College Football 2011: 10 Teams Not in Preseason Top 25 That Could Party Crash
Nick Saban and Bob Stoops have already rented a huge marquee tent for the 2011 season.
It’s one of those big, white circus tents complete with flooring, climate control and windows, and it’s completely exclusive.
Once the party gets going this coming season the full bar will be stocked with “top shelf” everything and appropriately dressed waitstaff will scurry in and out of the tent with hor d'oeuvres, chafing dishes for the buffet and luxurious desserts.
Some nights they’ll be a live band but there will always be fresh flowers, soft lighting and richly dressed patrons accompanied by their “pleasing to the eye” guests.
It’s exclusive, it’s elite, it’s by invitation only; it’s the Top 25 party and it’s the precursor to the BCS bash, which is moved inside to some mahogany-lined boardroom with a big vat of cash.
So, who will crash the party?
Who will show up a little tipsy, with his shirt untucked, hair mussed and smelling of perspiration and turf?
Who will be stopped at the door of the tent to show his surely nonexistent credentials and then, much to the shock and horror of the “regulars,” be allowed access to football’s version of fantasyland?
“Oh, Nicholas...who is that?” A lady with a large floppy hat whispers to her coaching companion in an expensive sport coat, slowly swirling a glass of expensive scotch with a championship-ringed hand.
The tent goes silent when the slightly staggering, clearly exhausted but jubilant guest moves slowly towards the bar...
Yes, friend, who will party crash the Top 25 in 2011?
Michigan
1 of 10
The last time Michigan finished the season ranked in the Top 25 was in 2007 when they went 9-4 and were ranked No. 18 in the final AP poll.
This was the final season of the Lloyd Carr era in Ann Arbor, which of course ushered in the age of Rich Rod that ultimately produced a 15-22 record over three painful years.
So, why does Michigan have a shot to crash the party in 2011?
First, Denard Robinson and 18 additional starters return from the 2010 squad; this is the second-most returning starters in the nation. This can’t be anything but a big, fat positive.
Second, Rich Rodriguez is gone.
We can discuss Brady Hoke versus Rich Rod and dissect the new coordinators and schemes but the bottom line is when a coach leaves after three subpar seasons and a new, successful, motivated coach comes in, something good is bound to happen.
This factor obviously won’t fix everything, but a positive, refreshing undertone in a place that has been spanked with negativity simply cannot hurt.
Third, the schedule; it’s certainly not “easy” but you can find nine wins in there, especially if the Wolverines can even minimally bring up the play of their defense.
Fourth, the new Big Ten format (which has Michigan in the Legends division) means teams only have to win a division crown (in the Wolverines' case they will have to best Michigan State, Nebraska, Iowa, Northwestern and Minnesota) to have a shot at the championship game.
This makes moving back up the ladder more complicated, but taking teams like Wisconsin, Penn State (both not even on the schedule next season) and Ohio State out of the mix in terms of who moves on and who doesn’t you can see a clearer “path” to the postseason.
The Wolverines have been ranked in the final polls 56 times in the 74 years since the AP started ranking teams back in 1936; you have to figure their return is somewhat imminent.
BYU
2 of 10
After 88 years of being affiliated with a conference the Cougars enter 2011 as an independent team for the first time in their long history.
Is this why nobody is taking BYU seriously in 2011?
If you remember, 2010 was touted as a bit of a rebuilding year in Provo and the Cougars still managed a 7-6 record, which included a 52-24 thumping of UTEP in the New Mexico Bowl.
Previous to last season BYU was ranked in the final AP poll for four consecutive seasons, so this is actually a team that shouldn’t have that far to go to get back in.
So, why is BYU party crasher-worthy?
First, the Cougars return 17 starters from last season’s offering, which is tied for No. 5 nationally in returners. This type of stability and maturity will be a huge advantage for BYU.
Secondly, the hodgepodge, “we’re independent now” schedule features seven games that should be “winnable.”
Home games against UCF, Utah State, San Jose State, Idaho State, Idaho, New Mexico State and then on the road at Hawaii; these certainly aren’t “sure things” but it’s reasonable to say they are “expected.”
This leaves the Cougars (who will need nine wins to crash the Top 25) 2-3 wins short, which will have to come either at Ole Miss, at Texas, versus Utah at home, at Oregon State or against TCU in Arlington, Texas.
