7 Reasons 49ers' Alex Smith Will Start 16 Games This Season
In a story dated May 18, 2011, Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury gave a very good overview of the Alex Smith experience with the 49ers. It is a solid undertaking of what makes Alex Smith the compelling (some say hair-pulling) object of both disdain and affection.
The story also can be seen as the quintessential “Glass half full/half-empty” issues that so often come into play when assessing talent and leadership in the National Football League.
There are the literalists who look at Smith’s numbers and shrug. It’s all there: 57.1 completion percentage with 51 TDs in five years compared to 53 interceptions. He’s regularly booed for seemingly dumping the ball off on third-and-long plays, reducing the chances for first downs. But more than that is the 19-31 mark. Out of 50 games Alex Smith has started for the 49ers, the team has won only 19.
That right there seems to be enough evidence to convince even the most pro-No.11 fan to realize that, yes, all in all, Alex Smith has never made the grade. And he never made it particularly in the light as the league’s overall first draft choice in 2005.
But one who doesn’t buy into the stats is new 49er coach Jim Harbaugh. He’s seen the film and he’s looked over the field and assessed the team and considered the options and came to the conclusion that Smith is needed back in 49er Land.
The dissenters may be shocked, but there are reports now floating around the Bay Area that even Alex Smith himself seems inclined to return for a sixth season. Here are seven reasons he’ll start all 16 games in 2011.
Experienced, Huge Offensive Line
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Rookies in 2010, tackle Anthony Davis and guard Mike Iupati are one year better. Center Eric Heitman returns, meaning guys like David Baas and Joe Staley will be available as starters or high-quality backups.
That means there’s a better chance for Alex Smith not finding a defensive end waiting for Smith in the pocket on those here-it-comes-pass plays that every team has to execute.
It’s one thing to surprise a team with an unexpected call; or have the perfect play for the defense. The offense has the upper hand in those situations. In the past, when Smith had to throw and the other team knew he had to throw, success went out the window.
Many blame the quarterback. I blamed the scheme. There’s no way someone like Smith, who is 6’1” should be forced to stand in the pocket again and again on third-and-long. Put Peyton Manning in that situation and you’ll see his numbers tumble into the Land of 51-53, too.
Gore on the Swing
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Frank Gore is one of the most accomplished backs in the NFL, and as a third-round pick in 2005, one of the best in terms of value. He’s a great runner, can catch, and yet his blocking in picking up the blitz might be as good as any back in the league.
And this year you won’t see him in the I-formation with 11 sets of eyes staring at him. Harbaugh’s West Coast offense will enable Gore to receive the ball in better places at better times—namely in stride and in space—and that could turn out to be extraordinarily successful for the 49ers.
Instead of running it 14 to 18 times a game, Gore might get 12 carries (25 percent less handoffs) but six passes (100 percent more receptions). Many of those might come on dump-offs, but more importantly an innovative, energetic offense that keeps the defense guessing should mean that those short passes don’t come on 3rd-and-9 but on 2nd-and-4.
Gore should turn many of those into first downs, and that makes the quarterback look good.
He Can Move
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Say what you will, but Smith has been rather elusive. In 2006, he started all 16 games but was sacked only 35 times. And that was behind an offensive line that was not considered among the top third in the league.
Credit offensive coordinator Norv Turner. And the Niners finished 7-9 and from that moment on the expectations were that Smith would propel the 49ers into the playoffs.
Since then, coaching changes (Turner left for the Chargers), and the Niners haven’t been the same. The fans, however, have been all over Smith. And particularly in the “smash-mouth” era under Mike Singletary (though it precedes him somewhat with Mike Nolan), Smith at times found himself in situations that reduced his chances for success.
In other words, it the rush came and the line couldn’t hold up. He broke a shoulder and then lost Nolan’s confidence when he didn’t demonstrate the willingness to return fast enough.
The point is this: When a play breaks down, Smith can move out of the pocket. He throws on the run well. What he doesn’t do well and will be made to improve on is holding onto the ball.
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Fits the Scheme
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He was far from the mold of the classic NFL quarterback—not tall enough, not enough arm strength, not tough enough. Well, take the last one away from that 1979 third-round draft pick Joe Montana. Everyone knew he was tough enough; still, in the NFL, everyone is tough. You still need the size to take the pounding and the arm to make the plays.
Except Joe did it with quick feet and a quicker mind, reading the defense on the dropback and delivering the ball quickly and with pinpoint accuracy to the receiver at the right time.
Just like that, the West Coast offense crystallized into the NFL’s art form.
The question lingers: Did Bill Walsh’s offense make Montana, or did Joe Montana’s innate skills make the offense?
Most say that, in light of Virgil Carter’s success back in the early 1970s for the Cincinnati Bengals, of which Walsh was the offensive coordinator, that the WCO made Montana. Either way, the blending of the two made each better.
No doubt, this is what Harbaugh sees in Smith; quick release, good accuracy, good feet. Now it’s just about building confidence. That’s where Harbaugh’s playbook comes in.
Unique Time
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There’s no doubt that the offseason lockout by the NFL owners changed the landscape of what teams could and could not do in terms of trades and free agency. That said, the Niner front office and coaching staff have to be commended to be realists about the situation.
They looked at the horizon, saw the most likely events unfolding just as they have, and realized that there’s very little chance that there will be a great deal of time to look over free agents or to arrange trades
So they did what they thought the most prudent, which was consider what they had on hand and project how it will fit into the scheme that Harbaugh wants to run on offense.
Just like that, Smith is obviously the best candidate. In another time, he might have been released or traded, but this year is not that year. Smith’s in.
Never Get Enough
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When: 1988.
Where: 49er training camp, Rocklin, California.
Who: Me (sports writer covering team for Bay Area newspaper) and Dan Fouts, who was visiting NFL camps in his new job as NFL TV commentator.
The scene: Joe Montana taking snaps during morning practice. Anxious backup Steve Young, just over in a trade, anxiously waiting on sidelines.
Me: “Steve’s getting anxious. He feels he’s not getting enough snaps in practice.”
Fouts: “You never get enough snaps. No one ever gets enough snaps.”
And there it is. The position of NFL quarterback is so demanding as to be singular. And no matter how much you do practice in 11-on-11 drills in camp and during regular-season practices, it’s still not at game speed.
The onslaught of rushing behemoths in front of scurrying linebackers and defensive backs as receivers slant and feign and turn has to be read accurately and quickly as the quarterback backpeddles. Then he QB still has to set the feet, square the shoulders and fire the ball into a 6x6 inch window. Across the field.
In short, all quarterbacks want more. Right now, Alex Smith has the most, and that means he’ll be most comfortable and that means the Niners have the best chance of winning with him than any other option at this time.
Harbaugh Personality
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They have hit it off.
Smith just had a kid.
Harbaugh just had a kid.
They both are highly competitive.
Harbaugh loves playing the under-dog, they-don’t-respect-us role. (Example, see Stanford vs. USC, 2009 and 2010).
Smith’s best games have come when he has come off the bench and led the team back from big deficits.
They might think and act alike, but only one will be throwing the ball come Sunday. It is a demonstration of Jim Harbaugh’s innate ability to transform players into something more than what is expected that makes him the coach that he is.
He’s done it on the college level. Smith is his first big project in the pros.
Jim Harbaugh will not give up on Jim Harbaugh. And that means he won’t give up on Alex Smith.
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