Chicago Bears: 10 Things They Must Do to Stay Competitive in the NFC North
2010 was a good year for the Chicago Bears.
Free agent pick-up Julius Peppers looked like he was worth every penny, despite "only" posting eight sacks. He also tied a career-high with two INTs, tackled his man 43 times with 11 assists and proved to be a disruptive, dangerous force on both ends of the defensive line.
The very expensive Jay Cutler not only finished with his first winning record; he also had his second-best statistical year despite missing one game (not that one; the regular-season one).
Hall of Fame shoo-in Brian Urlacher bounced back from a 2009 injury to post his highest tackle total since 2005, adding four sacks and a pick for good measure.
Speaking of bouncing back, RB Matt Forte topped 1,000 yards again and set personal records for rushing average (4.5), longest run (68 yards), 20-plus yard runs (nine), first downs (42), receiving yards (547), receiving average (10.7)...well, you get the idea.
Then there was the 11-5 record, the NFC North crown and the ride all the way to the NFC Championship, where they lost a tough game against the eventual Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers.
That had to hurt.
And yet, given all this, the Bears aren't being talked about the way that the Packers and even the Detroit Lions are. Perhaps it's because of the fortunate breaks Chicago enjoyed, or perhaps because they are seen as this year's 2010 Minnesota Vikings, a team who had a magical season the year prior and then flopped.
But don't tell the Bears that. They take their game seriously, and woe be to the team that doesn't. They want not only to duplicate their success but also to improve upon it.
If that is going to happen, then here is a list of things they'll want to do.
1. Stop This
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In 2009, Jay Cutler was sacked a bone-crunching 35 times.
In 2010, the Bears made a significant offseason move to stop dangling their franchise passer from a meathook: They brought in offensive line guru and former head coach Mike Tice.
The result? Jay Cutler was sacked a bone-shattering 52 times, 12 more than the next most-sacked QB despite Cutler having missed a game.
This must stop.
With their first pick in the 2011 draft, Chicago landed the guy they tried and failed to move up for: Gabe Carimi, the former Wisconsin Badgers tackle many considered the most NFL-ready tackle in the draft. You can bet that the second Carimi gets up to speed, he will be protecting Cutler's blind side.
But he's only one man, and if the Bears want to stay on or near the top in the NFC North, their offensive line must perform like the later-2010 line and not the early-2010 one. And they'll need all the help they can get.
Leaving aside Clay Matthews III and the rest of the pass rushers in Dom Capers' complex defense, the Bears must also face a world-class-on-paper Detroit Lions front four that will only stay on paper for as long as Nick Fairley needs to get up to NFL speed. After that, they'll be a nightmare. They were already scary enough before the Auburn star was snatched up by Detroit. Now they have the potential to be a terror.
In 2011, the Bears also play a surprisingly stingy San Diego Chargers (No. 1 total defense in 2010), 2010's No. 4 defense (the New Orleans Saints) and #'s 11 and 12 (Oakland and Philadelphia, respectively).
And then there are the aging Vikings (No. 8 defense), who still boast the never-quit Jared Allen, even if the "Williams Wall" might come a-tumblin' down in 2011. If they stay, it's yet another reason why the Bears' line must improve by leap and bounds.
2. Give This Man the Ball
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Matt Forte was the 44th overall selection by the 2008 Chicago Bears, and he promptly rewarded them, rushing for 1,238 yards, hauling in 63 catches for 477 yards and scoring 12 touchdowns in his rookie season.
In 2009, he failed to reach the 1,000 yard mark, winding up with 929 on 258 carries (down nearly 60 carries from 2008) for an average of 3.6 per carry. Fair-weather fans began to mutter "bust" and look for solutions.
Really? A knee injury, a new, pass-happy offense and an offensive line that leaked like the Nixon Administration? I don't suppose any of these could be blamed for the drop in production, could they?
Forte made it a moot point in 2010, topping 1,000 yards on just 237 carries, averaging 4.5 yards per carry while tying receiver Johnny Knox for most receptions at 51.
He was an indispensable part of the 2010 campaign and a big reason why the Bears took the NFC North. If Chicago wants to stay at—or even near—the top, Forte must continue to be a featured player in their offense.
3. Keep This Man off the Field
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If the Bears want to stay competitive in the divisional race, they must at least split their head-to-head games with the Packers.
To do that, job No. 1 will be keeping Aaron Rodgers off the field.
