
Fantasy Football 2011: Power Ranking the Top 50 Rookies' Fantasy Football Impact
Nothing excites fantasy football owners more than a fresh crop of rookies. The prospect of scooping up the next Adrian Peterson or Randy Moss in the middle rounds of the draft is every owner's dream, because that player could be the x-factor in bringing home a championship.
But rookies are rarely all they're hyped up to be, especially in fantasy football. There will be a few guys in your league who go to absurd lengths to secure the services of their favorite prospects, but don't let that pressure you into doing the same.
In all likelihood, only a handful of the 50 players on this list will make worthwhile impacts, but a significant number of these new draftees have great sleeper potential and even greater keeper league value.
No. 50 Julius Thomas
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John Elway used his first draft to replenish Denver's roster with youth, and he focused his attention towards the tight end corps during the latter rounds. His first of two tight end selections, Julius Thomas, might take longer to make an impact, but might be the next Antonio Gates.
Thomas is a converted basketball player from Portland State who has only one year of football experience. However, his innate athleticism and size suggest he could become an impact player in the NFL. Even though Thomas absolutely needs time to develop, the Broncos have virtually nobody else at tight end. He has no fantasy value now, but if Thomas starts getting reps, get him on your team.
No. 49 Kris Durham
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Initially pinned as an undrafted free agent, Georgia wide receiver Kris Durham bolted up draft boards and landed with the Seahawks in the fourth round. Durham never posted impressive numbers with the 'Dawgs, but his 6'5" frame and 4.6 speed enticed Pete Carroll to reach for him.
Even though Seattle is thin at wide receiver, it's impossible to recommend a prospect who barely produced in college. Durham has intriguing upside, but no real fantasy value for now.
No. 48 Richard Gordon
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Not only did Al Davis acquire one of the fastest running backs and one of the fastest wide receivers during the Draft, he also picked up one of the fastest tight ends. At 6'4", 265 pounds, Gordon clocked a 4.6 40, on pace with many running backs such as Jacquizz Rodgers and Dion Lewis.
The Raiders already have a franchise tight end in Zach Miller, so Gordon's fantasy potential is already very limited. Plus, this team's instability at quarterback does not improve his standing. He's an intriguing prospect, but Gordon has no fantasy value headed into 2011.
No. 47 Aldrick Robinson
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The Redskins draft seemed to get more intriguing as it proceeded. Washington capped off their 2011 Draft Class with SMU wide receiver Aldrick Robinson, one of the most athletically gifted prospects in the entire draft. He ran a 4.43 and caught 14 touchdowns for the Mustangs last season.
Although he needs to bulk up from his 187 pound frame, Washington's receiving corps is kind of a mess, so the competition is wide open. Robinson could have an Anthony Armstrong type impact, but there is really no circumstance in which you should draft a seventh round pick for your fantasy squad. He has some keeper league appeal, but just track his progress for now.
No. 46 Jeremy Kerley
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The statuses of Jets wide receivers Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes is in limbo right now, but the team's decision to draft Jeremy Kerley suggests that they are bracing for the departure of Brad Smith. Although Kerley does not have the Wildcat capabilities that Smith does, he is seething with speed and has great return skills.
Kerley's role and potential are still unknown, but this seems like the likeliest scenario. Smith has carried some fantasy value in the past, so Kerley could be in line for some as well. Don't waste a roster spot on him now, but keep an eye out for his role with the Jets.
No. 45 Jordan Cameron
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Despite a an imposing 6'5", 254 pound frame and a 4.56 40, USC tight end was hardly a heralded prospect. The Browns scooped him up in the fourth round, adding another explosive talent behind Greg Little.
Behind Benjamin Watson, the Browns don't any substantial depth at tight end which bodes well for Cameron. He needs to shore up his blocking skills before he can become a full-time starter, but his sheer size and athleticism should allow him to contribute something in 2011. Cameron is amongst the deepest of sleepers, but fantasy owners would be wise to watch from afar and not waste a pick on such a player who might only barely play.
