
NHL 2011 Playoffs: Vancouver Canucks vs Nashville Predators Series Preview
After an emotional overtime win in Game 7 of their first round series against the Chicago Blackhawks, the Vancouver Canucks now have to ready themselves for the second round against the Nashville Predators.
The No. 5 seed Predators beat the Anaheim Ducks in a tough six game series, while the top seeded Canucks had a more roller coaster series against Chicago, winning the first three, losing the next three, and then surviving a last minute game-tying goal by Jonathan Toews to force overtime.
But now that is all in the past, as both teams start fresh.
The Canucks are expecting a low scoring, physical series.
""They've got a solid team," Henrik Sedin told NHL.com after Vancouver's 2-1 overtime win Tuesday. "We watched a lot of their games against Anaheim and they've got three or four lines that play well. They backcheck. They forecheck. They keep it tight. It's going to be low scoring games."
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The Predators will open off the series on the road, most likely on Friday, although the NHL hasn't formally announced the schedule yet.
Regular Season Series
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Take it for what you will, but here are some key stats from the regular season series between the Canucks and Predators. The season series was tied with two regulation wins for each team.
Jan 26, 2011 in Vancouver: 2-1 Canucks (fourth game of a home stand for the Canucks)
Feb 17, 2011 in Nashville: 3-1 Predators (third game in four nights on the road for the Canucks)
March 3, 2011 in Vancouver: 3-0 Nashville (Middle of a home stand for the Canucks)
March 29, 2011 in Nashville: 3-1 Canucks (fourth game of a road trip)
Pekka Rinne and Roberto Luongo were in net for all four games.
Top Scorers:
Daniel Sedin: 1 G 3 A (4 pts)
Martin Erat: 1 G 3 A (4 pts)
Alex Burrows: 3 G (3 pts)
Henrik Sedin: 3 A (3 pts)
Shea Weber: 1 G 1 A (2 pts)
David Legwand: 1G 1 A (2 pts)
Patric Hornqvist: 1G 1 A (2 pts)
Playoff Scoring
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Now we get to the stats that actually matter.
The regular season only matters in terms of home ice advantage, otherwise all that matters is how you are playing lately.
Daniel Sedin (104 pts) might have tripled Mike Fisher (36 pts) in regular season scoring, but they are neck and neck in playoff scoring.
Keep in mind the stats on the following slides are a bit skewed by Vancouver playing seven games to Nashville's six games.
Vancouver's Top Playoff Scorers:
Daniel Sedin: (5 goals, 2 assists) 7 points
Alex Burrows: (3 goals, 3 assists) 6 points
Henrik Sedin: (5 assists) 5 points
The Canucks have nine different goal scorers, including four players with game-winning goals.
Nashville's Top Playoff Scorers:
Mike Fisher: (3 goals, 3 assists) 6 points
Shea Weber: (3 goals, 2 assists) 5 points
Joel Ward: (3 goals, 2 assists) 5 points
The Predators have 12 different goal scorers, including four players with game-winning goals.
Playoff Toughness
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Who would have guessed that the Canucks would be the most physical team in the playoffs, leading the NHL in both hits and takeaways?
The Canucks lead the NHL by a wide margin in playoff hits with 281, while the Predators are ranked 13th amongst playoff teams with 144 hits. I think the Chicago Blackhawks can attest that the constant barrage of hits played a factor in their first round series with the Canucks.
The constant hitting and relentless forechecking also propelled Vancouver to second place amongst playoff teams for takeaways with 64. Nashville is ranked fifth with 42 takeaways in the playoffs to date.
Alex Burrows, Mason Raymond and Henrik Sedin are tied for the lead on the Canucks with six takeaways each in the first round. Matt Halischuk leads the Predators with five takeaways.
Vancouver's Top Playoff Hitters:
Maxim Lapierre (33 hits)
Ryan Kesler (26 points)
Alex Edler (23 hits)
Nashville's Top Playoff Hitters:
Shane O'Brien (27 hits)
Jordan Tootoo (15 hits)
Ryan Suter (14 hits)
Playoff Goaltending
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Pekka Rinne: 3.29 GAA, 0.876 Save Percentage
Roberto Luongo: 2.97 GAA, 0.903 Save Percentage
Both are Vezina Trophy candidates, but neither has great stats in the first round.
Luongo looks to have the edge, especially as he seems to have regained his form after the debacles that were Games 4 and 5 against the Hawks.
Rinne was pretty consistent in his goals against, where as Luongo was wildly inconsistent in that regard, pitching a shutout in Game 1, but giving up five-plus goals in Games 4 and 5.
I'd give the edge to the Canucks in net, but it isn't by a wide margin.
Playoff Power Play
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Power Play
Canucks: 22.2 percent (4 goals in 18 opportunities)
Predators: 22.2 percent (6 goals on 27 opportunities)
Well, this is pretty clearly a tie, no clear cut advantage to either team. Both teams also gave up a single short handed goal in the first round.
