UFC 131: Junior Dos Santos, Shane Carwin Head-to-Toe Breakdown

UFC 131 boasts a main event between two heavy-handed heavyweights in Shane Carwin and Junior dos Santos to see who will challenge reigning UFC heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez before the end of the year. 

Both guys have shown dominance in this division and now meet in a bout where each fighter is perfectly capable of achieving a first-round knockout.

The X-factor in this fight is likely going to be what is more effective: Carwin’s wrestling acumen, or dos Santos’ jiu-jitsu game? 

Neither aspect of the fighter’s styles has been on display much in the octagon but could easily be the key to victory.

Let’s take a look at how both guys match up against one another in this No. 1 contender bout.

Striking

Both Carwin and dos Santos are regarded as two of the best power punchers in professional MMA.

Carwin has won seven of his 12 fights by knockout, while Dos Santos has won eight of his 12 fights with a KO. 

In a combined 24 victories between the two, only the granite chin of Roy Nelson has managed to go the distance.

By the way, expect leg kicks to be nearly non-existent in this one, as these two fighters are both well known for using boxing for their primary attacks.

While this category is awfully close, dos Santos has the slight advantage due to the level of his competition. He has a couple of quality knockouts over Stefan Struve and Fabricio Werdum, while Carwin has only knocked out one top-10 opponent in Frank Mir.

Advantage: dos Santos

Wrestling

Yes folks, that really is Shane Carwin during his days at Western State College

Despite his affinity to throw bombs, many have acknowledged that Carwin’s best path to victory would be to use his wrestling skills to take down and then ground and pound “Cignano.”

Carwin was a NCAA Division II national wrestling champion in 1999 and a runner-up in 1996 and 1997 while part of the Western State College of Colorado squad. This photo shows Carwin working a double-armbar pin long before he embarked on his journey into MMA. 

While Carwin has not used his wrestling often during his MMA career because only one professional fight has gone past the first round, he was able to take down Brock Lesnar in their encounter in the octagon. 

Lesnar, a former two-time Division I national champion, certainly has a very sound wrestling game. 

Dos Santos is yet to really shoot for or defend takedowns regularly in his MMA career, so it is probably safe to say that his wrestling is not as refined as Carwin’s.

Advantage: Carwin

Jiu-Jitsu

A fun fact heading into this one is that both fighters are fairly accomplished in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. 

Carwin is a purple belt in BJJ, while dos Santos is actually a brown belt in the same martial arts discipline. 

Dos Santos has three submission victories to date, but only one was a legitimate finish with a guillotine choke. 

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic verbally gave up in his match with dos Santos due to a cut on his eyelid, while Joaquim Ferreira submitted to dos Santos via exhaustion during their first encounter.

Meanwhile, Carwin has five submission victories in his career, finding success with the rear naked and guillotine chokes. Carwin’s first professional victory was when Carlton Jones tapped out while the two were competing under the WEC organization.

While dos Santos is higher ranked of the two in BJJ, Carwin gets a modest advantage in this department for taking his fights to the mat a bit more frequently than dos Santos.

Advantage: Carwin

Cardio

It is rare to see either of these fighters go past the first round, but the difference is like night and day when they do.

“The Engineer” Shane Carwin looked absolutely gassed when he went into the second round with Brock Lesnar, while Cignano looked very strong in third rounds against Nelson and Cro Cop, respectively.

Carwin has substantially changed his diet for this fight, dropping about 25 pounds in hopes of getting his cardiovascular conditioning up. 

While Carwin may not be gasping for air if the fight makes it out of the first round, it only makes sense to give this advantage to dos Santos based on past experiences.

Advantage: dos Santos

Prediction

While the fight seems pretty even on paper, it just seems crazy to bet against the heart and punching power of JDS. 

Expect some fireworks from both fighters in the early going of this fight, but in the end, Cignano will end this one by the middle of the second round at the latest. 

Winner: Junior dos Santos by second-round TKO.