NFL Stock Watch 2011: Which Direction is Every NFL Team Headed?
Although we are in the midst of a disappointing lockout and are impatiently waiting for transactions to resume, we still have to look ahead to the 2011 season.
Now that the NFL draft is in the books and trade and free-agency rumors are running wild, it’s only right that we take a look to see which direction every NFL team is headed.
Everyone has their own opinion of their favorite team—some clearly more jaded and delusional than others. As we take a step back to look at the overall squad and organization, we will see if some perennial Super Bowl contenders are on the decline and if some new faces are ready to mix it up with the beasts of the league.
Is your team trending up, down or on the same path their 2010 season left them?
Arizona Cardinals: Slightly Trending Up
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The Cardinals are coming off a disappointing season, but that was expected following the retirement of Kurt Warner and the trade of superstar wide receiver Anquan Boldin.
It is highly doubtful that Tim Hightower will return after the Cards selected the dynamic Ryan Williams out of Virginia Tech in the second round.
He will pair with Chris "Beanie" Wells to form a fantastic, young running back tandem that will help control the pace of the game.
Arizona is aggressively pursuing a veteran quarterback, which depending on who they bring in, could very well allow them to make a playoff push.
The defense will be much improved now that they added a pass-rusher in Sam Acho in the fourth round. More importantly, they landed my No. 1 overall prospect in the entire 2011 class in cornerback Patrick Peterson, who will team with Adrian Wilson, Kerry Rhodes and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie to form one of the top secondary units in the league.
We’ve seen stout defenses with poor quarterbacks head to the playoffs, and Ken Whisenhunt’s Cardinals will be much improved in 2011.
Atlanta Falcons: Super Bowl Trending
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Although I have my reservations about this bend-but-don’t-break defense, this offense is officially loaded following the NFL draft.
The Falcons’ offense is finally complete after they landed WR Julio Jones and RB Jacquizz Rodgers. These were two of the most dynamic prospects at their respective positions and will make a monstrous impact in 2011.
Jones is a strong receiver with deep threat capabilities, but can also shred defenses in man-to-man coverage, which he will see with Roddy White demanding double teams.
Jacquizz is the perfect lightning to Michael Turner’s thunder. These two will form one of the top rushing attacks in the entire league, which will help open the aerial attack for Matt Ryan.
Ryan now has a plethora of options, which also includes Hall of Fame TE Tony Gonzalez.
As John Abraham leads the defense, I’m not worried about the lack of elite talent on that side of the ball. This is a Super Bowl caliber offense, and the sky is the limit.
Baltimore Ravens: Super Bowl Trending
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The Ravens still boast an elite defense with Terrell Suggs and Ray Lewis. This is one of the nastiest duos in the NFL. They are greatly assisted up front by one of the premier defensive tackles in the game, Haloti Ngata.
Although frequently injured, we can only expect Hall of Fame caliber safety Ed Reed to come in healthy and stay one of the top ball hawks in league history.
This defense will be aided by the selection of Colorado CB Jimmy Smith, who will be used in the Darrelle Revis/Nnamdi Asomugha-left-on-an-island role. The problem for the receivers in this league? Smith has all of the talent to succeed in the role.
Joe Flacco is all set to emerge as one of the best QBs in the game. He has some young reinforcements coming to the team in local product Torrey Smith and Tandon Doss. They’ll help open the offense for Anquan Boldin and superstar runner Ray Rice.
The Ravens are one of the most complete teams in the league, and it is clearly Super Bowl or bust in 2011.
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Buffalo Bills: Steady Trending
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Buffalo made solid draft selections overall, highlighted by DT Marcell Dareus, CB Aaron Williams and LB Kelvin Sheppard. These rookies should make an impact for the Bills in 2011, but this is still a defense that needs more talent overall. If Paul Posluszny, one of the better locker room leaders and inside linebackers, somehow leaves the team, this defense is in trouble.
I like what the Bills did last year, they were highly competitive in their contests despite not winning many games. I expect more of the same as the offense begins to breakout further with Steve Johnson, C.J. Spiller and Ryan Fitzpatrick.
