Buffalo Bills to Add Veteran QB Backup to Ryan Fitzpatrick, but Who Will It Be?

The Buffalo Bills chose not to draft a quarterback in the 2011 NFL Draft. They had previously declared Ryan Fitzpatrick will be awarded the starting quarterback job for the 2011 NFL season. The only other quarterback on the Bills roster was 2010 rookie Levi Brown, so the Bills are precariously thin from a depth chart perspective.

Buffalo Bills.com lead journalist Chris Brown talked to Bills Head Coach Chan Gailey and Gailey shared that he plans to add at least one veteran quarterback to the mix, possibly as many as two.

Since NFL teams are not allowed to talk to free agents, due to the current NFL rules regarding the owners and the players during the lockout, all we can do is speculate as to who the Bills might be interested in going after once the ban is lifted.

We will analyze 35 potential quarterbacks that the Bills could consider, and will weed them out according to our criterion for what skills we need to see to be a successful quarterback.You may be surprised by some of the final recommendations.

Possible Backups: Going Around the NFL

We are looking at all quarterbacks that are either in the market, are deep down on the depth chart, or have already been released. For fun we threw in a few starters that are available to see where they would rank.

Here is the universe of 35 choices I came up with. If the Bills don't pull someone from this group, then it means they didn't add a veteran. Listed by quarterback, team each player was last with and number of years of NFL experience.

From the AFC: Bruce Gradkowski (OAK, 6), Kyle Boller (OAK, 8), Kerry Collins (TEN, 17), Vince Young (TEN, 6), Tyler Thigpen (MIA, 5), Brady Quinn (DEN, 5), Brodie Croyle (KC, 6), Billy Volek (SD, 12), Marc Bulger (BAL, 11), Carson Palmer (CIN, 9), Seneca Wallace (CLE, 9), Chad Pennington (MIA, 12), Byron Leftwich (PIT, 9), Matt Leinart (HOU, 6), Trent Edwards (JAX, 5), Luke McCown (JAX, 8) and Chris Simms (TEN, 9).

From the NFC: Tarvaris Jackson (MIN, 6), Jon Kitna (DAL, 15), Sage Rosenfels (NYG, 11), Jim Sorgi (NYG, 8), Kevin Kolb (PHI, 5), Donovan McNabb (WAS, 13), Rex Grossman (WAS, 9), Derek Anderson (ARI, 7), David Carr (SF, 10), Alex Smith (SF, 7), Troy Smith (SF, 5) Matt Hasselbeck (SEA, 13), J.P. Losman (SEA, 7), A.J. Feeley (ST.L., 11), Drew Stanton (DET, 5), Patrick Ramsey (MIN, 9), Chris Redman (ATL, 9) and Matt Moore (CAR, 5).

Experience: Minimum of 20 Games

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INDIANAPOLIS - JANUARY 02: Kerry Collins #5 of the Tennessee Titans throws a pass during NFL game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium on January 2, 2011 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

First Step: We are going to eliminate everybody that has not yet appeared in at least 20 NFL games during their career. If they haven't seen that much action, they would still be too green behind the ears to serve the purposes of what the Bills want for a veteran QB.

Here is who remains, as ranked by games played:

More than 100 games: K. Collins (195), M. Hasselbeck (170), D. McNabb (161) and J. Kitna (138).

The rest: C. Palmer (97), M. Bulger (96), D. Carr (92), C. Pennington (89), K. Boller (65), B. Leftwich (58), S. Wallace (56), V. Young (54), A. Smith (54), D. Anderson (51), S. Rosenfels (44), J.P. Losman (43), R. Grossman (41), B. Volek (37), T. Edwards (37), P. Ramsey (37), T. Jackson (36), B. Gradkowski (32), M. Leinart (29), C. Redman (25) C. Simms (23), A.J. Feeley (23), T. Thigpen (22), Matt Moore (22) and Troy Smith (20).

Who we just eliminated: K. Kolb (19), B. Croyle (18), L. McCown (16), B. Quinn (14), J. Sorgi (14) and D. Stanton (12).

