UFC 131: Breakdown and Predictions for the Entire Card

It’s easy to completely write off UFC 131 now that Brock Lesnar has been forced out due to injury.

The main card isn’t as good as one would expect from the UFC, and it lacks a true co-main event, but overall, the card is still worth the $60 you know you’ll end up spending on it.

Making predictions for any sport is tough, but it’s even harder in MMA due to its unpredictable nature. I only bring this up because if you use these picks and lose some money, I can say, "I told you so.”

Michihiro Omigawa vs Darren Elkins

Michihiro Omigawa recently returned to the UFC for the first time since being cut after consecutive losses back in 2007, but he once again came up short in the Octagon, losing to Chad Mendes at UFC 126.

Darren Elkins is 1-1 in the UFC, but neither of his fights have given us much to see, since both have ended within the first minute.

Prediction: Omigawa looked good fighting in Japan over the last couple of years, but he seems to have a lot of trouble against UFC caliber competition. I’ll give the nod to Elkins by decision.

Joey Beltran vs Aaron Rosa

Joey Beltran might be the toughest guy in the heavyweight division. After taking a ton of punishment from both Matt Mitrione and Pat Barry in his last two fights, Beltran is likely fighting for his job.

Fresh off a submission win over TUF 10 contestant and Tim Sylvia slayer Abe Wagner, Aaron Rosa has made a name for himself on the regional scene, going 16-3, and is currently riding a four-fight win streak.

Prediction: While Rosa has fought a few tough guys, including Rafael Cavalcante, Beltran has that UFC experience that seems to make a difference in a lot of fights. The pick goes to Beltran by second round TKO.

Dustin Poirier vs Jason Young

One of the rising stars in the featherweight division, Dustin Poirier was supposed to be fighting fellow contender Rahni Yahya at this event, but Yahya suffered an injury, and Poirier drew UFC newcomer Jason Young.

Young is fighting out of London, England and was expected to make his major promotional debut sometime this year. He is 4-1 in his last five, with the only loss coming to submission specialist Paul Sass.

Prediction: Honestly, I’d never heard of Young before I started writing this, and Poirier is one of the top 10 featherweights in the world right now. Poirier takes it by first-round submission.

Nick Ring vs James Head

Nick Ring was last seen inside the Octagon at UFC 127, where he won a highly controversial decision against Riki Fukada. The undefeated fighter was also a contestant on TUF 11, where he defeated eventual winner Court McGee before having to leave the show due to injury.

James Head is making his UFC debut at 131 and is coming off the biggest win of his career, a decision victory over UFC veteran Gerald Harris.

Prediction: Ring looked tentative against Fukada and never looked all that impressive when he was on TUF. Head just defeated a very game Gerald Harris, who many thought should never have been let go by the UFC in the first place. I’ll take Head by third-round TKO.

Krzysztof Soszynski vs Igor Pokrajac

A veteran of TUF Season 8, Krzysztof Soszynski has gone an impressive 5-2 in the UFC, with wins over Stephan Bonner and Goran Rejlic on his resume, along with a submission of the night victory over Brian Stann. Soszynski is known for his nasty kimura and for having a serious hatred for vowels.

Igor Pokrajac, a name that is only slightly easier to spell, has gone just 2-3 inside the Octagon, but has won when his back was against the wall and kept a job. After a very nice win over Todd Brown at UFC Live 3 in March, Pokrajac is still likely fighting for his spot on the UFC roster.

Prediction: While Pokrajac has never looked overly impressive, he has put up a decent fight in all of his UFC bouts, so I can’t see him getting finished. The pick is Soszynski by unanimous decision.

Jessie Bongfeldt vs Chris Weidman

The man with the best nickname in all of MMA, Jessie "Water" Bongfeldt had a long and successful career in Canada, with wins over TJ Grant and Sean Pierson before entering the UFC last December at UFC 124. Bongfeldt fought to a draw with Rafael Natal in his UFC debut.

Chris Weidman entered his UFC debut against Alessio Sakara with a ton of hype, and he used his fantastic wrestling to claim a decision victory over the UFC veteran at UFC Live 3.

Prediction: Weidman looked very good against Sakara, showing some impressive ground and pound to go with his wrestling, and I fully expect to see more of the same from him en route to a decision victory.