No. 44 Stevan Ridley
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One of the more surprising selections of the 2011 Draft came during the third round when the Patriots selected LSU running back Stevan Ridley. He hardly produced at all during his days at LSU, and ran a 4.67 40.
Ridley seems to project as a fullback, and has no fantasy value right now. Knowing Bill Belichick, Ridley could easily become the latest out-of-nowhere back to thrive in New England; however, do not pursue him in any format.
No. 43 Jerrel Jernigan
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The Giants continued to bolster one of the league's brightest receiving corps by adding Troy speedster Jerrel Jernigan. He is essentially the poor man's Titus Young of the 2011 Draft Class. Although he ran a 4.48 40, Jernigan is only 5'8", 185 pounds and dominated marginal competition.
With Steve Smith, Mario Manningham, and Hakeem Nicks already established and demanding targets from Eli Manning, it's difficult to see Jernigan making a real impact this season. He might have value as a return-man, but he has none as a fantasy football asset.
No. 42 Tandon Doss
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The Ravens have successfully injected promising youth into their running backs corps and offensive line, but prior to the draft, had failed to address a rapidly aging wide receiving corps. Over Draft Weekend they finally did so, acquiring Torrey Smith and Tandon Doss.
Doss is the more developmental project of the two and is far less likely to make any kind of immediate imapct. If neither T.J. Houshmandzadeh nor Derrick Mason return, Doss could gain some value, but otherwise he only has worth to very deep keeper league teams. He has great hands that could make him the next Housh.
No. 41 Denarius Moore
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Oakland's obsession with speed finally paid off last season when rookie Jacoby Ford, the fastest player in the 2010 Draft Class, had a breakout season. This season, Al Davis continued to concentrate his efforts on speed, and selected former track star Denarius Moore, a wideout from Tennessee.
The Raiders' receiving corps are very unstable. Moore's fantasy value depends on the progression of Darrius Heyward-Bey and Chaz Schilens. If one or both fail to progress, then Moore might sneak up on everybody. He should fall into free agency in every league, but Moore boasts 4.44 speed and caught 10 touchdowns last season, hinting that he could be a difference maker in the NFL--just not right away.
No. 40 Demarco Murray
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Once pinned as a first round prospect, Oklahoma's Demarco Murray was slowed by injuries and criticized by an upright running style. The Cowboys scooped him up in the fourth round, and his arrival likely cements the departure of Marion Barber.
Tashard Choice and Felix Jones obviously occupy most of Dallas' backfield duties, but neither have been able to prove themselves as full-time backs. Murray is a deep sleeper who could compete and earn a role in training camp, but is probably not worth pursuing in any format. Track his progress over the summer, and if he begins to push Jones or Choice for carries, then grab him in your draft or on the waiver wire.
No. 39 Vincent Brown
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Initially, Vincent Brown did not project as much of an NFL wide receiver. He is only 5'11", 187 pounds and ran a modest 4.6 40. But then the San Diego Chargers drafted him. And if anybody knows wide receivers, it's A.J. Smith.
Vincent Jackson's future with the team is cloudy, and Legedu Naanee is slated for free agency this summer. If Jackson stays, Brown should only be acknowledged in keeper leagues; however, if both Naanee and Jackson depart, he might be worth a very late round pick in the deepest of leagues. Every receiver seems to succeed in San Diego's scheme, so keep an eye on Brown, he could become a contributor soon.
No. 38 Luke Stocker
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Kellen Winslow has not exactly panned out as a Tampa Bay Buccaneer, but Raheem Morris may have solved his team's tight end issues by drafting Luke Stocker.
Stocker looks like an NFL tight end with a 6'4", 258 pound frame, and he might be one of the most ready to contribute out of this draft class. Don't expect big numbers, but he could easily become a red zone target for Josh Freeman. Stocker is worth a look as a number two tight end in deeper leagues.
No. 37 Edmond Gates
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After he ran a 4.37 40 at the combine with a bad hamstring, Abilene Christian wide receiver Edmond Gates began grabbing headlines and garnering some attention from the country. However, the hype dissipated, and Gates slid into the Dolphins' open arms in the fourth round.
