NBA Playoffs 2011: Oklahoma City Thunder Is Still the Favorite vs. Memphis
The Oklahoma City Thunder only went 1-3 against the Memphis Grizzlies during the regular season which, combined with the Grizzlies’ impressive first-round upset of the Spurs, has prompted many to assert that the Thunder would have rather played San Antonio and that Memphis may actually be the favorite against the Thunder. This slideshow will show you why they are wrong.
Bench Matchup
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So far in the postseason, the Thunder bench has averaged 25.4 points per game, while the Memphis bench has averaged 28.8. This is largely due to the fact that the Grizzlies have divided up their offensive talent between their bench and starters, so as to give their team more balance.
While this strategy could hurt the Thunder, it could also be a major advantage. It all depends on how the second team performs. The Thunder starters will score, so it will be up to the bench players to prove their worth. Even so, one thing we’ve learned in these playoffs is that stars win games and that includes secondary stars such as James Harden. As the star of the second team, Harden has averaged 10.4 points per game so far in the postseason; a far cry beneath his regular season average. O.J. Mayo would be considered the Memphis equivalent to Harden and is averaging just 9.6 points per game, just a few points less than his regular season average.
If Harden can go back to his regular season scoring habits, the Thunder will win this series.
Frontcourt Matchup
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A lot of attention has been paid to Zach Randolph this postseason. He got a hefty contract extension and made big shots in the clutch to help close out the Spurs. The consensus would be that a matchup between him and Serge Ibaka would lean heavily in Randolph’s favor, but further analysis would show something a bit different.
Randolph has been outstanding this postseason. However, he has been so against Matt Bonner (a 31-year-old perimeter forward), Antonio McDyess (a 36-year-old forward), and Tim Duncan (a 35-year-old forward). Randolph has yet to face the likes of Serge Ibaka, a 21-year-old, 6'10" power forward, who is becoming the best shot blocker in the league. Randolph is shorter, heavier, slower, and older (30 in July) than Ibaka, who is among the top five in the NBA athletically and can literally jump twice as high as Randolph. In this series, Randolph will be the old man down low.
As for the other big matchup inside, Kendrick Perkins is much stronger than Marc Gasol and has already proven that he can shut down an older, more talented Gasol in L.A.
If the Thunder big men monopolize on their advantages, the Thunder will win this series.
Point Guard Matchup
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Mike Conley has played a great postseason so far, scoring 15.4 points per game and dishing out 6.8 assists per game. However, it will be difficult for him to do that in the second round if he has to guard Russell Westbrook because Westbrook is so explosive and athletic on the offensive end that he literally wears out the players guarding him.
Conley has done a better job at dishing assists this postseason, but that’s because he is not a great scorer like Westbrook and must pass in order for his team to be at their best. Westbrook has proven he can pass with the best of them by averaging over eight assists per game in the regular season. But just as all superstars do when the playoff game lights come on, Westbrook has stepped up his aggressiveness on the offensive end.
If Westbrook plays to his strengths of using his explosiveness to get to the rim, the Thunder will win this series.
Small Forward Matchup
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Tony Allen has been starting for Memphis at small forward, mainly because of his prowess as one of the best one-on-one defenders in the NBA. He is backed up by Shane Battier, a savvy veteran who is known for his defense. But neither of these guys is very good on the offensive end of the floor, whereas the guy they’ll be guarding was the best this season at that end.
Kevin Durant will have a considerable challenge scoring on Allen or Battier, but he will be helped by the fact that neither requires much defense to stop their offense. This will allow Durant to focus solely on scoring and, when he is able to do so, Durant is literally unstoppable.
If Kevin Durant can continue to dominate at the offensive end of the floor, the Thunder will win this series.
Home Court Advantage
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This is the biggest reason of them all. Only two teams with home court advantage lost in the opening round. Both San Antonio and Orlando were doomed by their dependence on the three-point shot and their inability to match the energy and enthusiasm of the teams they were playing against. That will not be a problem for the Thunder, who are not generally a volume three-point shooting team. They are the only team in these playoffs who can legitimately claim to be younger and more energetic than Memphis.
Home court advantage is huge. Memphis has proven they can win on the road, but winning a playoff game in Loud City is something that no player is ever truly prepared for. In Games 1 and 5, the Thunder got down by double digits at certain points, only to make triumphant home court comebacks each time against a team far more offensively potent and balanced than Memphis.
If the Thunder continue to play with supreme confidence and energy at home, they will win this series.
Prediction
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The Thunder won’t do all of these things all the time, but they will do most of them most of the time. Both teams will have a very tough time winning on the road and each game will be a five-point game or less.
Ultimately, Kevin Durant lifts the Thunder onto his shoulders and continues his amazing playoff run. The Thunder win the series in seven.