The Bills made the smart choice to pass on one of the quarterbacks in the draft, because they’ll be in the same position in 2012 starring a better QB class highlighted by Stanford’s Andrew Luck, Oklahoma’s Landry Jones and USC’s Matt Barkley.
Head coach Chan Gailey and general manager Buddy Nix have this team steadily moving in the right direction, it just won’t be fully reflected yet in 2011.
Don’t worry Buffalo fans, as long as you land one of those three QBs, you’re in great hands for the future. This Dark Age is coming to an end.
Carolina Panthers: Trending Down
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Cam Newton was a great pick No. 1 overall. He will induce hope into Carolina fans and his teammates, as well as sell jerseys and tickets for the organization. Everyone wants to watch him play as he is the premier superstar of this year’s rookie class.
Still, the Panthers are going to find themselves battling for the No. 1 selection once again in 2011.
The Panthers could be trading veteran Steve Smith and might even lose running back DeAngelo Williams. These are two superb veterans who will be greatly missed on the field.
Linebacker Thomas Davis could walk too, hindering the linebacker unit. The secondary is not as solid as it once was and will be lit up by the Falcons, Saints and Buccaneers in the NFC South.
Ron Rivera still has a lot to do with this team and did not have a great draft debut as a head coach. He should have better luck next year…no pun intended.
Chicago Bears: Slightly Trending Down
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It is difficult not to like a team that boasts Julius Peppers, Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, three of the premier veterans at their respective positions.
Still, I have my reservations about this defensive unit, which needs more help in the secondary, especially at the cornerback position. With Green Bay and Detroit boasting high-octane offenses heading into 2011, they need to add another corner to counter.
The running game should be improved with first round mauler Gabe Carimi joining the team. He was my No. 1 run-blocking offensive tackle in the draft class.
Unfortunately, Mike Martz is never one to dedicate himself to running the ball and I predict defenses will figure him out quickly in 2011 and blow up his offensive scheme. This team needs more talent around Jay Cutler at the receiver position, and he will probably still be a sitting duck in Martz’ offense.
Although this is a team with playoff aspirations, they will not make it back to the NFC Championship and could be bounced from the playoffs altogether as other NFC teams improve.
Cincinnati Bengals: Slightly Trending Down
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The Bengals had one of my favorite drafts of any team, but this has still been a tumultuous offseason.
It remains to be seen what will happen with superstars Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco. These were two veteran leaders and faces of the franchise. Now, Andy Dalton and A.J. Green are the faces of the franchise, but they won’t be able to bring Cincinnati to the playoffs just yet.
I predict the Bengals will be a bit more competitive in 2011, but they will still see a top-10 selection once again. Things are looking up as the team actually has a very good defense, though it disappointed greatly in 2010.
The rest of the AFC North and AFC in general is just too tough heading in 2011 for this team to make the impact fans desire. The future is extremely bright, and the Bengals organization needs to embrace that and trade away Palmer and Ochocinco for 2012 draft picks.
Cleveland Browns: Steady Trending, Slightly Down
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The Browns surprised many last year as they were an extremely competitive team throughout 2010. They let a few losses get away from them and shut it down in December, but they showed great promise.
Unfortunately, I don’t see the team making the leap into the playoffs just yet as the organization transitions to new head coach Pat Shurmur and the 4-3 defense.
Shurmur did a fantastic job with Sam Bradford last year and will help Colt McCoy a ton in his sophomore season.
Peyton Hillis is now on everyone’s radar, especially after donning the cover of Madden. He is one of the toughest and most powerful backs in the league, but everyone is gunning to take him down, and I can see him stumbling to duplicate last year’s success.
This team has young talent across the board and should still be competitive, but I see a similar season as last year as they fail to generate many wins.
Dallas Cowboys: Trending Up
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The Cowboys have to be trending up after bolstering their offensive line with offensive tackles Tyron Smith and David Arkin and landing the explosive DeMarco Murray to the backfield.
More importantly, the offense will get back QB Tony Romo and WR Dez Bryant from injury, which means Jerry’s World is about to get rockin’ in 2011.
