2011 NFL Predictions: 5 Reasons Cam Newton Is Destined for Failure
The Carolina Panthers made a bold move by selecting Cam Newton with the first pick in the 2011 NFL draft. With no second-round pick, the Panthers knew they might come out of this draft with only one impact player for the 2011-2012 season. After seeing rookie quarterbacks like Matt Ryan, Sam Bradford and Joe Flacco turn around their franchises in their first year, the Panthers opted to take Newton, hoping he too could make an impact next year.
Whether Newton one day becomes an elite quarterback and leads Carolina to the playoffs remains uncertain, but Newton will likely put up terrible numbers in 2011 for the following reasons...
1. Poorly Prepared in College
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It’s difficult to adjust to the pro level for any rookie, but especially for rookie quarterbacks. They face stronger, speedier pass rushers and speedier cornerbacks with better play-reading abilities and reaction times. Most importantly, rookie quarterbacks are typically operating out of a formation with which they are unfamiliar.
Newton has some of these problems and more. First, Newton must transition from a spread offense to a pro-style one. Some college quarterbacks benefit from operating out of a pro-style offense, but Newton didn’t and must adjust to his new offensive formation.
Second, if no receiver is open, Newton is not going to have the option to run as frequently as he did at Auburn. Newton was far too dependent on his rushing abilities in college, rushing the ball 94 times for every 100 pass attempts. By comparison, draft-bust Vince Young, who was unable to transition from a "run-first, pass-second" quarterback, ran the ball 48 times for every 100 pass attempts during his senior season.
Finally Newton has very little experience for an NFL quarterback, starting only one year in college. Newton’s senior season was full of success, yes, but it did very little to prepare him for the next level.
2. Nobody To Learn Behind
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A recent trend in the NFL is to sit your rookie quarterback for part of his rookie season (Josh Freeman) or even for entire seasons (Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers), giving him the opportunity to learn from your current starter. This isn’t necessary in order to be a successful rookie quarterback (Matt Ryan), but it’s certainly helpful.
Unfortunately, Cam Newton is completely deprived of this opportunity. Jimmy Clausen, in terms of playing ability, experience and mentality, is certainly not capable of being a mentor. Neither is third-stringer Brian St. Pierre, who only has 33 career passing attempts. These quarterbacks need just as much development as Newton, who will be forced to learn the game himself without any veteran guidance.
3. Lack of Quality Receivers
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You know you’re in a difficult spot when none of your new receivers went over 600 yards receiving last season. And you know you’re in an even worse spot when the best of those receivers, Steve Smith, is demanding out. The Panthers receivers were severely held back by poor quarterback play last season, but with the exception of Smith, none of them have a proven track record of production.
If Smith is traded, it’s unlikely that the Panthers could entice one of the better WR free agents to fill his shoes and stake their success on an unproven rookie quarterback.
The only bright spot is 2010 sixth-rounder David Gettis, who caught 37 passes for 508 yards and three touchdowns last year opposite Smith. Still, Gettis struggled down the stretch last season, gaining only 108 yards in his final six games. Adjusting to the speed of the NFL is tough enough for rookie quarterbacks, and Newton will have to do that with a receiving core that’s only a step above his college one.
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4. Difficulty of Schedule
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Unfortunately for Newton, Carolina got stuck with the hardest 2011 NFL schedule by far. The 2010 winning percentage of Carolina’s 2011 opponents was .555, and besides the Bills, no other team faces opponents with a combined winning percentage over .520. But that’s how the cookie crumbles when every other team in your division finished with at least 10 wins.
More problematic for Newton is that half of Carolina’s games are against teams that finished in the top 10 in points allowed per game last season. And that doesn’t include Carolina’s opening game against the Cardinals, who drafted cornerback Patrick Peterson, dubbed “the next Charles Woodson,” with the fifth overall pick.
The addition of three highly touted pass rushers—Adrian Clayborn (Buccaneers), Cameron Jordan (Saints) and Da’Quan Bowers (Buccaneers)—to the NFC South will also create many headaches for the run-happy rookie.
5. Unrealistic Expectations
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If you told an NFL draftnik back in December that Cam Newton would be the first selection in the draft, they would have laughed in your face and asked how much you had to drink that evening. At the end of the college football season, Newton was viewed as an intriguing project player akin to Tim Tebow—someone with raw skills and athleticism that needed to be polished before starting an NFL game.
At the time most mock drafts had Newton going in the middle of Round 1 to teams like the Dolphins, the Vikings or the Jaguars. Some mocked him as high as 10th overall to the Redskins, others as low as 25th to the Seahawks. Also, most mock drafts predicted Newton would be at least the third quarterback chosen (after Andrew Luck and Blaine Gabbert) and some even mocked Jake Locker and Ryan Mallett ahead of Newton. So what happened?
First Andrew Luck decided to return to school. Then rumors of drugs and a terrible combine interview plummeted Ryan Mallett’s stock. Throw in Jake Locker’s inconsistency, Da’Quan Bowers’ bum knee, an underweight Nick Fairley and voila! Cam Newton leaps up draft boards.
What’s interesting is that, aside from Newton’s combine interview, nothing that boosted Newton’s stock between the end of college football and the NFL draft had anything to do with his ability to play football. Newton had, and still has, the promise of a mid-first-round pick. This means that, even if he lives up to his potential, he will be considered a disappointment because he bears the expectations of a first overall pick.
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