Chicago has never been about high-octane, big-numbers offense, and despite Mike Martz, Jay Cutler and burners Knox and Devin Hester, they still aren't. Chicago has always been about tough defense, a steady offense and making their opponents pay for the mistakes that the Bears won't commit in return.
I have a feeling that this second year under Mike Martz, the offense will have a chance to get their team ahead early, which would go a long way toward the goal of keeping opposing offenses on the sidelines.
It is especially important in the case of Green Bay. Currently considered by many to be the most explosive offense in the league, they have the capacity to wipe out nearly any deficit. It will be important for Chicago to slow the train by sustaining long drives. Cue slide No. 2 and bring the Forte, while Jay Cutler will need the benefit of slide No. 1 to keep plays alive and make good, accurate throws.
Repeating as divisional champs will be difficult, if not impossible, for Chicago. Winning against Green Bay is key. If they want to have any chance, they'll need to put Aaron Rodgers where they like him best: on the sidelines.
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4. Sweep Both of These Guys
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With success comes greater challenges, and the 2011 Chicago Bears have the schedule to prove it.
Not counting the Detroit Lions or the Minnesota Vikings, the Bears' 2011 opponents have a combined record of 114-88 (counting Green Bay twice). Eliminate bottom-feeders Carolina and Denver, and the remaining 10 games are versus teams with a combined record of 108-62.
That's a lot of good teams, so it will be important for Chicago to sweep the Lions and Vikings for two reasons:
1. The ever-important record versus divisional opponents, and
2. Because the rest of the schedule is much tougher
The Vikings are without a starting-quality quarterback (some say for the second year now), so Chicago can feel some confidence about taking care of both games against Minnesota.
The Lions are not so easily dealt with.
Forget the non-catch heard 'round the world; the real problem was how close that game was, and how dangerous an opponent Detroit has become. With new star Nick Fairley joining an already stellar defensive line, the Bears will need lights-out play from up front to keep Jay Cutler's jersey clean. On the other side, if Matt Stafford is healthy, the Lions have a chance to beat anybody, so Chicago must also make plays on defense.
This is doable. The Bears have the talent and the confidence (they swept both teams last year). If they want that division crown, they must go 4-0 against the Lions and Vikings.
5. Get over It
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Jay Cutler was sacked 52 times in 2010. He was sacked 35 times in 2009.
He missed one regular season game.
Cutler has been hit a lot over the past two years, and he's played through almost all it.
He missed no games during his college career.
You can see where I'm going with this.
Personally, I'm not a Cutler fan. I think he has a Hall of Fame arm and a third stringer's grasp of the game. I think he's mediocre and overrated. I think the Bears made a mistake trading for him. I think they threw away a better quarterback than the one they had as an afterthought in a ridiculously expensive deal.
And even with all that, I still say he didn't leave that NFC Championship game for any other reason than that he couldn't physically play anymore. He couldn't perform at an NFL level for his team. The end.
Not that it matters. The point is, the Chicago Bears are stuck with Cutler, for better or worse. He's their starter. Despite some gutty play by backup Caleb Hanie, he isn't better than Cutler. Not yet, anyway.
This team will rise or fall with Jay Cutler as their starter, and anyone—fans, coaches or players—who doesn't like it is out of luck. Unless some kind of miracle happens, the Bears' best chance at the playoffs in 2011 is with him.
Time to put on the big boy pants and get behind the man, because he's all you have.
6. Put a Leash on Mike Martz
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Mike Martz has been called a lot of things, most of them useless for this article (they often end with -bag, -hole, -wad or -clown). But others are more germane, some good: genius, wizard, risk-taker... and some bad: madman, overrated, bad coach...
One thing about Martz is he's pretty consistent, whatever his detractors say. He offers his offense with little or no leeway. Take it or leave it.
In 2010, the Bears decided to take it, hoping Martz's pass-happy style would compliment their cannon-armed franchise passer. The results were mixed, as the Bears succeeded in spite of underwhelming numbers (28th in passing, 22nd in rushing), while Martz called seemingly nonsensical and dangerously risky plays.
This was especially true in the playoffs, wherein he called in a halfback pass versus the Seattle Seahawks, leading to an interception and an offensive surge by Seattle. Against the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship, he called in a wide receiver reverse on a 3rd and 3 while down by seven in the fourth quarter.
He also has a tendency to injure his quarterbacks, making them wait suicidally long amounts of time for plays to develop.
Look, I know you can't shackle the man and make him run a Norv Turner-style, run-run-pass-punt offense. That's not what you're paying him for. But somebody needs to step in the next time he calls a 71-yard field goal fake on 2nd and short and say, "No, Mike! Bad coach. Bad!" Then give him a whack on the nose with a rolled-up playcalling sheet.
