NBA Draft 2011: Enes Kanter and 7 Overhyped Prospects
With the Chicago pre-draft combine behind us and Draft Day fast approaching (June 23rd), NBA teams have begun conducting personal workouts with numerous prospects.
As executives get a closer look at the young men who could save or ruin their careers, each player will be meticulously poked, prodded, analyzed, and scrutinized.
Of course, it is incredibly difficult to judge how a player will react to the NBA game simply by running them through cones and performing shooting drills.
It is an inaccurate science that cannot possibly measure the intangibles that make certain players special. Inevitably, a few prospects kill it in the workouts, only to flop in the NBA (legend has it that Yi Jianlian once dropped 36 points on an unsuspecting chair).
I wrote earlier about several prospects flying under the radar. And as much as I hate to criticize young men who are trying to live out their dream, here are seven prospects that are overhyped heading into the month of June.
Enes Kanter
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Kanter is a 6'11", 260-pound Turkish power forward who made headlines when attempting to enroll at Kentucky this past season.
The NCAA eventually ruled that Kanter was ineligible to play because he had received benefits from his European team, namely an apartment and a car.
This means that Kanter, a guaranteed top-five pick, hasn't played organized five-on-five in over a year.
He blew scouts away at the 2010 Nike Hoops Summit, dropping a tournament record 34 points and generally looking like a man amongst boys. However, it's incredibly risky to draft a player based on workouts and one good game.
Also, the Hoops Summit isn't exactly "real" basketball. It's an All-Star tournament, teams thrown together without adequate time to practice, establish roles, or gameplan for opponents. Results of a tournament like this can be very misleading.
Kanter is undoubtedly a talented player and has perhaps the highest upside of any prospect. But we've only seen him play one game, meaning he is currently a very unproven commodity, and therefore, overhyped.
Kemba Walker
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Kemba Walker is a fierce competitor, a fearless player who often willed his Uconn team to victory. His speed and explosiveness allowed him to blow by defenders with ease and his ability to finish around the rim was impeccable for a man his size.
However, it is unclear how Walker's game will translate to the NBA. He is not a "true" point guard and his relatively small stature (he measured 6-foot-1 in shoes) makes it highly unlikely that he could play 2-guard next to a bigger point guard.
Also, his greatest physical attributes (speed/explosiveness) will not overwhelm defenders at the next level nearly to the extent that they did in college. He should find it much more difficult to finish at the basket with so many tall, strong, athletic defenders in the NBA.
I think Walker would fit well as an energy guy off the bench, ala J.J. Barea or Bobby Jackson. But most mock drafts have him going in the 5-8 range, which I believe is too high.
Alec Burks
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Burks is an athletic 6'6" shooting guard with excellent length. He made numerous “wow” plays at the combine, showing great explosiveness and finishing ability.
But Burks is an inconsistent shooter who currently lacks ideal range for a shooting guard. He often finds himself just standing around when he doesn’t have the ball, which can cripple an offense at the NBA level.
He doesn’t have a great grip on the nuances of being a shooting guard, namely running off screens, finding gaps in the defense, and making himself available to receive a pass in the half court set.
Listed at just over 190 pounds, Burks will definitely need to improve his strength over the next few years as well.
Burks may turn out to be a quality player in the league, but I would be wary of spending a lottery pick on him.
Jan Vesely
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Jan Vesely is a 6'11", 230 pound small forward from Serbia who has been playing important minutes for his Euroleague team.
Vesely is a highly explosive athlete and runs the floor well for a player his size, which leads to many highlight reel dunks in the open court. His exceptional length will allow him to be a decent defender at worst, as he will certainly challenge every shot.
However, like Burks, Vesely is incredibly skinny and will be susceptible to getting bullied by stronger players. He is not a great shooter and will likely struggle to score in the post due to his lack of strength.
Despite his height and length, Vesely only averaged 2.9 rebounds per game in Euroleague play. He also struggled mightily from the free throw line, shooting a Shaq-like 46%.
Vesely is widely projected as a top seven pick, but I doubt he will make any noticeable contributions during his first few years in the league.
Marcus Morris
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Marcus Morris has a much more refined offensive game as his twin brother Markieff, with a solid array of moves both in the post and off the dribble. He is a very capable shooter out to about 20 feet.
However, Morris could struggle to find a position in the NBA. He lacks the height and length to play power forward, and doesn’t have the speed, quickness, or shooting ability of a small forward.
Morris has been insisting in team interviews that he is a natural small forward, but many executives are doubtful.
Without the speed of a perimeter player, Morris will likely find himself playing the post. There, he’ll have a tough time getting his shot off against lengthy, athletic defenders. Length is the kryptonite of undersized power forwards, as was evidenced by Carlos Boozer throughout this year’s playoffs.
Morris will be able to contribute to an NBA team, but I don’t believe he is the top-10 pick that he is currently being touted as.
Jimmer Fredette
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What would an “overhyped” list be without the Jimmer?
Unlike many, I believe Fredette will have a long, successful career in the NBA. I think he’ll carve out a nice niche as a Jason Terry type of scorer off the bench.
He is an incredible outside shooter and has a savvy offensive mind, similar to that of Stephen Curry or Steve Nash. He has an understanding of angles and positioning that simply cannot be taught.
But fans who are touting him as a potential savior of their franchise (I’m looking at you, Utah) are delusional.
Look for Fredette to be routinely abused on defense, and struggle on offense against quick, smart defenders like Rajon Rondo and Chris Paul.
I think Jimmer will have plenty of seasons as a quality role player on a good team, with a few shining moments reminiscent of his BYU days.
But a superstar, or even an all-star?
Please.
Kyrie Irving
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Kyrie Irving—the likely No. 1 overall pick—is as much of a “sure thing” as any prospect in this draft. He has solid size (6'3") and good shooting ability for a point guard.
He is a natural leader, a pure point guard, and reportedly an excellent kid. All quality attributes, to say the least.
But these proclamations of Irving as the league’s next great point guard are ridiculous.
He is not Chris Paul. He doesn’t have the offensive savvy or mastery of angles like CP3, or even the aforementioned Stephen Curry.
He doesn’t have the athleticism of a Derrick Rose, John Wall, Russell Westbrook, or Rajon Rondo.
Don’t get me wrong, Irving will be a quality point guard. But I doubt he will be anything more than a glorified Mike Conley.
Irving will likely be in the running for Rookie of the Year, because there simply isn’t an abundance of candidates.
But good luck cracking an All-Star team in the next ten years with the talent currently on display at the NBA point guard position.