Gates will need to overcome a great learning curve from D-II to NFL, but if he catches on, he will likely see playing time alongside Brandon Marshall this season. His fantasy value is minimal right now, but this team did turn Davone Bess into a reliable producer, so there's no telling what they might be able to do with Gates.
No. 36 Cecil Shorts
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The Jaguars have an unimaginably ugly history drafting wide receivers. They have recently whiffed on three first round wideouts, so this year, they tried some reverse psychology and drafted one in the fourth round. And the man they drafted, Cecil Shorts III, not only has an awesome name but also big time potential.
Shorts will have to make the astronomical leap from D-III to the NFL, but guys like Pierre Garcon (hails from the same alma mater as Shorts) have done it, and done it quickly. He had a Godzilla-like dominance at Mount Union, catching an absurd 18 touchdowns last season. That kind of play cannot be ignored, and with Mike Sims-Walker likely leaving Jacksonville, Shorts could be in line for plenty of playing time. Don't draft him unless he earns a starting role (at which point he should be drafted), but most definitely track his progress--he has a bright future in the league.
No. 35 Colin Kaepernick
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Colin Kaepernick absolutely dismantled collegiate competition en route to breaking numerous rushing quarterback records. But despite that success, Kaepernick will have to acclimate to a pro style offense after four years in the pistol.
Kaepernick has all of the tools to succeed with the Niners, but he will also have to defeat either Alex Smith or another veteran quarterback for the starting job. Keeper league owners should keep tabs on his progress, but Kaepernick has otherwise minimal fantasy value.
No. 34 Taiwan Jones
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Surprise--the Raiders drafted the fastest running back in the 2011 Draft. Eastern Washington's Taiwan Jones was gaining steam as a potential second round pick prior to the draft, but slipped into the fourth round where Al Davis happily scooped him up.
Jones reportedly clocked a 4.33 40 at his Pro Day, and his highlight tape is pretty ridiculous. But he struggled with fumbles and durability while dominating second-rate competition. Still, he posses sky high potential, but will have to sit behind Darren McFadden and Michael Bush if he doesn't hit the free agency market. If Bush leaves, Jones deserves a look in deeper keeper leagues and the deepest of standard leagues--keep him on your radar regardless of format.
No. 33 Johnny White
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While North Carolina spewed out a ton of highly heralded and hyped draft picks, one slipped under the radar: running back Johnny White. He was on pace for a great 2010 campaign before breaking his clavicle, and his 5'9", 210 pound frame is reminiscent of Michael Turner.
White wound up with the Bills which does not bode well for his immediate fantasy impact. They already have C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson on the roster, but neither were spectacular last season. If White plays up to his potential, he could challenge one of them for reps, but he is otherwise only worth a look in deeper keeper leagues.
No. 32 Robert Housler
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Only the second Florida Atlantic University Owl to ever be selected in the NFL Draft, Cardinals tight end Robert Housler might also become the first real contributor to an NFL squad.
Housler is a tad over 6'5", weighs in at a a hefty 248 pounds, and ran a 4.52 40. He is one of the most unique prospects in the 2011 Draft Class, but spotty hands and physicality might prevent him from fulfilling his potential as a fantasy stud. The Cards lack a true number one tight end, so Housler could fill that role. Keep an eye on him as a deep sleeper, but only draft him in deeper leagues.
No. 31 Dion Lewis
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The Pitt Panthers have a historically great track record of churning out running backs (See: Tony Dorsett, Curtis Martin, Lesean McCoy). Their latest product comes in the shape of 5'6" Dion Lewis, now a member of the Philadelphia Eagles.
With Brian Westbrook out of the picture, Lewis could immediately step in as the team's number two back. All LeSean McCoy owners should target Lewis at the tail end of your drafts, and deep keeper league owners should take a flier as well. He was a dominant runner in college who could be the next Brian Westbrook.
No. 30 Bilal Powell
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Ladainian Tomlinson had his redemption year (his "F.U." to the Chargers) in 2010, but he will soon turn 32, and will burn out sooner rather than later. In order to prep for the future, Rex Ryan drafted Louisville's Bilal Powell, a very well balanced back who could not only contribute, but potentially seize a significant chunk of carries from L.T. and Shonn Greene.