The ‘Boys showed more heart under Jason Garrett to close out the year, and I fully expect the defense to be improved with linebacker Bruce Carter joining as a young playmaker and leader.
I still have my concerns over the secondary, but it will be improved with Carter and DeMarcus Ware on the second line of defense.
The Cowboys will be fighting for a playoff position all season.
Denver Broncos: Trending Up
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The Broncos had one of the best drafts of any team in the NFL as they brought in impact player after impact player. OLB Von Miller, S Rahim Moore, OG Orlando Franklin, LB Nate Irving, S Quinton Carter, TE Julius Thomas, TE Virgil Green and DE Jeremy Beal will all help this team improve in their first year.
The Broncos will be one of the surprise teams in the league as they are competitive throughout the season.
The major reason this team will be better is the return of elite sack artist Elvis Dumervil. Watch for a world of difference in the rush and pass defense with Elvis on the field.
My main concern with the team is who will play quarterback, Tim Tebow, Kyle Orton or Brady Quinn.
As long as it’s not Quinn, the Broncos are in good hands. I’d hand the reins of the Broncos over to Tebow if it were up to me.
Detroit Lions: Trending Up
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They still have holes on defense, but they have a fantastic core with DT Ndamukong Suh, S Louis Delmas and first round DT Nick Fairley. I believe Suh and Fairley will create the most menacing defensive tackle duo the game has ever seen, which will in turn immensely improve this defense.
The offense is officially complete as long as Matthew Stafford is healthy as the Lions have Calvin Johnson and Titus Young at WR, Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler at TE and Jahvid Best and Mikel Leshoure at RB. This is a potentially Super Bowl caliber offense, though every Detroit fan will settle for a winning season.
I believe this team has the talent in 2011 to compete for the NFC North crown.
Green Bay Packers: Super Bowl Trending
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Of course the defending Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers are Super Bowl trending.
Of every team we said had a great shot to repeat over the past decade, this is the team that can truly do it.
Many forget that the Packers actually had a tumultuous 2010 season filled with drama and injuries. They got hot at the right team to finish the season and rode that wave to a Championship.
In 2011, they will be healthy and have added fantastic pieces through the draft.
They have a three-headed monster at running back with Ryan Grant, James Starks and third-round rookie Alex Green.
The receiving core is one of the best in the league, and they added all-purpose player Randall Cobb in the second round.
They bolstered the offensive line with Derek Sherrod in the first round to protect Aaron Rodgers, who was beat up last year.
Green Bay has the best secondary in the league talent-wise and it’s aided by Clay Matthews’ Defensive Player of the Year caliber performances every week.
Super Bowl or bust.
Houston Texans: Trending Up
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For the first time in franchise history, the Houston Texans truly have a great shot at winning the AFC South division title—and I believe they will do it.
They already have a Super Bowl caliber offense with Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Arian Foster, Owen Daniels and Jacoby Jones—nobody will ever deny that.
Yet following one of my favorite drafts in the NFL and the hiring of defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, the Texans will finally have a defense to match the intensity. They suffered multiple injuries across the defensive unit and did not have the talent overall to truly complete. Now they do.
Defensive ends J.J. Watt and Brooks Reed will allow Phillips to form arguably the best linebacker unit in the league consisting of Mario Williams, Brian Cushing and DeMeco Ryans.
The team also has a secondary it can lean on with rookies Brandon Harris and Shiloh Keo.
The time is now for Houston, and they will capitalize as their rookies improve the defense.
First playoff appearance in franchise history comes this season.
Indianapolis Colts: Slightly Trending Down
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Peyton Manning underwent his second neck surgery in as many years, though it is not the true reason they are slightly trending down. Every team reaches that wall, and this year it will come for the Colts, who barely won the division title last year.
The running game will not improve in 2011 and the defense is aging and does not have the spectacular talent around defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis anymore. The linebacker unit is rather weak and the secondary is declining, mainly at the cornerback position.
Indianapolis had a fantastic run over the past decade, but it is now coming to a close. The Texans will win the AFC South and the Colts will have to fight for a Wild Card berth.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Trending Down
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Jacksonville surprised me last year as they almost won the AFC South crown. That won’t happen again.
