NBA Playoffs: Forecasting the NBA Conference Semifinals
With the Spurs recently eliminated by the Rudy Gay-less Grizzlies, the first heavyweight of the NBA playoffs has been knocked out, signaling, perhaps, the end of an era. However, even with the one seed in the West watching from home, there is still a lot of great basketball to be played, as six teams seem to be serious contenders for the 2011 title.
Starting with the East and moving to the West, here's a rundown on all of the Conference Semis, complete with predictions for this round.
Western Semis: Memphis vs. Oklahoma City
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I know I'll probably get some comments for saying this, but with Rudy Gay, this would be a different series. Yes, Memphis took out San Antonio in just six games, but San Antonio had been fading hard towards the end of the year, and the high level of enthusiasm Memphis played with was just too much for the tired legs of the Spurs. The Grizzlies won't get that same advantage against Oklahoma City, which is playing its best basketball of the year.
Oklahoma City, while losing the season series to Memphis 3-1, has added a big man in Kendrick Perkins who has surely made this Thunder a tougher, more experienced team that now has a frontcourt able to contend with the elite teams of the league. They made easy work of Denver, slowing down the number one offense in the league, while only failing to reach triple digits once.
Memphis hopes to continue its success in Oklahoma City, under the leadership of Zach Randolph. However, an improving yet inconsistent Mike Conley will have to really step up against the Thunder as not only a facilitator, but a scorer as well. The Grizzlies are deep, boasting a bench of Shane Battier, Greivis Vasquez, OJ Mayo, and Darrell Arthur, and to beat Oklahoma City, the bench will have to come in and put some points up on the Thunder.
Memphis X-Factor: Mike Conley. Z-Bo and Marc Gasol will be fine, and Tony Allen should have a nice series, but for Memphis to win, Conley must be at the top of his game. He has taken a large step forward this year, but needs to crank it up another notch to take down Oklahoma City.
Oklahoma City X-Factor: Serge Ibaka. I know many people have James Harden here, but Oklahoma City will take a lot of pressure off of the three-point shooters if Serge Ibaka can slow down Zach Randolph and continue to dominate on the boards.
Matchup to watch: Ibaka and Perkins vs. Randolph and Gasol. These two great frontcourts play different styles, and the style that prevails will gain a sizable advantage on the other team. Ibaka and Perkins need to employ their defense first mentality and beat the Grizzlies physically down underneath the hoop. Memphis will want to draw Ibaka and Perkins out and take some jump shots with their big men, opening up lanes to drive to the hoop.
Verdict: Oklahoma City in 6
Western Semis: Dallas vs. Los Angeles
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This is shaping up to be an excellent series. After an early scare by New Orleans, Los Angeles woke up and extinguished the hopes Chris Paul and company had of an upset quite handily. For Dallas, Dirk Nowitzki played Superman, averaging 27.3 points in the series against Portland, knocking the Trail Blazers out in six games also.
The Lakers will be glad they don't have to play Chris Paul again, because while Jason Kidd is an excellent facilitator, he doesn't bring to the table the speed, athleticism, jump shot, court vision, and passing ability that Chris Paul owns. With Andrew Bynum healthy and playing well, Los Angeles boasts an excellent frontcourt, and the Mavericks won't be able to double up on Pau Gasol without the serious consequences that they risk leaving Gasol or Kobe unguarded.
Dallas needs Tyson Chandler to grab more than his fair share of rebounds from Gasol and Bynum, as well as someone to step up offensively other than Nowitzki and Jason Terry. Be it a healthy Rodrigue Beaubois, a healthy Caron Butler, or simply Shawn Marion, the Mavs need some help on offense to take down the Lakers.
Dallas X-Factor: Beaubois/Butler. The return of and good play from one of these two would be huge for Dallas, which will want to spread things out and make jump shots.
Los Angeles X-Factor: Andrew Bynum. As long as Bynum is playing well, Gasol and Kobe are freed to do their thing, and the Lakers offense clicks.
Matchup to Watch: Dirk Nowitzki vs. Pau Gasol. Excellent matchup between two superstars with contrasting styles.
Verdict: Either Butler or Beaubois comes back and makes things interesting, but the Lakers win in seven.