Playoff Penalty Kill
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Penalty Kill
Canucks: 79.3 percent (Short handed 29 times, allowed 6 goals)
Predators: 63.6 percent (Short handed 22 times, gave up 8 goals)
This is an advantage to the Canucks. Nashville's penalty kill as uncharacteristically weak in the first round, and the Canucks have a top power play which hopefully can take advantage of it.
Of note is that the Canucks killed off almost four minutes of five-on-three time without giving up a goal in the first round.
Intangibles
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The Predators might be from the Central Division, but they aren't the Hawks.
The Predators traditionally play a good game against the Canucks, but they aren't in the heads of the Canucks' star players like the Hawks were.
The Preds don't have any players that have sent Roberto Luongo to the bench in tears like Patrick Kane, or physical players that have owned the Canucks like Byfuglien.
And perhaps more importantly, the Predators don't have Dave Bolland. Bolland came back into the series in Game 4, and then proceeded to single handedly neutralize both Sedins, at least at even strength.
The Blackhawks defeated the Canucks soundly in the second round of the 2009 and 2010 playoffs, and both series ended with a blowout. This win was cathartic for the Canucks, and they can ride that momentum into the series against the Predators.
The Predators finally made it out of the first round for the first time in franchise history, but the series against the Ducks exposed some weaknesses, as the Preds gave up an uncharacteristic amount of goals.
This is also uncharted territory for the Predators, as they don't have any players with a Stanley Cup ring, and only Mike Fisher has been to a cup final. For most of their players, this is the first time they have played into the end of April.
The Canucks have more playoff experience, and also got a first hand look from Toews and company about how champions play. Hopefully they learn from that example, and don't let the Predators up off the mat if they lead in the series.
Injuries
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There are a few significant injuries on both sides.
Canucks:
Sami Salo: Undisclosed injury, but he left early in Game 6 and did not dress in Game 7. Expect him to miss a few games until fully healthy, as the Canucks have a full bench of NHL-caliber defencemen.
Manny Malhotra: Out for the season with an eye injury
Henrik Sedin: This isn't a reported injury, but it is rumored that Henrik is suffering some sort of left arm or hand injury after taking repeated slashes from the Blackhawks. Not enough to keep him out of games, but enough that he felt he needed to pass off on an open net in Game 7 rather than risk a shot.
Predators:
Matthew Lombardi: Out for the season with a concussion.
Cal O'Reilly: Out indefinitely with a broken right fibula.
Francis Bouillon: Out indefinitely with a concussion.
Marcel Goc: Shoulder injury, questionable for Game 1.
Martin Erat: Upper body injury, questionable for Game 1.
*Thanks to TSN for their injury reports.
Storylines
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Here are a few storylines to consider heading into Game 1:
Dan Hamhuis and Shane O'Brien
The two defenceman switched teams last summer, and now are facing off against their old teams. Hamhuis left Nashville as a free agent to come home to Vancouver, but O'Brien was traded after some issues with management and then losing his starting spot in training camp.
O'Brien is a volatile guy, and took seven minor penalties against the Ducks in the first round. He will have to keep his emotions in check when playing against his old teammates, or the Canucks will make him pay on the scoreboard.
Shane O'Brien vs the Roxy
Home ice advantage could help the Canucks here, as O'Brien is one of the Predators most physical D-men… and also has a weakness for the nightlife on Granville street, one which saw him benched and eventually traded out of Vancouver. If O'Brien falls back into old habits and visits his favorite night spots, that doesn't bode well for his energy level on the ice.
The Predators and Canucks hate each other. Not to the level of the Canucks and Blackhawks, but these two teams don't like each other, and the games are always chippy and physical. More specifically, the Predators hate Burrows after some big hits he dished out, and other big hits he took that the Predators feel he embellished.
Can Ryan Kesler score a goal now?
After scoring 41 goals, Ryan Kesler focused on shutting down Conn Smythe winner Jonathan Toews, and held him goalless until the dying minutes of Game 7. Pretty impressive, until you consider that Toews also neutralized Kesler, who didn't score a goal himself.
With the improved play of Lapierre centering the third line, and a lack of any big name stars to shut down on the Predators, expect Kesler to break out offensively in this series, especially if Burrows continues to play on his wing.
The Sedins own the Predators.
Well, that might be a bit of hyperbole, but the Sedins+Burrows line did put up four goals and 10 points in the regular season against Nashville, and was the best line on either team. And more importantly, the Predators don't have Dave Bolland, the only centre in the game who can single-handedly shutdown a pair of Art Ross winners.
Expect the twins to continue picking up points against Nashville, regardless of who plays on their right wing.
Prediction
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Canucks in six.
The have home ice advantage, a slight advantage on defence and in goal, and by far the better forwards. They are the more physical team and are better on special teams. And they are riding the momentum of finally slaying the Blackhawks.
The Predators don't go quietly, but they do go down.
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