Green Bay Packers 2011 Schedule: Can Aaron Rodgers and Co. Go 16-0?
Ladies and gentlemen, there are you defending Super Bowl Champions, the Green Bay Packers. They overcame adversity and injuries to win Super Bowl XLV. It was a beautiful, beautiful moment for Packer fans around the nation.
The Packers enter the 2011-2012 season as a favorite to repeat. Therefore, the question needs to be asked: Can the Green Bay Packers go 16-0 and complete a perfect season?
They won it all last year with 13 players on Injured Reserve. Those 13 players don't include Charles Woodson or Donald Driver who both got injured in the Super Bowl. With a healthy roster anything is possible.
The 2011-2012 schedule was just released and here is a look at what the Packers must do in all 16 games to join the 1972 Miami Dolphins and the 2007 New England Patriots as the only teams to have undefeated regular seasons.
Week 1: New Orleans at Green Bay (Thusday)
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The crowd at Lambeau Field is going to be electric on Thursday night. It will be quite the sight to see and I can't even imagine being there.
Keys to victory: Pass defense, Pressure on Drew Brees
This game could very well turn into a high-scoring event. Both teams should be healthy and both teams boast two of the best passing games in the NFL. That means Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams and the rest of the Packers secondary are going to have to play huge. Watch for Sam Shields to be targeted often by Drew Brees.
The Packers ability to get pressure on Drew Brees is going to be huge. If Clay Matthews, B.J. Raji, and Cullen Jenkins can get constant pressure on Brees, the game will be the Packers' to lose. Look for the Packers pass rush to cause Brees to hurry some throws and for Woodson and Collins to make some big plays.
Probability of a win: 90 percent
I know that might seem high against a quality team like New Orleans, but the Packers are going to be pumped up for this game. Look for them to take an early lead and sack Brees at least four times.
Week 2: Green Bay at Carolina
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Keys to victory: Pressure on Carolina's rookie quarterback, Stopping the run
Carolina will almost certainly be starting either Blaine Gabbert or Cam Newton for this game. The Packers' dominant pass rush should be able to fluster either player. Look for Dom Capers to get creative with blitz packages and take advantage of Carolina's inexperience.
With a rookie quarterback at the helm, look for Carolina to give the Packers a heavy dose of the run. A.J. Hawk and Desmond Bishop (or Nick Barnett) will have to make plays at the line of scrimmage. If the Panthers running backs can get room to run, Green Bay could be in trouble.
Probability of a win: 100 percent
The Packers should flex their defensive muscles in this game and hold Carolina to under 10 points.
Week 3: Green Bay at Chicago
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Keys to victory: Controlling time of possession, Scoring points
This game is going to be a grudge match. Chicago is certainly going to be looking for revenge and the crowd at Soldier Field should be rather rowdy. The key for the Packers is going to be keeping the ball in the offense's hands and keeping the crowd out of the game. This means that Ryan Grant, James Starks, John Kuhn and Brandon Jackson will need to run effectively. Using a committee backfield should help keep players fresh and keep the chains moving on offense.
In Week 17 last year, the score of this exact game was 10-3 and was ugly. In the Conference Championship game, the score was 21-14 and even uglier. The Packers offense is going to need to put up points in order to beat their rivals.
Probability of a win: 40 percent
The Packers have been historically bad at Soldier Field. The Bears are going to be looking for revenge. If the Packers can score and control the clock, the drive for a perfect season should stay alive.
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Week 4: Denver at Green Bay
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Keys to victory: Stopping Tim Tebow, Donald Driver
Tim Tebow will be the likely starter in Denver. We all know he isn't the best passer, but he can make plays and knows how to win. Stopping Tebow once he gets out of the pocket is going to be necessary for the Packers to win. The Packers will need to make Tebow win the game with his arm, which will be hard for Tebow to do.
Champ Bailey is still one of the better cornerbacks in the league. He will most likely be matched up against Greg Jennings for the majority of the game. That means Donald Driver will have to be Rodgers key target. He will need to have a big game and make plays after the catch.
Probability of a win: 75 percent
The Packers are always tough at home. They should be able to keep Tebow in check and Tebow won't beat the Packers with his arm.
Week 5: Green Bay at Atlanta
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Keys to victory: Rodgers mobility, Smart play
If Aaron Rodgers hadn't been able to elude the rush against Atlanta in the playoffs, the Packers probably would have lost that game. There might not be a better quarterback at making defensive players miss than Rodgers. He has nimble feet and will have to use those to escape from the like of John Abraham. Rodgers is also extremely accurate on the run.