Really, this might be a good year to face each of these teams, which are all historically strong but (with the exception of Utah and TCU) struggled last season; and TCU will be rebuilding.
Finally, how does the “independent” mindset affect the Cougars? There is suddenly no conference crown to compete for, no standings and no bowl game bids based on your finish (in fact the Cougars already have a bid lined up).
This allows BYU to run its ship a bit under the radar, which at the end of the day, really can’t hurt.
Bronco Mendenhall is an upstanding guy and even a snappy dresser; so, it’s quite easy to see him saddling up to a shocked Bob Stoops and Les Miles at the big buffet with the ice sculpture of Bobby Bowden.
North Carolina
3 of 10
Where do the Tar Heels go after 2010?
What looked to be the year for North Carolina was summarily thwarted by suspensions and ongoing drama that trickled throughout the entire season.
So, how did North Carolina manage to go 8-5 in a season that, in reality, teetered on the brink of disaster all season long?
Is the silver lining to last year’s personnel losses the fact that this year will be much easier to manage because UNC was already forced to “manage” last season?
What about the guys who will be on the field in 2011?
What about QB Bryn Renner? What about arguably the best receiving corps in the nation? What about the defensive front seven which is stacked with NFL talent?
These guys could win the ACC Coastal Division...Virginia Tech will have a bit of rebuilding to do, Miami (FL) is a total unknown and the Tar Heels have the real pleasure of flying completely under the radar.
And then there is the schedule; non-conference games against FCS James Madison, Rutgers, Louisville and at ECU are bolstered by only four ACC road trips—at Georgia Tech, at Clemson, at Virginia Tech and at NC State.
Florida State and Maryland aren’t on the slate at all.
What if the write-up of the 2011 Tar Heel campaign goes something like this: After surviving a 2010 season filled with suspensions and unrealized hopes, the 2011 football Tar Heels exploded with a stifling defense and an offense that, led by Bryn Renner, shocked the nation by spurring UNC to an ACC Coastal title and a near miss to Florida State in the ACC title game.
“I’ll have a crown and coke and the lady will have a mimosa.”—Butch Davis, November 2011.
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Pittsburgh
4 of 10
Was anyone else mildly surprised that Dave Wannestedt got the axe at the end of the 2010 season?
Wannestedt’s Panthers went 8-5 and shared a piece of the Big East title last season, which brought his total mark as the Pitt head coach up to 42-31.
It seems to have all come down to very high expectations (the Panthers went 10-3 in 2009) and not-so-lofty results; Pitt was expected to win the Big East and be a dark horse contender for the BCS title, or, at the very least receive a BCS bid.
This makes four losses and the BBVA Compass Bowl bid hard to swallow (especially when you add in the fact that Panthers fans had to watch UConn prance off with the BCS bid).
To me, Pittsburg in 2011 has the potential to climatically produce the “perfect storm,” a squall that could produce the kind of results that were expected in 2010.
First, the media hype is gone. The TV cameras and their bulky cables have been loaded into the back of the van and ESPN isn’t calling the Pitt SID office with nearly as much frequency.
This allows the Panthers to make their preparations without the harsh and seductive lights of fame getting in their way.
Secondly, there is the “Todd Graham” factor. Yes, Todd Graham, the guy who replaced Mike Haywood after he replaced Dave Wannestedt.
Here’s the deal—what Pitt struggled with in 2010 was scoring points. They ranked No. 67 overall in scoring and averaged 26.3 points per game.
Fortuitously, offense is exactly what Todd Graham had great success with at Tulsa; the Golden Hurricanes ranked No. 13 in passing yards, No. 15 in rushing yards and No. 6 in scoring last season. All this resulted in a 10-3 record and Tulsa’s first final AP ranking in 20 years, with a defense that ranked No. 85.
With the Panthers returning a lot of experienced skill offensively and the bulk of a very good defense 2011 looks promising.
Finally, it’s the Big East and somebody has got to win it.
Yes, Pitt has games with Iowa, Notre Dame and Utah in 2011 but at the end of the day they just have to win the Big East (and TCU doesn’t officially join up until 2012).
It also seems fortuitous that fellow Big East team West Virginia is starting to receive so much hype, which is probably warranted but does even more to shield Pitt as a true threat.