Yves Edwards vs Sam Stout

Sam Stout has gone to decision in all but one of his 10 UFC bouts, but he has always been entertaining, earning five fight of the night bonuses in his UFC career. With wins over Spencer Fisher and Joe Lauzon on his resume, Stout is a threat to anyone on the feet, and his ground game is improving with every fight.

With over 55 fights in his MMA career, Yves Edwards has been equally impressive during his many UFC stints and recently won himself both a fight of the night and a submission of the night bonus when he fought Cody McKenzie at UFC Fight for the Troops 2.

Prediction: Stout is nearly impossible to finish, and Edwards is definitely capable of hanging with the Canadian on the feet, so the pick is Edwards in a likely fight of the night candidate. 

Donald Cerrone vs Vagner Rocha

One of the WEC lightweights who was expected to make some noise after the UFC merger, Donald Cerrone had memorable battles with Jamie Varner and Ben Henderson before entering the UFC and earned a fight of the night check in his UFC debut earlier this year at UFC 126.

A relative unknown, Vagner Rocha has fought for both Strikeforce and Bellator and is known as a top BJJ black belt.

Prediction: Cerrone was originally set to fight Mac Danzig at this event, but Rocha agreed to come in on short notice to replace the injured Danzig. However tough Rocha is on the ground, Cerrone has shown he is no slouch when it hits the mat, and this should be an easy win for "Cowboy." Cerrone takes it by TKO in Round 1.

Demain Maia vs Mark Munoz

A four-time winner of the Submission of the Night award, Demian Maia is a wizard when the fight hits the mat. With ever improving striking and stellar takedowns for a BJJ guy, Maia is a tough opponent for anyone at 185.

With a 5-1 record at middleweight, and the lone loss coming from current No. 1 contender Yushin Okami, Mark Munoz is quickly working his way to a title shot at 185. A former collegiate wrestler, Munoz has recently used his wrestling to keep fights standing and working his improved stand up.

Prediction: Maia is great when the fight hits the mat, but Munoz has the wrestling to force Maia to stand and trade. While both fighters have improved their striking, Munoz has some serious power, and he’ll stun Maia early and often before earning a second-round knockout. 

Jon Olav Einemo vs Dave Herman

Jon Olav Einemo is making his UFC debut in this fight, which is his first in almost five years. A very accomplished BJJ black belt, Einemo has a 6-1 MMA record, with his only loss coming to Fabricio Werdum back at Pride 31.

Also making his UFC debut, Dave Herman has been a finishing machine his entire career, winning 19 of his 20 fights by knockout or submission. Sporting a 20-2 record, with one loss by DQ, the 26-year-old Herman is an exciting prospect in the heavyweight division.

Prediction: MMA fans wonder if ring rust will come into play when a fighter has been out for just one year, and since Einemo has been out for nearly half a decade, the advantage goes to "Pee-Wee." Herman wins by first-round TKO.

Kenny Florian vs Diego Nunes

Always in the top five, but never No. 1, Kenny Florian has dropped to 145 lbs to try and win the UFC belt that has eluded him for six years. Even after two failed attempts to win the UFC lightweight title, Florian is in contention by default at featherweight, and a win could get him his third shot at UFC gold.

Diego Nunes has gone 5-1 in his last six fights, all of which came in either the WEC or UFC, and he recently scored the biggest win of his career when he defeated former champion Mike Brown at UFC 125. A win over Florian may be enough to convince the UFC brass that they have a serious contender at 145.

Prediction: Florian has only one weakness in his game, and I don’t see Nunes out-wrestling "Kenflo." Expect the usual technical beat down followed by a rear naked choke in the second to earn Florian an eventual shot at Jose Aldo.

Junior Dos Santos vs Shane Carwin

Junior Dos Santos may have the best boxing in the UFC’s heavyweight division, and after destroying six straight opponents inside the Octagon, he finally gets a shot at the big time. With Fabricio Werdum, Stefan Struve, Mirko Cro Cop and Roy Nelson on his UFC resume, the Brazilian striker is a win away from getting a shot at Cain Velasquez.

Shane Carwin was a punch or two away from winning the UFC heavyweight title, but Brock Lesnar was able to hold on, and Carwin was submitted in the second round of their UFC 116 title bout. After undergoing neck surgery following the Lesnar bout, Carwin is looking to get right back into the No. 1 contenders spot at UFC 131.

Prediction: I don’t expect anything other than a first-round knockout from this fight, and I think Dos Santos lands first and sends Carwin into unconsciousness. Junior Dos Santos wins by early first-round KO.