I believe the Jaguars will tumble fast and have one of the top 10 selections in the draft, maybe even top five.
The team did not help itself in the NFL draft for 2011, instead focusing on the path ahead in 2012 and beyond.
Mike Sims-Walker will not return, which means David Garrard will have to rely on sophomore Mike Thomas and rookie Cecil Shorts. Not the worst but not the best situation. Marcedes Lewis enjoyed a breakout season last year, but he’ll be double covered as he lacks receiving help.
Maurice Jones-Drew is having trouble staying healthy for the full season and he will once again suffer as the team has to continuously pound the rock as perhaps their only option.
The defense, while usually stout, will struggle as it simply lacks the necessary talent around Rashean Mathis. The team needed to bolster every position on defense, and it just does not have the talent to keep up just yet.
Kansas City Chiefs: Steady Trending
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I raved about the Chiefs throughout 2010 as Todd Haley was a Coach of the Year candidate. This is one of the best young teams in the league, and although they drafted some character and work ethic concerns during the draft—they drafted talented players.
This offense is now complete with Jonathan Baldwin to stretch the field to take pressure off Dwayne Bowe and open up space for Dexter McCluster.
Matt Cassel has a plethora of options to throw to, but more importantly has one of the top rushing attacks in the game with Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones.
The Chiefs have one of the best secondary units in the league with Eric Berry, Javier Arenas, Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr.
The rest of the defense is improving, but with this ultra-talented secondary and offense, the Chiefs will repeat as AFC West division Champs.
Miami Dolphins: Slightly Trending Down
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I really like what the Dolphins did with their draft, as they took my advice and drafted Mike Pouncey to secure the offensive line and Daniel Thomas to be the new workhorse running back.
I’ve always liked Chad Henne and I’m glad to see he’s being given one more opportunity to start, as of now.
Although I like the direction of the offense, I’m not a fan of this defensive front seven. This team needs more help on the defensive line and needs better linebacker player around Cameron Wake.
I do like their cornerbacks, highlighted by Vontae Davis, but they need better safety play.
The Dolphins are headed in the right direction and it was good to see Tony Sparano receive an extension. Still, I can see them inching toward a top-10 pick.
Minnesota Vikings: Steady Trending
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The Vikings’ future appears bright with Christian Ponder, who I predicted the Vikings would select in a couple of mock drafts. He is the intelligent, accurate and game-managing QB the team needs to run the show. Adrian Peterson is still one of the best running backs in the league, which will always make the Vikings a threat.
The offensive line needs some help, and it remains to be seen what will happen with Sidney Rice, who could bolt depending on the collective bargaining agreement.
The defense could use Ray Edwards back, who has stated that he refuses to play for Minnesota.
Unfortunately for the Vikings, the NFC North is just too tough right now. Green Bay is a Super Bowl contender, Chicago is a bit further up than Minnesota and Detroit is my breakout team for 2011.
The Vikings will be competitive in 2010, but they will not make the playoffs.
New England Patriots: Super Bowl Trending
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As long as the Patriots have Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, they will forever be Super Bowl trending.
The team has not won a playoff game since they went to the Super Bowl in 2007-2008 and have been bounced from the postseason each of the past two years—at home nonetheless.
Still, they are my Super Bowl favorites after filling holes throughout the draft. They found a short-yardage back, Kevin Faulk’s replacement and offensive line help. The only thing missing was a pass-rusher, but that’s probably because Belichick knows something we don’t.
The offense is set with Brady leading the charge. The defense is one of the best young units in the league and will continue to improve with more experience and chemistry.
Just the usual out of New England.
New Orleans Saints: Super Bowl Trending
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The Saints were embarrassed by the Seahawks last year and landed a late first-round gem in defensive end Cameron Jordan. They made a great move by back into the first round to acquire the perfect complement to Drew Brees in Heisman winner Mark Ingram.
The Saints are loaded on offense and have a mastermind at head coach in Sean Payton. This is a Super Bowl caliber team highlighted by a Super Bowl caliber offense. The defense is improving and will hold its own.