Last year's loss to Atlanta in the Georgia Dome was mainly due to two key penalties. Both penalties put gave the Falcons great field position at the end of the first and second half. Those penalties ultimately led to the Packers' defeat. The Packers have been known to rack up penalties, but they will need to stay focused on playing smart to win.
Probability of a win: 50 percent
This game is a complete toss-up. Whoever has the ball last will probably be the winner. Hopefully, Aaron Rodgers has the ball and not Matt Ryan.
Week 6: St. Louis at Green Bay
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Keys to victory: Taking care of business
This game is the Packers' to lose. The Rams had an impressive season with rookie quarterback Sam Bradford. However, most people feel the Rams overachieved. I see the Rams taking a step back this year and the Packers taking full advantage of that step. The game is at home and the Packers shouldn't loose this one.
Probability of a win: 99 percent
I won't go with 100 percent because Sam Bradford is likely to improve and keep his teams in most games. With that said, the Packers will still win this game.
Week 7: Green Bay at Minnesota
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Keys to victory: Stopping Adrian Peterson
This is going to be the key to victory for every team that Minnesota plays. Adrian Peterson is an absolute beast. It's true that you can't really stop Adrian Peterson, you can only wish to contain him. Peterson will likely have his best statistical season as a professional due to the fact that the Vikings won't have a quarterback to rely on. A.J. Hawk will be key and the whole Packer defense will have to make sound tackles against Peterson.
Probability of a win: 75 percent
The Packers struggle at the Metrodome, but if they can keep Peterson to under 200 yards and three touchdowns, they should be just fine.
Week 8: Bye Week
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For those of you who aren't Packers fans, on our bye week, we like to think of Clay Matthews and his awesome hair.
Week 9: Green Bay at San Diego
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Keys to victory: Slow down Antonio Gates, Special Teams
Charles Woodson is going to have to play his best game of the season against San Diego. Philip Rivers is one of the better quarterbacks in the league. Rivers' main target is Antonio Gates, who is nearly unstoppable. Woodson will most likely get the assignment on Gates. He will need to be physical and keep Gates in check.
San Diego was absolutely horrible on special teams last year. The Packers certainly don't excel at special teams, but getting big kick and punt returns could be a game changer. Look for Jordy Nelson or a rookie speedster to give the Packers good field position all game long.
Probability of a win: 60 percent
The Chargers offense will be tough to slow down, but the Packers offense should be clicking on all cylinders by Week 9. This game will come down to defense, and the Packers clearly have the edge there.
Week 10: Minnesota at Green Bay (Monday)
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Keys to victory: Stopping Adrian Peterson again
Seriously, this will be every team's game plan when they play Minnesota. The Packers will put eight men in the box all game long and make the Vikings beat them through the air.
Probability of a win: 85 percent
At home, on Monday Night Football...the Packers won't lose.
Week 11: Tampa Bay at Green Bay
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Keys to victory: Make Josh Freeman make mistakes, Run the ball
Josh Freeman had a breakout season last year and will certainly be improved this year. Freeman only threw six interceptions last year, so it isn't common for him to make mistakes. Tramon Williams, Charles Woodson and Nick Collins will need to make plays in the secondary to rattle Freeman's confidence. Dom Capers will need to be creative with his coverage packages to keep Freeman from getting comfortable.
Tampa Bay was one of the worst defenses against the run last year. The Packers certainly struggled running the ball, but the return of Ryan Grant should help get them back on track. Expect Grant and Starks to each get 20 carries during the game.
Probability of a win: 51 percent
This game could decide who is the front runner for home-field advantage. Tampa Bay missed the playoffs last year because of the Packers, so look for them to come out looking for revenge. This might be the toughest game all year for the Packers.
Week 12: Green Bay at Detroit (Thanksgiving Day)
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Keys to victory: Contain Ndamukong Suh, Throw the ball
Ndamukong Suh had a very impressive rookie season. He proved to be a dominating force and is only going to get better. Scott Wells is going to have be up to the challenge against Detroit on Thanksgiving Day. Look for the Packers to constantly double team Suh. This could allow for Detroit's linebackers to have some open shots against Rodgers. If the Packers can't slow down Suh, look for Rodgers to spend a good amount of time on his back.