L.T. will likely digress from here on out and Green declined during his sophomore campaign. Powell was dominant at Louisville and boasts NFL size with NFL speed. He might be the biggest sleeper-rookie, and based on the depth chart in front him, might not see the field much in 2011. Everybody should keep an eye out for Powell, but he does not need to be drafted quite yet.
No. 29 Andy Dalton
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If Carson Palmer does not suit up for the Bengals in 2011, then Andy Dalton will likely be in line to start for Cincinnati. Even equipped with A.J. Green, the Bengals' rushing attack is kind of in limbo, and Dalton has drawn mostly mixed reviews from "draft experts."
Keeper league owners might want to take a flier on Dalton if Palmer does not return, but everybody else should steer clear. Rookie quarterbacks rarely succeed, and even less succeed on unstable offenses.
No. 28 Jordan Todman
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Nobody seemed to make note of the incredible free fall Jordan Todman experienced during the draft. The prospect some pinned as a second round pick fell into the sixth round where the Chargers, bracing for the departure of Darren Sproles, picked him up.
Todman was a furious and productive runner at UConn, and he could have significant fantasy value this season. Sproles is likely gone, and if Mike Tolbert leaves as a restricted free agent, then Todman could become the team's number two back. Ryan Mathews didn't have a great rookie season, so if he continues to struggle, Todman could see the field regardless of who is on the roster. If Tolbert and Sproles are gone, Todman warrants a draft pick in all formats, but otherwise, only consider him in the deepest of leagues.
No. 27 Gregory Salas
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Although Greg Salas was the second wide receiver the St. Louis Rams selected over Draft Weekend, some are already predicting loftier success over Austin Pettis. Todd McShay (take his word for what it's worth) predicts that Salas will be a primary target for Bradford in 2011.
If true, then Salas obviously has great fantasy value. The Rams need somebody to emerge and Sam Bradford could form a great connection with whoever does. Salas will likely compete with Laurent Robinson and Mark Clayton, and if he wins playing time, he warrants a spot on your roster.
No. 26 Alexander Green
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One would think that between James Starks and Ryan Grant, the Packers were already set at running back. Wrong. Green Bay was still lacking a third down scat back headed into the draft, and they addressed that via Hawaii's Alex Green.
He has a promising blend of size (6'0", 225 pounds) and speed (4.55 50), and posted monster numbers in the Rainbow Warriors' pass-happy offense. Still, Green is behind Grant and Starks in the pecking order, so unless one of them leaves Green Bay, he has very minimal fantasy value.
No. 25 Austin Pettis
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Although he played second fiddle to Titus Young at Boise State, Austin Pettis might be poised to emerge from that shadow in the NFL. The Rams' third round selection will enter camp with an excellent chance of earning a starting role.
Pettis will likely fight with Danny Amendola for the starting slot receiver role, so the outcome of that battle will dictate his fantasy value. He is probably not worth a draft pick, but keep an eye on Pettis. If he wins a starting role, grab him.
No. 24 Virgil Green
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After 6'3", 250 pound tight end Virgil Green flashes his 4.5 speed at the Combine, his draft catapulted, and he soon became one of the most hyped prospects in the Draft. Slated as a second to fourth round pick, Green didn't hear his name called until the seventh round. This was allegedly due to a microfracture knee surgery Green had four years ago, but he barely missed any action while at Nevada.
Basically, the Broncos may have picked up a third round talent in the seventh round. Green will probably see the field far more often than Julius Thomas, and based on Denver's lack of depth at tight end, he could start and/or become a primary receiving target. Be wary with Green because he's a seventh round pick. There are probably more knocks on him than meets the eye, but if you're in a deep keeper league, pick him up. And, if you're feeling bold in a standard league, why not take a chance.
No. 23 Kendall Hunter
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While some teams struggle to find an elite starting running back, the San Francisco 49ers struggle to find a stable back up. From Glen Coffee to Brian Westbrook, nobody has been able to help spell the oft-injured Frank Gore.