Then call a sane play. You can't afford those kinds of mistakes if you want to send your hated rivals home come playoff time.
7. Know Your Receivers
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In 2010, Chicago spread the ball around:
Johnny Knox: 51 receptions, 960 yards, five TDs, 18.8 avg.
Matt Forte: 51 receptions, 547 yards, three TDs, 10.7 avg.
Earl Bennett: 46 receptions, 561 yards, three TDs, 12.2 avg.
Greg Olsen: 41 receptions, 404 yards, five TDs, 9.9 avg.
Devin Hester: 40 receptions, 475 yards, four TDs, 11.9 avg.
Now, pop quiz: Who are the number one and two receivers on the Chicago Bears' depth chart?
The Bears' answer is Johnny Knox and Devin Hester, respectively.
The correct answer is Earl Bennett and Johnny Knox.
Johnny Knox has speed, speed and more speed. His hands aren't too shabby. But his route running has given more than one Bears fan a reason to rip off his own mustache. In another year or two, Knox may finally marry that athleticism to tight skills. But until then, Jay Cutler can look forward to more INTs, throwing the ball to a spot where Knox should have been but wasn't.
Devin Hester is not a true receiver, and I doubt he will ever be. Don't get me wrong; he's a dynamic, game-changing playmaker who should get as many touches as Mike Martz can reasonably conjure up. But he's not a true receiver.
Earl Bennett is the real No. 1. You heard me. The fellow Vanderbilt product has a nice rapport with Jay Cutler (they played together there for one year), and he's Chicago's best all-around receiver. If his 40 time had been 4.4 instead of 4.52, he wouldn't have been there in the third round of 2008 for the Bears to steal. And let's face it: That's also why he isn't considered Chicago's No. 1.
Call it Al Davis syndrome. Call it a commitment to stretching the field. Whatever the label, they have the big-armed passer, and by golly, they're going to pitch it to one their burners.
Naturally, Knox and Hester are thought to have more ceiling due to their athleticism. But Bennett is the superior receiver. He reminds me a lot of his number-sake from Green Bay: Donald Driver. Bennett doesn't have elite size, speed or strength. He just catches the ball and does his funky.
His funky is nothing to sneeze at. If the Bears want progress on their offense, they need to decide who their receivers are, and they need to make the correct decision. If they do, expect a whole lot of third-and-Earl(s) to turn into first-and-ten(s).
8. Get Him or Someone Like Him
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Okay, I know: Chicago couldn't afford Nnamdi Asomugha.
But they need someone a lot like him, and they need him now.
Four games a year, the Bears must try to contain either the combination of Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew, Nate Burleson, Tony Scheffler and now Titus Young
- or -
Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Jermichael Finley, James Jones (maybe), Jordy Nelson, Andrew Quarless and now Randall Cobb.
You won't do it with the thankfully solid Charles Tillman and the yawn-inducing, Lollipop Guild-member Tim Jennings. Which is why in 2011, the Bears delved into the draft and found a future replace...ment...
Oh, wait. They didn't.
They did get fifth rounder Joshua Moore in 2010, and the buzz on him is positive. Moore's biggest knock—strength—has been an area of improvement for the possible future starter, but he's not there yet.
For now, Charles Tillman is Chicago's only true starting-caliber corner. He is also one of the best strip-artists in the game (this is 96 percent less vomit-inducing than it sounds). After Tillman, it gets a little thin.
You can't have "gets a little thin" in the secondary when you face the Packers twice a year, and you can't stop the Saints, Eagles or Chargers in 2011 with Charles Tillman and Nobody All That Good covering receivers.
Nnamdi Asomugha. Champ Bailey. Antonio Cromartie. Johnathon Joseph. Somebody better show up at corner if the Bears want to duplicate last year's success.
9. Keep the "Special" in Your Special Teams
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I mean that in the best possible way.
The 2010 Chicago Bears had the best special teams play I've seen since the 2009 Chicago Bears. I don't think I exaggerate when I say the Bears have world-class special teams. Oh, I'm sure that statistically, they didn't rank as the best unit ever. They might not have stacked up as the best even in 2010, by some standards.
I was judging by one criterion: How much did it help the rest of the team?
Very much, as it turned out. Chicago enjoyed dominance in the game of field position throughout the year, and credit goes to Robbie Gould, Brad Maynard (despite his off year, he's been one of the best punters in recent memory), Devin Hester, Danieal Manning, Johnny Knox and all those forget-me-now special teamers who race up and down the field, trying to give their team that extra one-or-two-or-thirty-yard edge.