Everyone knows that the Packers boast one of the best passing games in the NFL. They will need to spread the ball around against Detroit's weak secondary. Look for Jordy Nelson and James Jones to have big games. If Rodgers can constantly find the open man, this could be a blowout.
Probability of a win: 65 percent
I have a feeling the Lions will surprise some people this year. They might not make the playoffs, but they certainly won't lose 45-24 like last year.
Week 13: Green Bay at New York Giants
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Keys to victory: Let Rodgers throw, Stop the run
This is a re-match from last year, which the Packers won 45-17. Aaron Rodgers threw for over 400 yards in that game. He also threw four touchdowns and zero interceptions. It was one of his better games during the season. The Packers will try to exploit New York's secondary early and often in this game. If Rodgers can put up another huge game on the Giants, watch out for another blowout.
The Giants have leaned heavily on the run for the past few seasons. Ahmad Bradshaw had a very good season last year. He looks to be the feature back again in New York. Bradshaw has the ability to put a hurt on defenses, so Green Bay will have to keep him in check.
Probability of a win: 55 percent
The Giants were another team that missed out on the playoffs because of the Packers. They will have the home crowd behind them to try to get payback for last year's embarrassing loss.
Week 14: Oakland at Green Bay
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Keys to victory: Slow down Darren McFadden, Successful passing game
Darren McFadden had a fantastic season for a surprising Raiders team. He showed that he can be the feature back in Oakland for a long time. He displayed great speed and play making ability. He also proved to be a valuable asset in the passing game. He had over 1,600 yards of total offense and 10 touchdowns. Green Bay's linebackers will need to make plays in the open field against McFadden.
The Raiders had the second stingiest pass defense in the NFL last season, allowing under 200 passing yards a game. The future of Nnamdi Asomugha is still up in the air, but if he returns, expect Oakland's secondary to be just as good. This means that Aaron Rodgers will need to be at his best for the Packers to win.
Probability of a win: 70 percent
Oakland surprised many teams last year with their improved play. However, it appears as if Asomugha is on his way out. Losing one of the best cornerbacks in the league will allow Rodgers to have a huge game.
Week 15: Green Bay at Kansas City
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Keys to victory: Stop the run, Pressure Matt Cassel
Kansas City was another surprising team last year, as they won the AFC West. Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones was the best running duo in the NFL. Both players return and both players will be just as good. The Packers defensive line will have to get into the backfield and make plays for the Packers to be successful. If Jamaal Charles is averaging over five yards a carry, Green Bay could be in trouble.
Matt Cassel had a solid season that earned him a Pro Bowl invitation. He only threw seven interceptions all season long and was a good leader on the field. There is no doubt that Kansas City will live and die by the run, but Cassel will need to make plays with his arm for the Chiefs to have a chance to win. If Matthews and Woodson can get to Cassel, the Chiefs could be in trouble.
Probability of a win: 60 percent
This will be a very difficult game for the Packers. Kansas City will try to pound the ball on the ground all game long. Stopping Charles and Jones will be a necessity for the Packers to walk out of Arrowhead Stadium with a win.
Week 16: Chicago at Green Bay
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Keys to victory: Pressure Jay Cutler, Stop Devin Hester
Clay Matthews is my preseason pick to win Defensive Player of the Year. He will have to be at his best against Chicago. The Packers have had success with getting after Jay Cutler. The Bears don't have a strong offensive line and the Packers will need to take advantage of that. Look for Clay Matthews to get multiple sacks on Cutler.
Devin Hester is one of the most explosive players in the NFL when the ball is in his hands. He is already the greatest return man to ever play the game. The Packers did a fantastic job in the playoffs last year at keeping the ball out of Hester's hands. They will have to do that again to come away with a victory.
Probability of a win: 80 percent
Green Bay is nearly unbeatable at home in December. Chicago usually plays poorly in Green Bay. This should be an easy win for the Packers.
Week 17: Detroit at Green Bay
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Keys to victory: Don't rest starters
By the final game of the regular season, the Packers will most likely already have a playoff spot. The one mistake that they cannot make is to rest their starters. They will need to keep their momentum going to make another deep playoff run. The Lions could be fighting for a Wild Card spot, so the Packers should expect Detroit to come out to play.
Probability of a win: 85 percent
If the Packers play their starters for the entire game, this should be an easy win. If Mike McCarthy decides to rest some players, this should be a big loss.
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