmer is through in Knoxville and he knows it. While whether or not it is the right thing to do may be debatable, he seems resolved to play it close and hope something good happens on his way to the end of the season. At that point I think he retires.

Arkansas State and Trickle Down Economics

ASU captured the attention of many people early in the season with a win over the Mike Sherman led Texas A&M Aggies. Time has shown that A&M is a team who would finish toward the bottom of the Sunbelt.

The second game of the season for Arkansas State also caused a few eyebrows to rise —a 83 to 10 smack down of Div 1-AA foe Texas Southern. Looking at Southern, the Arkansas State result no longer looks so impressive. Texas Southern is 4-4 on the season, with a win against NAIA Texas College, Division III Concordia College, and Division II Shaw College.

The lone win against 1AA competition for Texas Southern came against Alcorn State—who is struggling at 2-7 this season. The 83 points given up to the Red Wolves is not the only time this season Texas Southern has found itself on the losing end of a blowout. Texas State dropped 63 on them, and Southern University hit them for 45.

Since destroying Texas Southern, Arkansas State has been beaten by decidedly mediocre Southern Mississippi, Memphis, and Louisiana-Lafayette. Their wins have been against 2-6 Middle Tennessee State, and 2-6 Louisiana Monroe.

Some will see Louisiana-Monroe on their victim list and remember the 2007 debacle when they visited Alabama, but the 2008 ULM team makes the 2007 team look like the Chicago Bears under Ditka.

For the record, Louisiana-Monroe beat Arkansas State 30-13 in 2007. There are no valid ULM comparisons between Alabama and Arkansas State, and comparisons must be based upon this season’s results.

Do not let the 83 points on Texas Southern fool you, Arkansas State is not a pass-happy offense, the unit is balanced. The Red Wolves have 1474 yards passing on the season—210 yards per game. The rushing attack accounts for 1576 yards, or an average of 225 per game. 225ypg average looks good, but 441 came against Texas Southern.

They have NOT been held under 100 yards on the ground this season in any game, however they did gain exactly 100 in a losing effort against Louisiana Lafayette.

ASU has an experienced junior Quarterback who is very efficient, with 11 TD’s and only three interceptions in 2008.

When looking at the stats of the Red Wolves, it is worth looking at their whole body of work and who it was against. Here is how the teams they have faced rank defensively among the 119 teams in the FBS (total defense, run defense, pass defense):

TAMU - 103, 106, 84
*Texas Southern - 103, 104, 80 (FCS*)
Southern Miss - 104, 102, 100
MTSU - 70, 78, 63
Memphis - 77, 95, 44
La. Monroe - 113, 113, 89
Louisiana Lafayette - 108, 111, 74

It should be obvious from that stat alone that the ASU offensive numbers are seriously inflated against inferior opposition. Louisiana-Lafayette. for example, held Arkansas State to 100 rushing yards, yet gives up an average of 222 yards per game on the ground.

The 191 the Red Wolves gained against Southern Miss is only two yards above the average allowed by the Golden Eagles in 2008. The ASU team has not played anyone who ranks higher than Alabama in any defensive category.

This is a game that Bama will win easily. If the Tide comes out flat, it could resemble a Shula type game against a mismatched opponent, who stays close for a half before getting blown away.

Given that this is a Saban team, and Bama has show a propensity for scoring early and often when motivated, look for the game to be put away by halftime. While there may not be the motivation of a game with UGA, the disparity in talent alone will put ASU on their heels early.

ASU’s defense has 12 picks on the season, however it has been against decidedly inferior opposition. Alabama’s receiving corp will be the best ASU has faced BY FAR, and it is likely that Bama will not have to throw very much against a team that averages giving up 131 yards per game on the ground to the likes of these rushing offenses:

TAMU - 101
Texas Southern - 95 (FCS)
Southern Miss - 33
MTSU - 115
Memphis - 29
Louisiana Monroe - 59
Louisiana-Lafayette- No.1 - Option offense with cupcake schedule held to less than 100 by Illinois (who gave up 250 and 240 to Missouri and Penn State.)

One thing looking at the total body of statistical work does reveal, is the difference in consistent performance against low level teams vs. quality opponents. One of the problems with grading Arkansas State, is that they have yet to face a quality opponent. The teams that they have lost games to have not fared well.

The Louisiana-Lafayette team, for example, held State to 100 yards on the ground—but gave up 427 to a Southern Miss team held to just 37 by Auburn. The Red Wolves ran for 179 on Memphis, who also gave up 216 to Ole Miss, and 179 to a horrific Marshall team.