Air Force
5 of 10
The Falcons haven’t finished a season ranked in the Top 25 since 1998 when they went 12-1 and were ranked No. 13.
Air Force finished 2010 at 9-4, with its only losses to Utah (by five points), undefeated TCU (in Fort Worth), a good San Diego State team (by two points) and finally the thrilling two-point loss to Oklahoma in Norman (the closet anyone came to beating the Sooners at home in 2011).
The Falcons return 14 starters from last season and included are the two top rushers and all but two of the offensive linemen that led Air Force to a No. 2 ranking in rushing yards.
The biggest argument for Troy Calhoun and his fliers crashing the tent soirée is the Mountain West Conference, which has been transformed with the loss of Utah and BYU and the addition of Boise State.
These alterations impact Air Force’s schedule immeasurably. Yes, they have to play TCU for one more year (but this year it’s at home and early in the season, the right time to meet a rebuilding team) and will travel to Boise State in late October. Other than these and a road trip to Notre Dame, the Falcons could win out.
If they do, that’s nine wins and therefore if (a big “if”) they could beat either of the remaining three it’s suddenly a 10-win season.
Penn State
6 of 10
I personally think the omission of Penn State from preseason Top 25 rankings (thus far) is a bit odd.
Sure, there have been no “official” rankings yet, but doesn’t Penn State return 16 total starters in 2011?
Yes, they finished a disappointing 7-6 in 2010, but isn’t it curious that even Las Vegas has the Nittany Lions at 20-to-1 odds to win the BCS national title in 2011?
And those are the ninth-best odds of any team in the nation.
Really, one of the reasons Penn State gets overlooked is because Big Ten media stories are pumped with Ohio State, Wisconsin and Michigan; Nebraska joining the tribe exasperates this even further.
Though there are many compelling arguments as to why a team that went 41-13 from 2005-09 will be back in the Top 25 in 2011, the following are two worth mentioning.
First, the Nittany Lions find themselves placed in the new Big Ten Leaders division, which also includes Wisconsin, Ohio State, Illinois, Purdue and Indiana.
The obvious “teams to beat” in this arrangement are the Badgers and Buckeyes; we all know about OSU’s woes and the Badgers certainly are not a team that “can’t be beat.”
All Penn State has to do to play in the Big Ten title game is finish atop the Leaders Division—again, we’re talking about Penn State (not Purdue).
Secondly, Penn State’s 2011 schedule is front-loaded and there is every chance that the Nittany Lions could be 8-1 or 7-2 (the biggest hurdle being a visit from the Crimson Tide in Week 2) going into the last three games of the season.
The finish will be memorable—hosting Nebraska in Happy Valley and then road trips to new divisional rivals Ohio State and Wisconsin.
However, if Penn State starts playing like Penn State again, it could win every one of these games.
JoePa is the perfect party crasher. Yes, everyone respects the guy, but how much would you love to see him shuffle in with a case of High Life tall boys while Mack Brown and Will Muschamp are clinking their champagne flutes together, toasting each other’s rise to fame and fortune?
Georgia
7 of 10
The Bulldogs crept back into the bottom of some Top 25 rankings earlier in the year but have seemingly disappeared from newer listings.
Georgia football, after sputtering to its worst finish in 2010 since going 5-6 in 1996, is operating under the cover of “will they do that again,” and this performance-driven mistrust has the Bulldogs in media limbo.
To me, Georgia is a team that has a better opportunity to finish in the Top 25 than some of the teams that are actually in the Top 25 (i.e. Auburn, Texas, Mississippi State).
Why?
Well, first the Bulldogs return 17 starters in 2011 and though there are serious hits at receiver and linebacker, a bunch of skill players will be back and ready to prove that 2010 was a blip on the radar.
Secondly, Mark Richt, if he wants to keep his job at Georgia, will be the most motivated college football coach in the country (with the exception of maybe Mack Brown).
Third, and perhaps most importantly, Georgia may have the easiest schedule in the SEC next season, which is a fact that is a bit shielded by the “game of the century” opener against Boise State.
Yeah, that’s a huge game (I think the Bulldogs will win it) but Alabama, LSU and Arkansas are all completely off the schedule. Road trips are to Ole Miss, Tennessee, Vandy and Georgia Tech while Mississippi State, South Carolina, Auburn and Kentucky are all home affairs.