Analysis: Of the group we let go, Drew Stanton and Kevin Kolb show the most promise. Kolb has a career ratio of 11 touchdowns to 14 interceptions. Would I give up a first round pick for that? Pass.

We Want Accurate Passers

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ARLINGTON, TX - SEPTEMBER 02: Quarterback Chad Pennington #10 of the Miami Dolphins walks off the field against the Dallas Cowboys during a preseason game at Cowboys Stadium on September 2, 2010 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Imag

Step Two: The next quarterbacks to hit the edit room floor, are the guys that have a QB Passer Rating that is in the 60's or below. This means that they don't complete enough passes, dump the ball off to close to the line of scrimmage, don't throw enough touchdown passes or throw too many interceptions. Another words, they just don't cut the mustard.

Highest rated career QB Passer Ratings of our QB pool: C. Pennington (90.1), C. Palmer (86.9), D. McNabb (85.7), B. Volek (84.9), M. Bulger (84.4), S. Wallace (83.9), M. Hasselbeck (82.2), S. Rosenfels (81.2), B. Leftwich (79.7), C. Redman (79.2), T. Smith (78.5), J. Kitna (77.5), T. Jackson (76.6), V. Young (75.7), J.P. Losman (75.6), T. Edwards (75.4), P. Ramsey (74.9), D. Carr (74.9). M. Moore (73.9), K. Collins (73.9). T. Thigpen (73.7). A. Smith (72.1), R. Grossman (70.9), M. Leinart (70.8), and K. Boller (70.4).

Who we just eliminated: A.J. Feeley (69.6), C. Simms (69.1), D. Anderson (68.8),  B. Gradkowski (65.9),

Touchdowns to Interceptions Ratio

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ARLINGTON, TX - DECEMBER 19: Quarterback Donovan McNabb #5 of the Washington Redskins on the sidelines against play against the Dallas Cowboys at Cowboys Stadium on December 19, 2010 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

Step Three: You want a quarterback that takes care of the ball. Driving it down in to the red zone, only to throw your scoring chances away with a bad interception. If during his career, our quarterbacks have a negative ratio of more interceptions than touchdown passes, we need to cross them off of the list.

Highest (plus vs minus) ratio of touchdowns vs interceptions of our remaining pool of QB's: 

D. McNabb (+ 115), C. Palmer (+ 54)  M. Hasselbeck (+ 48), C. Pennington (+ 38), M. Bulger (+ 29), B. Leftwich (+ 17), S. Wallace (+ 13), B. Volek (+ 12), K. Collins (+ 11), C. Redman (+ 8), P. Ramsey (+ 5) J. Kitna (+ 5) T. Thigpen (+ 4) T. Smith (+ 3) T. Jackson (+ 2), S. Rosenfels (+ 1), V. Young (+/- 0) R. Grossman (+/- 0)

Who we just eliminated:  J. P. Losman (- 1), M. Moore (- 1), A. Smith (- 2), K Boller (- 3), T. Edwards (- 4), M. Leinart (- 6) and D. Carr (- 6)

Comment: For all Bills fans wondering where J.P. Losman or Trent Edwards would finish, you now have your answer. They don't make the grade.

Keep the Chains Moving

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CINCINNATI - DECEMBER 26: Carson Palmer #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals throws a pass during the NFL game against the San Diego Chargers at Paul Brown Stadium on December 26, 2010 in Cincinnati, Ohio. The Bengals 34-20. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Step Four: We are continuing to whittle down our candidate pool of potential available quarterbacks. Now we want to address quarterbacks that hit on a reasonable percentage of their passes. These are the guys that keep drives alive by moving the chains with accurate passing skills. The normal acceptable standard for NFL quarterbacks is 60 percent, and I don't see any good reason for lowering our standards.

Highest career percentage of completed passes attempted: C. Pennington (66.0), C. Palmer (62.9), S. Rosenfels (62.5), M. Bulger (62.1), S. Wallace (60.4), J. Kitna (60.3), M. Hasselbeck (60.1) and B. Volek (60.1).