The combined records of the FBS teams that they have beaten is 7-23—a winning percentage of only 23 percent. Thrown in a FCS foe at 4-5, and it is still on a 33 percent winning percentage at 14-28.

The combined records of the teams that ASU has lost to is even more revealing. Their records total 10-14, including the three wins against Arkansas State. Without the wins over the Red Wolves, their records fall to 7-14—just 33 percent wins. The teams that have beaten Arkansas State were not exactly juggernauts.

For Bama to justify their No.2 national ranking, this is the kind of team they need to dominate like Penn State dominated Temple—a team that is comparable to Arkansas State, only having played a more difficult schedule.

“Trickle Down” Analysis

ASU is like most Sun Belt teams, with few true “big league” caliber players, other than a few partial qualifier types, and they sign more JUCO players than the big time 1-A teams. Looking at their recruiting classes reveals no players rated higher than two stars in 2008, and only one player ranked higher than 100 nationally, at his position. The 2008 class ranked 104th nationally.

The 2007 class ranked 82nd nationally, and did have a four star OG—who did not qualify and ended up at Ole Miss. Without him, the class would probably have been ranked over 100.

The 2006 recruiting class was tied for 116th nationally, containing just one two star player, with the rest being one star/unrated according to Scout.

Finally, the 2005 class contained two, two star players, the rest unrated—for a 115th ranking.

This is not a team loaded with talent. Their best player is a defensive lineman that was missed out on by the powers, but is certainly good enough to play for most teams. They shore up positions with JUCO players, but lack the depth of BCS schools.

In Week Eight, the “Trickle Down” prediction was 35-14, and while the numbers were slightly off, the margin of victory in the 29-9 Bama win was 20—compared to a trickle down prediction of 21. Fellow RTB staffer Terry Pellman predicted a similar outcome at 34-15, missing by minus 1.

Some might worry that Alabama is looking ahead to LSU, and while that is a danger, the prediction this week would be the same if Alabama spent the week breaking down film and preparing for the Bengal Tigers in practice.

While a Sunbelt team coming out of an off-week sandwiched between two conference rivals fits the bill of a trap game, I just cannot see it based on talent level alone.

Alabama is simply bigger, stronger, and faster—at almost every position on the field. The ASU corners and wideouts are undersized, as is the DL—going 280, 290, 275, and 250 across the front. Their LB’s range from 210 to 230, and two of them (Owens and Glover) are in the top four tacklers, with 51 and 38 stops.

The top player on their defense (and probably team) is 6′5″ 280 lb DE Alex Carrington, a preseason All-Sunbelt player who leads the team in tackles for loss and sacks, with 14 and 9.5. He could present a challenge if Alabama is forced into obvious passing situations. He will be lined up across from Drew Davis.

The ASU offensive line is a solid unit with a 330 lb Senior JUCO transfer RT, but four of their starters are new in 2008, and they are matched up against one of the top DL’s in the nation. How they handle their calls against a Nick Saban defense will determine how quickly things turn south for them.

ASU may have a bit of early offensive success if Alabama is not focused, and they will probably get a score in trash time to total 14, but Alabama DL will be the fastest unit they have faced—by far.

Bama’s defensive challenge will be for the DL to keep on doing what they do, and the LB’s to contain a QB who is capable of hurting you with his feet if he has to. We should be able to cover their receivers with relative ease, and our secondary could benefit from forced throws—even though the ASU QB only has three picks on the season, the Bama defense will be by far the most confusing he has faced this season.

The Bottom Line

Against ASU, look for a near repeat of the WKU game, with Bama’s offense scoring on long runs, while the defense (mostly) containing the ASU rushing attack. The Tide may have three backs go over 100 yards, and John Parker Wilson will pass for a "buck-fifty." Arkansas State’s defensive starters are a decent blue-collar group, but they lack depth, and that will come into play against a physical Alabama offense.

ASU hung with Texas in the first game of the 2007 season, but the Vols beat them 48-27. In 2008, the ASU team has given up 28 and 29 in losses to La.-La and Memphis, and that does not bode well for them coming into Tuscaloosa.

While the potent ASU offense hung 83 on Texas Southern, to borrow from Verne Lundquist, “there are few truths in an uncertain world, but here’s one of them: Alabama ain’t Texas Southern.”

While there are a lot of “weak sisters” type teams I had rather us be playing this week, I still think Bama wins convincingly on the strength of an offense that just keeps pounding at you.

Trickle Down Prediction:

Bama 45
ASU 14