If an SEC team wins nine games it is in the Top 25 and nine wins are a distinct possibility for Georgia, especially if they play up to Bulldogs standards.
Georgia “belongs” in the big tent so it will be considered less of a “crasher” than a “re-joiner.”
“Oh Mark...how have you been...you missed it last season when George O’Leary from UCF was allowed to come in towards the end of the season...did you know that UCF’s mascot are the Knights? They even beat somebody from the SEC in a bowl game...we did a canned food drive for the less fortunate teams.”
USC
8 of 10
Yes, the Trojans are banned from both the BCS and postseason play in 2011 but that doesn’t mean they can’t be ranked in the AP poll.
In fact, under similar circumstances in 2010, USC was ranked No. 14 in the AP preseason poll, No. 16 in the Week 2 poll, No. 18 in the Week 3 poll, No. 20 in the Week 4 poll, No. 18 in Week 5 and then dropped from the rankings.
There is absolutely no reason to believe that USC can’t be ranked in the Top 25 at some point in 2011.
USC returns 13 total starters in 2011 including QB Matt Barkley, WR Robert Woods and RB Marc Tyler.
As far as the schedule is concerned the three biggest tests include road trips to Notre Dame and Oregon and then hosting Stanford at home in the Coliseum.
It’s hard to believe that the Trojans are only two seasons removed from reeling off an impressive seven consecutive Pac-10 titles (and back-to-back national crowns in 2003-04).
This all means that USC is hardly a program devoid of talent, speed and the confidence that only a program that wins big and wins often can provide.
Utah
9 of 10
Isn’t Utah finally blossoming into a flowering BCS school enough of a storyline for 2011?
Won’t its very survival be on the line as it faces its first set of Pac-12 opponents?
Won’t it take the Utes at least a few seasons to get “ramped up” to the new level of competition, athleticism and recruiting?
Well, here are but a few arguments that say, “No, Utah will be ready in 2011 and you’ll see the Utes in the Top 25 in their first season in the new Pac-12.”
First, though Utah only returns 14 starters in 2011, the QB and his main target are back on campus. The defense certainly took a few more hits but still returns plenty of upperclassmen.
Secondly, Utah is a member of the Pac-12 South Division, which really lacks a clear front-runner; Arizona State is the unproven “dark horse,” USC is not postseason eligible, Arizona is rebuilding and UCLA and Colorado struggled mightily in 2010.
Third, the Utes schedule is not as scary as you might have imagined—at USC, at BYU, at Pitt, at Cal, at Arizona and at Washington State. Home games are against Washington, Arizona State, Oregon State, UCLA and Colorado.
Stanford and Oregon are completely off the schedule.
So, what if Utah is actually the “dark horse” candidate in the new South Division?
Remember, the Utes have finished the last three consecutive seasons ranked in the polls at season’s end (No. 2, No. 18 and No. 23).
Clemson
10 of 10
Clemson finished ranked in the Top 25 only one season ago in 2009, when it went 9-5 and won the ACC Atlantic Division.
The Tigers dropped to 6-7 in 2010 but six of the seven losses were decided by a total of 31 points (that’s an average margin of loss of just over five points).
QB Kyle Parker and RB Jamie Harper are gone but back are 17 starters from 2010, including a big chunk of the defense that ranked No. 13 in scoring last season.
Clemson is a talented team that seems somewhat forgotten among Florida State’s ultra-huge aspirations and the improving fortunes of NC State and Maryland.
The schedule makes this tendency to overlook the Tigers seem justified. They have home games against Auburn, Florida State and North Carolina interlaced with difficult road trips to Virginia Tech, Maryland, Georgia Tech, NC State and South Carolina.
But, with virtually no hype and everyone mesmerized by Jimbo Fisher doing the tomahawk chop, what if Clemson can maintain its high defensive standards while beginning to move the ball with more success?
What if the Tigers start winning games? What if they are underrated and some of their opponents don’t live up to expectations?
Then “what if” becomes Coach and Mrs. Dabo Swinney getting gussied up to have a cocktail with the Stoopses, the Mileses and perhaps even the Spurriers from across the state in Columbia.
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