Those we just eliminated: D. McNabb (59.0),  T. Jackson (58.7), B. Leftwich (58.3), V. Young (57.9), C. Redman (56.8), P. Ramsey (56.0), K. Collins (55.8), T. Thigpen (54.2), R. Grossman (54.2) and T. Smith (51.7).

Comment: Surprised to see McNabb completing less than 60 percent of his passes, but we aren't going to compromise our exercise because he played college ball at Syracuse, are we? Really eliminated quite a few people with this step and so now we are looking at the cream of the crop.

Most Touchdown Passes

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CHICAGO, IL - JANUARY 16: Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck #8 of the Seattle Seahawks looks to throw the ball during pregame before taking on the Chicago Bears in the 2011 NFC divisional playoff game at Soldier Field on January 16, 2011 in Chicago, Illinois.

Step Five: Okay, so now we have whittled our group down to our final eight contenders. That makes it a more manageable group. The final step we want to apply, is how often they have turned a drive in to a successful one, via touchdown passes. We will rate them from most touchdown passes to least. Just so you have a more complete picture, the number right after career touchdown passes, is career passing yardage, another helpful statistic.

M. Hasselbeck (176 TD, 29,579 yards), J. Kitna (168 TD, 29,658 yards), C. Palmer (154 TD, 22,694 yards), (M. Bulger (122 TD, 22,814 yards), C. Pennington (102 TD, 17,823 yards), S. Rosenfels (30 TD, 4,156 yards), S. Wallace (29 TD, 4,241 yards) and B. Volek (27 TD, 3754 yards) .

Affordability to the Bills and Final Verdict

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CLEVELAND - OCTOBER 03: Quarterback Seneca Wallace #6 of the Cleveland Browns looks for a receiver against the Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns Stadium on October 3, 2010 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Matt Sullivan/Getty Images)

Finally, we look at how practical each of these eight finalists are. What would it cost the Bills? Draft picks to trade, huge contract to sign, or other issues that need to be addressed.

Let's take a look at all eight, one at a time. Remember, all eight passed our litmus test, so they have some very decent skills to work with.

M. Hasselbeck—figures to be one of the most expensive QB's in this group. Seattle is still in the running to bring him back. Can't see him being to excited about going from starter to back up. Verdict—unlikely

J. Kitna—38 years old. Oldest QB in our remaining group. Threw 318 passes last year in Dallas after Tony Romo got hurt. Probably figures he can still go to playoffs with Dallas, but maybe Bills will entice him. Verdict—possible.

C. Palmer—power play between Cincinnati Bengals owner Mike Brown and Palmer. At this point, it appears that Palmer is retired, unless Brown gets an offer he can't refuse. Doubt the Bills are looking to surrender any first round draft picks. Verdict—very doubtful.

M. Bulger—34 years old. Did not attempt last season backing up Joe Flacco in Baltimore. Is being viewed as the potential starter in Arizona. So, would he rather start or be a back up again? Verdict—unlikely.

C. Pennington—34 years old. Often injured. Dolphins have Chad Henne and Tyler Thigpen. Pennington had another surgery in the off season, so there is a serious issue here about remaining healthy. Verdict—possible. Bills should look at an incentive laden contract for number of games suited up for.

S. Rosenfels—33 years old. Rusty. Did not throw a pass in 2010 backing up Eli Manning for Giants. As such, he is someone to look at for a low cost contract, but still has some decent skills. Verdict—possible but not first choice.

S. Wallace—With Jake Delhomme and Colt McCoy at Cleveland, Wallace is stuck in depth charts. Has some strong skills, and is probably the best fit from a cost standpoint. He is 30 years old. Attempted 101 passes in 2010, so isn't totally rusty. Verdict—This is the guy to target from the entire group.

B. Volek (27 TD, 3754 yards)—35 years old. Backing up Philip Rivers, he attempted one pass in 2010, so lots of rust here. Has been in San Diego since 2006, so Buddy Nix must have some decent handle on him from their years together. Verdict—another low cost possibility.