UFC 129 Preview: Predicting the Outcomes of the Main Card Battles
Tonight, fans will tune into what may go down as the most-watched event in UFC history. At the Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canadian hero and current UFC Welterweight Champion Georges "Rush" St. Pierre will attempt to defend his belt for the sixth time. His opponent is former Strikeforce Middleweight Champion Jake Shields, who won the opportunity to fight St. Pierre after defeating Martin Kampmann by unanimous decision at UFC 121.
Yet, despite all of the hype surrounding this fight, the main card at UFC 129 also features some other great matchups. Jose Aldo will defend his WEC (now UFC) Featherweight Championship against Mark Hominick. In a fight that fans have been desperate to wait happen, UFC Hall of Famer Randy "The Natural" Couture will have his swan song in three rounds with Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida.
All in all, it's a great main card with fights so hard to predict. Yet, I'm about to attempt to do just that. Here is UFC 129's main card, complete with predictions for each match.
Ben Henderson vs. Mark Bocek
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Since the merger of the UFC and World Extreme Cagefighting (WEC), fans have been privileged to watch a new crop of fighters compete at the highest level, from Miguel Torres to Urijah Faber. At UFC 129, they will get to watch former WEC Lightweight Champion Ben Henderson take on Mark Bocek.
Both men are equal in height and weight, both standing 5'9" and weighing 155 pounds. Yet, Bocek has a 75 inch reach compared to Henderson's reach of 70 inches. This could prove to be trouble for Henderson if he tries to keep the fight standing.
Yet, it's doubtful that will happen as both men are Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioners. Bocek has the more advanced black belt in comparison to Henderson's brown belt, but it's no secret that this fight is going to be on the ground. Whoever controls the ground game will win the fight.
Regarding an actual prediction, I have to give it to Henderson. He's coming off of a controversial loss to Anthony Pettis back in December, and you know he wants to make his UFC debut with a bang.
Prediction: Henderson by Unanimous Decison
Jason Brilz vs. Vladimir Matyushenko
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In this light heavyweight matchup, we have two interesting fighters. Vladimir "The Janitor" Matyushenko will look to extend his winning streak to two against wrestler Jason Brilz.
I'm just going to say this right now: Matyushenko will end this fight in the first round. While he does have a strong Greco-Roman wrestling background, he can also box. Simply put, this man is a brawler.
That being said, some may conclude that Brilz will win this fight as long as he can take it to the ground. This is not the case. While Matyushenko last fought at UFC 122 back in November, Brilz has not fought since losing to Antonio Rogerio Nogueira at UFC 114. That was nearly a year ago and ring rust will hurt him.
Even if he does take it to the ground, I expect Brilz to get tired quickly and then Matyushenko will do all of the work from there.
Prediction: Matyushenko by KO in Round 1
Randy Couture vs. Lyoto Machida
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Given how he is 47 years old and already a UFC Hall of Famer with a promising acting career ahead of him, former UFC Light Heavyweight and Heavyweight Champion Randy "The Natural" Couture has already said that his match at UFC 129 will be his last one, regardless of result. He has a tough opponent in former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida, who is looking to save his UFC career and avoid losing three fights in a row.
As much as I love Couture, I can't help but think that he's going to be made to look foolish in this fight. He is primarily a wrestler, and a great one, but he just no longer has the speed to keep up with Machida and his black belts in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Shotokan Karate.
Long story short, I'm going to give this fight to Machida, and handily. He'll probably let Couture have his fun in Round 1, then look to close it out violently in Round 2.
Prediction: Machida by TKO in Round 2
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Jose Aldo vs. Mark Hominick
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Here we are at, as the veteran voice of the octagon Bruce Buffer would say, THE CO-MAIN EVENT...OF THE EVENINNNNNNNNGGGGGGGG!!!
Before GSP and Shields take the stage for the welterweight belt, Jose Aldo will defend his UFC Featherweight Championship belt against Canadian Mark Hominick. Overall, despite how great a fighter Aldo is, this is my pick for Fight of the Night.
Both fighters are essentially brawlers, with Hominick being a Muay Thai kickboxer and Aldo getting 12 of his 18 wins by KO or TKO. Yet, the champion has one advantage that will win him the battle. Aldo has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu that if he can take the fight to the ground, will help him immensely.
That all being said, despite Hominick having the support of his people in the crowd, I'm picking Aldo to win this fight in the later rounds.
Prediction: Aldo by TKO in Round 4
Georges St. Pierre vs. Jake Shields
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Ladies and gentlemen...IT'S...TIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIME...FOR THE MAIN EVENT, OF THE EVENINNNNNNNGGGGGGGGGGG!!!
OK...now that I've done yet another bad impression of Bruce Buffer, let's go on to the prediction for this fight.
I've got to say, I'm very excited for this one. You have one of the best fighters in the UFC, Georges St. Pierre, stepping into the octagon with the first true contender he's faced since fighting BJ Penn at UFC 94.
GSP's opponent is Jake Shields (pictured at left), the former Strikeforce Middleweight Champion. Both fighters are extremely similar, each having a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and amazing ground game. Shields has won most of his fights by either submission or decision, so you know his cardio is great.
He is two inches taller than his opponent, yet his reach is 4 inches shorter. On top of that, as fans saw in GSP's fight with Josh Koscheck, the champ is just as deadly on his feet as he is on the ground.
That being said, GSP's best hope for this fight is to keep it standing. Yes, he is more experienced than Shields on this level, but it would be wise not to risk taking it to the ground. If he does, the best he can hope for is that his cardio is better than that of Shields.
Still, GSP is still GSP. He's one of the greatest fighters in the world for a reason, so there's no denying that he trained hard for this fight and is beyond prepared.
Prediction: St. Pierre by Unanimous Decision
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