Enter Kendall Hunter. He dominated while at Oklahoma State, and at 5'7", 200 pounds, he looks like he could be the next bowling ball back (a la Ray Rice, Jones-Drew, etc.). Obviously, Hunter has limited value because he is playing behind Gore, but he still has fantasy value. Frank Gore owners should take a late round flier on Hunter, as should teams in deeper leagues.
No. 22 Greg Little
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The Browns passed on Julio Jones in favor of stockpiling draft picks, one of which they turned into Greg Little. Considering Cleveland's great lack of depth at wide receiver, he could be in line for immediate contribution.
However, keep in mind that Colt McCoy still needs to prove himself as a reliable, productive quarterback. Little is an intriguing sleeper worth a look off of the waiver wire or as a number four wideout in deeper leagues.
No. 21 Evan Royster
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After the draft, Evan Royster told the media that Mike Shanahan privately compared him to Terrell Davis. In other words, you might want to consider drafting Royster this year.
He was an absolute stud at Penn State until his senior season where his numbers were more average. Still, Washington's running back competition is basically wide open, and Royster definitely has the size and pedigree to compete and succeed in the NFL. Keeper league owners should consider drafting Royster, as should owners in deep standard leagues. He could become the biggest fantasy steal of 2011.
No. 20 Shane Vereen
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Patriots' second round pick Shane Vereen has drawn some comparisons to his former Cal teammate Jahvid Best. However, Vereen projects as a superior between-the-tackles runner which bodes well for his fantasy value.
If Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis bolts for free agency, then Vereen would be in line for a significant, perhaps majority workload. Danny Woodhead and fellow rookie Stevan Ridley are the only other backs on the roster, but neither seem as well-equipped to handle a full workload as Vereen. Treat him like a reserve back worth drafting for now, but Bill Belichick's tendency to flip-flop running backs diminishes Vereen's value a bit.
No. 19 Cam Newton
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Perhaps ironically, the first quarterback drafted will probably take the longest to adapt to an NFL offense. But based on Carolina's dismal quarterback crew, Newton might (and probably will) be tossed into the gauntlet in 2011.
The Panthers have a stable running back situation and an aging but still effective wideout in Steve Smith, but overall, Carolina's offense offers little help for Newton. He is absolutely worth a pickup in keeper leagues, but standard league owners should steer clear for now.
No. 18 Jacquizz Rodgers
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In the age of 40 times and bench press statistics, collegiate dominance seems to occasionally fall by the wayside. That is the case for Oregon State Beaver Jacquizz Rodgers who fell all the way to the Falcons in the fifth round despite rushing for 1,184 yards and 16 touchdowns in 2010.
Rodgers' size--5'6", 196 pounds--is obviously a concern, but it shouldn't be. Guys like Maurice Jones-Drew, Ray Rice, Darren Sproles, Mike Tolbert, and others have proven so. Rodgers steps into a great fantasy situation in Atlanta, where he will likely inherit the number two role behind Michael Turner. Rodgers might actually warrant a draft pick in deeper standard leagues, and definitely deserves a flier in keeper leagues.
No. 17 Randall Cobb
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The last thing that the defending champs need is even more explosive talent to bolster an already unstoppable offense--but that didn't stop them from drafting one of the most uniquely talented prospects in the entire 2011 Draft class.
Randall Cobb has experience at quarterback, running back, and wide receiver. He will likely be groomed as Donald Driver's protege, but in the meantime, he could shine in the slot or as a third down back. Because his role (as of now) is unclear, so is his fantasy value; however, take a flier on Cobb if you have the space, especially if your league values return yards.
No. 16 Jake Locker
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Opinions regarding Jake Locker's NFL prospectus vary greatly, but if he can shore up his much criticized accuracy issues, then he could become a great quarterback. If he can make those strides, Locker could become a fantasy football stud as well.
He walks onto a roster boasting Chris Johnson and Kenny Britt (needs to stay out of trouble), and most importantly, Locker can run. Scrambling quarterbacks carry extra value. Still, he is probably not worth drafting in standard leagues, but keeper league owners, if you have an open spot, take a flier on Locker.