As we’ve seen on ESPN, Brees and Jonathan Vilma are holding quality workouts to keep the team in shape. They will rival the Falcons and Eagles for NFC dominance in 2011.
New York Giants: Slightly Trending Up
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The Giants have not been the same since Plaxico Burress shot himself in the leg.
Things are starting to turn around though as Jerry Reese immensely improved this defense with the selections of CB Prince Amukamara, DT Marvin Austin, LB Greg Jones and S Tyler Sash. All four of these defensive studs will make a major impact in 2011.
Eli Manning is one of the most underrated and underappreciated players in the entire league. As long as the team keeps Steve Smith, this offense will be able to assist the great defense.
This team is on the verge of making it back to the playoffs and making a run with their defense and solid offense.
New York Jets: Super Bowl Trending
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The Jets have holes to fill as many of last year’s superstars are now free agents. Still, they are expected to re-sign most and are in contention for the best free agents on the market. The new "cool" thing to do is play for the New York Jets and Rex Ryan, as the charismatic head coach takes a ton of pressure of his players and creates a fun atmosphere to be part.
Mark Sanchez has taken this team to two consecutive AFC Championship appearances and is still improving. The offensive line and rushing attack are two of the best units the league has to offer.
This team relies on its defense as Rex Ryan is one of the best schemers in the league. They will once again have an elite defense, especially with rookies Muhammad Wilkerson and Kenrick Ellis bolstering the squad.
Expect the Jets to once again be a circus, but one that will go deep in the playoffs.
Oakland Raiders: Slightly Trending Down
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Oakland is in an interesting position this offseason as elite cornerback and face of the franchise Nnamdi Asomugha is now a free agent. We have no idea where he is headed, but I fully project Asomugha to take his talents to a Super Bowl contender.
For that reason alone, the Raiders are trending down instead of up. I like where the offense is headed as they are willing to play smart, winning, run-first football behind a good offensive line and a potential superstar in Darren McFadden.
I was never a fan of Jason Campbell, though and don’t think he has what it takes to make this team truly competitive. They are on the right track though and should land a solid QB in next year’s draft. It is important to note that sophomore Jacoby Ford has all of the tools to be a No. 1 receiver for this team after a fantastic rookie season.
If Asomugha stuck around, this team would be trending up, but I expect him to jet.
Philadelphia Eagles: Super Bowl Trending
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Of course the Eagles are Super Bowl trending as they have the best offense in the league. Speed kills and the Eagles are loaded from top to bottom on offense with Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Brent Celek.
There are rumors Philadelphia could bring in Plaxico Burress, which I believe would be a great move as he would be one of the top red-zone targets in the league.
I still have my concerns about this defense, but Asante Samuel is still one of the top cornerbacks in the game. I thought Casey Matthews was a fantastic selection, and he will prove his worth immediately as a rookie.
Like some of the other teams on this list, it is truly Super Bowl or bust for the Eagles.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Super Bowl Trending
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The Steelers suffered a tough loss against the Green Bay Packers in the Super Bowl, but I predicted the outcome.
Still, headlining the Super Bowl is an incredible accomplishment that cannot be overlooked.
This team is stacked and only getting better. The linebacker unit with James Farrior, James Harrison, LaMarr Woodley and Lawrence Timmons is tops in the league and solidifies the defense. Troy Polamalu may be the most important defensive player in the entire league as he makes this the deadliest unit in the NFL.
Ben Roethlisberger is one of the most clutch and winning quarterbacks in the league. This is a perennial Super Bowl contender as long as the core pieces are together.
San Diego Chargers: Steady Trending
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The Chargers have a solid team overall, but I’m not ready to put them back in the postseason. This team needs to get rid of Norv Turner as head coach, as he is not the right fit to get the most out of this team.
Antonio Gates returning from injury and Vincent Jackson starting the year will put the spark back into the Chargers’ offense. Philip Rivers is one of the elite quarterbacks this league has to offer. They need more out of the running game after Ryan Mathews disappointed in his rookie season due to fumblitis and injury—but he showed in the finale that he has what it takes as he scored three touchdowns in Week 17.
The defense has a ton of talent, especially with the addition of first-round defensive tackle Corey Liuget.