Eastern Semis: Atlanta vs. Chicago
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Dwight Howard walked all over Atlanta, but that didn't seem to matter, as Atlanta took care of Orlando in six. Perhaps the more impressive thing was that Atlanta had someone else stepping up every game offensively, be it Jamal Crawford, Joe Johnson, or Josh Smith. Chicago made easy work of Indiana, eliminating the Pacers in five, albeit with an injury scare to Derrick Rose. However, Rose seems to be fine, and that will be huge against Atlanta.
With Kirk Hinrich straining his hamstring, Jeff Teague becomes the starting point guard for Atlanta until Hinrich is healthy. Teague is talented but inexperienced, and not much of an offensive threat at this point, which means the shots will go to Johnson, Crawford, Smith, and Horford. If Teague can show he's worthy of being an NBA starting point guard, then the Hawks have a shot.
Chicago though, is cruising, and a determined Derrick Rose could prove to be too much to handle for Atlanta, with Luol Deng keeping Josh Smith busy. With the way Howard dominated the Atlanta frontcourt, Chicago needs to use this to its advantage, and hope that Carlos Boozer can return to the All-Star form he was lacking against Indiana.
Atlanta X-Factor: Al Horford. He didn't play particularly well against Orlando, but he should have an easy time with the offensive-oriented Carlos Boozer. How well he plays against Chicago will directly influence Atlanta's chances of advancing.
Chicago X-Factor: Carlos Boozer. If he can exploit the Atlanta frontcourt half as much as Dwight Howard did, Chicago could wrap it up in five.
Matchup to watch: Luol Deng versus Josh Smith. These defensive superstars will want to take each other out of the game offensively, which both will want to supply their team with. However, Atlanta needs Josh Smith's offense more than Chicago needs Deng's, so this matchup is a very significant one indeed for Atlanta.
Verdict: Despite Jamal Crawford and Joe Johnson each playing hero in a couple games, Chicago advances in six.
Eastern Semis: Miami vs. Boston
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This is easily the most interesting of the four Conference Semis. Both teams are loaded with superstars, have shallow benches, and have taken care of their first round opponent with relative ease. Not to mention the controversial figures on each team, and the fact that there are many people that would like to see each team lose. For the most part, there is no middle ground, you're either pulling for the Heat, or you're pulling for the Celtics. Boston won the season series, but Miami blew Boston out in their latest meeting. Whether this can be attributed to the Heat finally playing cohesively, or the result of late-season apathy of the Celtics, this is a huge confidence booster for Miami, and will undoubtedly influence this series.
Boston's strength lies in its defense. Garnett, Pierce, and Rondo are all great defenders, and will wreak havoc on the Miami offense. If it can take away the Heat's ability to drive and force Miami to win the series shooting three-pointers, Boston might as well be making a date with Chicago in the Conference Finals.
Miami now seems to be playing the way we all thought they would when James and Bosh teamed up with Wade, and that is a scary thought. Wade and James are fantastic, but Bosh will be huge against Boston. If Bosh can hold his own against Garnett, Miami stands a very good chance of advancing. The biggest key though, is Miami's ability to push the tempo. Boston will want to play a half-court offense, with old legs like Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Jermaine O'Neal, and Ray Allen. If Miami can tire Boston out on fast breaks led by James and Wade, they gain a considerable advantage. Also watch for the returns of Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller. Haslem could very well be the dagger that goes through the heart of Boston.
Boston X-Factor: Rajon Rondo. As Rondo goes, so does Boston. It's that simple.
Miami X-Factor: Mario Chalmers/Mike Bibby. The point guard position is where Boston's biggest advantage on Miami is, and if Bibby can take some big shots, or Chalmers proves that he is capable after all of facilitating this offense after the breakthrough game he had against Philadelphia, Miami becomes the most dangerous team in the playoffs.
Matchup to watch: Zydrunas Ilgauskas vs. Jermaine O'Neal. Just kidding. Paul Pierce vs. LeBron James. They always seem to take each other out of the game offensively. The winner of this matchup will say a lot about which way the series goes.
Verdict: Miami pushes the tempo, Chalmers has a few good games, and Haslem returns late in the series to push Miami over the edge. This will be a fantastic series though, and could go either way. Give me Miami in seven.