No. 15 Delone Carter
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The Colts' rushing offense has ranked in the bottom five in the NFL the past three seasons, hinting that they need to place a greater emphasis on the running game and upgrade the position. With Joseph Addai slated for free agency, Indianapolis picked up Syracuse running back Delone Carter in the fourth round.
Carter will be paired with former first round pick Donald Brown, who has disappointed thus far. If Addai doesn't return then there is a very good chance that Carter becomes a contributor, or even challenges Brown for the starting role. Track the status of Addai this summer. If he leaves, keep close tabs on the battle between Brown and Carter. And if Carter begins to push Brown, draft him, and don't be afraid to reach for him. Every player in Indy's offense is highly valuable.
No. 14 Torrey Smith
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Last season, Ozzie Newsome lured in T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Donte Stallworth and Anquan Boldin under the assumption that both would upgrade a wide receiving corps that seemed to be the Achilles' Heel of a championship caliber team. But when Stallworth failed to effectively provide a vertical threat, the Ravens suffered greatly.
Torrey Smith has the skill-set to cure those woes. He steps into a receiving corps already featuring Boldin, Stallworth, and Derrick Mason, so his role will likely be determined during training camp. Regardless, he should make some impact, so he is worth a pickup in the later rounds of your draft.
No. 13 Christian Ponder
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The Vikings have drawn great criticism for drafting Christian Ponder so high, but he fits their system extraordinarily well. He is almost a sure-fire lock to start in an offense that boasts the league's best running back, a stud wide receiver in Sidney Rice, and two solid tight ends.
Ponder will have the most fantasy value of any rookie quarterback, but he still should not be treated as anything more than a number two or three quarterback. Minnesota will rely heavily on Adrian Peterson to alleviate the pressure on Ponder. In other words, they won't ask him to do a whole lot.
No. 12 Kyle Rudolph
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Rookie tight ends have a tendency to be overrated in fantasy football circles. Players like Jermaine Gresham and Brandon Pettigrew come to mind, but there are exceptions such as Rob Gronkowski.
Kyle Rudolph lands in a shaky situation in Minnesota. He will have to duel with Visanthe Shiancoe for playing time and deal with a rookie quarterback. There's no doubt Rudolph has the potential to become a great player in the league, but for now, view him as a number two tight end.
No. 11 Lance Kendricks
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In retrospect, Sam Bradford did some pretty miraculous work on a rather impotent Rams offense last season. However, Steve Spagnuolo replenished St. Louis' offense with some young talent, namely Wisconsin tight end Lance Kendricks.
Kendricks walks onto a roster with virtually no competition at his position, so you can pencil him in as the starter. Based on his likely role as a starter and Bradford's success with Jermaine Gresham in college, Kendricks might have the biggest season out of any rookie tight end. Treat him as a number two tight end, but if you feel confident, don't be afraid to roll the dice with him as your number one.
No. 10 Roy Helu
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Anytime Mike Shanahan drafts a running back, everybody takes note. The man known for turning castoffs into studs drafted Nebraska's Roy Helu in the fourth round of the draft, leaving the rookie in line for a decent workload.
Clinton Portis is likely on his way out of Washington, leaving Helu, Evan Royster, and Ryan Torain to split the team's carries. Helu is a hard-nosed runner who produced great numbers for the Cornhuskers. Definitely keep him on your radar heading into the season. He is worth a pickup in keeper leagues, but standard league owners should keep him on the top of the watch list.
No. 9 Jonathan Baldwin
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Despite the emergence of Dwayne Bowe, the Chiefs deemed wide receiver a priority during the draft, and pinned Pitt wide receiver Jonathan Baldwin as the solution. Baldwin is an athletic specimen who has measurables comparable to Vincent Jackson and other physically dominant down field threats.
With Bowe demanding secondary's attentions, Baldwin could sneak under the radar and quickly become an impact player for the Chiefs. He should be drafted in all leagues, but only as a bench player for now.