This is a team on the rise, of course, but I’m not ready to anoint them the AFC West division winners over the Kansas City Chiefs just yet.
San Francisco 49ers: Steady Trending
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Unfortunately for San Francisco fans, Alex Smith is expected to return.
That alone means the 49ers will not be looking up in 2011, despite having talent on offense with Frank Gore, rookie RB Kendall Hunter, Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree. QB Colin Kaepernick was a fantastic selection, but he won’t be ready to take the 49ers to the playoffs in 2010.
The defense still has holes, but I like the direction it is headed. Patrick Willis is one of my favorite players in the league and may be the most talented overall defender in the game. First rounder Aldon Smith is a pass-rushing freak, and Smith and Willis should be the NFC’s version of Baltimore’s Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs.
The 49ers are still one year away from putting a stranglehold on the NFC West.
Seattle Seahawks: Steady Trending, Slightly Down
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Pete Carroll’s Seahawks surprised me in 2010 as I never pictured them to win the division. I definitely did not expect them to beat the Saints in the Wild Card round. Now that the Seahawks have a target on their back, I don’t predict similar success.
The team will be another middle of the pack season as the passing attack continues to disappoint. Mike Williams will see more attention, but I have more concerns with Charlie Whitehurst as the starter. Even if Matt Hasselbeck returns, he’s not a great option anymore.
I really like this offensive line and running back core with Marshawn Lynch, which means the Seahawks are headed in the right direction. This team has the pieces to compete, but its major voids will prove to be too difficult to overcome.
St. Louis Rams: Trending Up
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Sam Bradford was fantastic as a rookie last year, and he now has targets to throw to after St. Louis drafted Lance Kendricks, Austin Pettis and Greg Salas. With Steven Jackson, this young offense will be ready to take the team to a division crown.
The defense is improving and first rounder Robert Quinn should help develop former No. 2 overall pick Chris Long.
The key to the defensive unit is star linebacker James Laurinaitis. The Rams should have made the playoffs last year but stumbled in the final game of the season—expect that to change in 2010.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Trending Up
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I raved about Raheem Morris’ Bucs throughout 2010 as they completely shocked me with their turnaround season.
The offense is set with Josh Freeman, the game’s next great winning quarterback. He leads a great, young offense consisting of Mike Williams, LeGarrette Blount, Arrelious Benn and veteran Kellen Winslow.
Morris made fantastic selections in the draft with defensive ends Adrian Clayborn and Da’Quan Bowers and linebacker Mason Foster.
Unfortunately, the team will probably lose Aquib Talib, which meads the secondary will be extremely lacking. At least they have the front seven to compete. Expect more of the same success in 2010 as they fight for a division title.
Tennessee Titans: Trending Down
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The Titans had an up and down draft, headlined by the No. 8 overall selection of the athletic Jake Locker.
I’ve never been a Locker fan and don’t believe he has what it takes to win as a rookie. It remains to be seen if Kerry Collins will be back with the team too.
The team does not have great receiving options after last year’s breakout star Kenny Britt. The team will look to get the ball into the hands of superstar Chris Johnson more often in creative ways, but he will not single-handedly take the team closer to their goal.
This defensive unit is starting to slip, though it should be rather solid throughout the season. I predict another top-10 selection as the team is in rebuilding mode following the Jeff Fisher-Vince Young era.
Washington Redskins: Trending Down
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The Redskins still need a ton of help on both sides of the ball. DeAngelo Hall was fantastic in 2010, but they need to bolster the cornerback position. I like LaRon Landry, but he’s more of a run-stuffing safety than a viable option in pass coverage.
Brian Orakpo and first-rounder Ryan Kerrigan make a nice core, but that’s about it on the front seven.
The Albert Haynesworth experiment was a monstrous failure, yet he still remains with the team as of today.
The same goes for Donovan McNabb, despite everyone knowing he will not start for Mike Shanahan.
Instead, Shanahan seems hell bent on starting either John Beck or re-signing Rex Grossman. I guess Shanahan knows what I know—this team is not talented enough to compete and will have a top-five pick in the 2012 draft.
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