Second most accurate kicker in NFL history Robbie Gould continues to be money in the bank. Brad Maynard had an off year in 2010 and may not return, but he has been a big part of Chicago's dominance in the game of field position. Danieal Manning is a kickoff return threat, averaging 24.7 yards in 2010, with Johnny Knox and Earl Bennett as capable backups who would probably start for other teams.
And of course, there is Devin Hester, The Greatest Return Specialist In NFL History—no joke. Hester is so feared that nearly every team punts the ball as far away from him as they can get it. Sometimes, they don't, or they fail, and Hester does his not-inconsiderable-best to make them pay every time.
The result? The Bears' offense spent much of 2010 playing on shortened fields, and the defense spent much of their year with a whole lot of green behind them. Opponents were forced to play extremely tight defense, denied the opportunity to stall drives in enemy territory. Opposing offenses were sometimes forced to spend their short possessions pounding out a little extra room for their punters to come in and get the ball the hell away from their end zone.
This dominance can only help if the Bears can keep it up in 2011.
10. Get Lucky Again
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Here's where I lose the Bears fans, if I haven't already (This probably includes my wife, for whom I am writing this. I'll be on the couch if you need me.).
Look, getting lucky doesn't diminish the accomplishments of the team. It augments their accomplishments. The 2010 Chicago Bears received more than their fair share of augmentation.
The non-catch heard 'round the world wasn't a lucky break for the Bears. It was the correct call based on a rule change. It was the rule change that was a lucky break for the Bears.
It only got better from there. From a string of opposing third-string quarterbacks to drawing the first playoff team with a losing record since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, Chicago benefited from a year-long string of breaks.
Some teams get snakebit, and some teams go on, charmed. Ask the 2009 Minnesota Vikings, whose ancient quarterback had a wholly improbable best season of his then-19-year-long career at the same time wide receiver Sidney Rice had his breakout year. Teams seemed to fall all over themselves losing to the 2009 Vikings.
Ask every team who took it the distance; there is an element of luck to the game.
In 2010, the Chicago Bears were a charmed team. Despite their meager offensive rankings, they scored just enough to win while their No. 9 ranked defense kept opponents at bay, aided by stellar special teams play, and yes, some lucky breaks.
Those lucky breaks can only help if they continue. Does Matt Stafford turn out to be made of glass? It's a break for Lions' opponents if he does. Does the new kickoff rule lull teams into complacency verses kickoff returns, allowing Danieal Manning to run wild from out of the end zone? Lucky if it does. Does an undrafted free agent rookie turn out to be a dynamite cornerback for a shaky Chicago secondary, à la Sam Shields of the Green Bay Packers in 2010?
See what I mean? If Chicago wants to stay atop the NFC North, they'll take all the help they can get, even if it annoys their fans when other people call it "luck".
Overview: Notes and Conclusions
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To be honest, I don't see it happening.
I see 8-8, maybe 9-7, just missing the wildcards. There are too many holes in the roster. That offensive line is...ready? Offensive. Ha HA! See what I did there? That's why I get paid nothing.
Anyway, apart from protection woes (where age is really beginning to be a factor in the middle of the line), the offense is missing a true No. 1 receiver (until Bennett or a heretofore raw Johnny Knox rises to the challenge) and consistency from the QB position.
Defensively, the Bears are getting older, but they still have a good two seasons left in them before (at least) Urlacher, Peppers, Briggs and Tillman start to lose physical skills. If they manage to land Cullen Jenkins to work the trenches alongside rookie Stephen Paea, it buys the linebacker corps an extra year (maybe two) and masks the weaknesses in the secondary a little more.
As slide No. 8 says, a starting-quality free agent corner would help immensely.
On the bright side, Chicago has it's plug-and-play, 10 worry-free-years left tackle in Gabe Carimi, some fresh blood on the other line and a rookie safety (Chris Conte) who seems to be a perfect fit for the Bears' rough-and-tumble style.
Jay Cutler is just 28 (assuming he doesn't bow out sooner than age would dictate), and stud Matt Forte is only in his third year. None of the top five receivers are even 30 yet, and the coaches have won a reprieve, allowing the same system to remain in place, all the better for younger players to learn.
This is a team that might repeat the success of 2010—or they flounder in the middle for a while before they restock on all the right positions. When they reload, it will be happy-days-are-here-again for the Chicago faithful.
Good luck.
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