No. 8 Leonard Hankerson
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What else did Leonard Hankerson have to do? He's a solid 6'2", 210 pounds, ran a 4.44 40, and caught 13 touchdowns at Miami last season. Yet, the Redskins grabbed him in the third round. It might be the steal of the draft.
Based on the dearth of talent at wide receiver, Hankerson could easily start right away for the 'Skins. Rumors of John Beck captaining the offense hurts Hanks' stock, but he could be a surprise breakout player. Don't be afraid to draft Hankerson at the tail end of your draft as a reserve wideout. Somebody has to catch passes for Washington this season.
No. 7 Titus Young
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How are opposing secondaries going to stop the Lions? And who thought anybody would ever be posing a question about how to stop the Lions? Calvin Johnson already gave defenses nightmares, and Detroit now has the potential second coming of DeSean Jackson in Titus Young.
Young has lightning speed and should benefit from the attention generally geared towards Megatron. If Matthew Stafford stays healthy, the sky is the limit for Young. View him as a number four wide receiver definitely worth a late round selection.
No. 6 Mark Ingram
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Despite Reggie Bush's preemptive farewell tweet to New Orleans, the team says they plan on keeping him around. If true, the Saints would boast an unbelievable quartet of backs with Bush, Ingram, Pierre Thomas, and Chris Ivory.
Even if Bush leaves, however, Ingram's upside seems limited. He will likely produce decent numbers, but based on the allotment of carries available, the former Heisman Trophy winner will only be able to do so much. However, there is a good chance Ingram would assume goal-line duties on an elite offense, so view him as a low-end number three running back.
No. 5 Ryan Williams
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Arizona's decision to spend a second round pick on Ryan Williams either suggests that the team is worried about Beanie Well's long-term effectiveness, or simply wanted to stockpile talent.
Either way, Williams could be line for a big season in 2011. He has burning speed and great hands, two things which Wells does not. Durability is a big concern for Williams, but he is still worth a look as a number three running back.
No. 4 Julio Jones
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The Atlanta Falcons mortgaged most of their 2011 Draft picks and a 2012 first rounder in order to obtain the services of Julio Jones. Needless to say, the AFC South and all Falcons opponents are now shaking with fear, but don't overvalue Jones as a fantasy commodity.
Roddy White is still Matt Ryan's number one target, Tony Gonzalez is still his favorite red zone target, and the Falcons will still rely heavily on Michael Turner. However, Jones is a specimen who looks like the most NFL-ready wide receiver in this draft class. He might actually benefit from White and Gonzalez, and Matt Ryan does generally does a great job of spreading the ball around. At the most, Jones is a low-end number three receiver with upside. He should be a top target for keeper league owners who need an immediate impact.
No. 3 Daniel Thomas
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The impending departures of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams opens the door for Daniel Thomas to shoulder a significant workload in 2011. The Dolphins will most definitely pursue a free agent to pair with their rookie, but they would not have traded up for a player they did not feel could contribute right away.
If Miami misses out on DeAngelo Williams and pursues a complementary back then Thomas' stock catapults. He is a huge yet finesse runner who rushed for 19 touchdowns last season. He should be treated as a number three back who could easily become a number two.
No. 2 Mikel Leshoure
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Just because the Lions already have rookie sensation Jahvid Best on their roster should not diminish the fantasy value of Mikel Leshoure. In fact, it might increase it.
It's safe to assume the Lions will head into the season with Leshoure as the power and punish component to a two-headed rushing attack. He absolutely dominated at Illinois last season, and will likely inherit goal line duties. Plus, Best has documented durability issues, so Detroit might allot more carries to the workhorse rookie. Leshoure should be viewed as a number three running back or a flex player.
No. 1 A.J. Green
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Unless Carson Palmer surrenders from his retirement threats, either Andy Dalton or Jordan Palmer will be throwing A.J. Green the football. Even if Green is poised to have a Randy Moss-type impact, this quarterback quagmire could seriously diminish his fantasy value.
Green is going to be a star at some point, but unless he has a proven quarterback throwing him the ball in 2011, he might have to wait in the wings for a little while. If Palmer comes back, treat Green like a number three receiver with great upside, but if not, pursue him at your own peril.
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