NBA Playoff Predictions 2011: 5 First-Round Upsets You Can Bet On
The NBA playoffs are right around the corner, and while these games aren’t quite as unpredictable as March Madness, you can be sure there will be an upset or two.
Teams that were once clear-cut favorites are plagued by injuries, and those that used to be afterthoughts have been rejuvenated by trades.
Upsets could conceivably occur in five of the eight first-round matchups. Whether you’re a gambler or simply looking for bragging rights, read on to find out who’s going to make an early exit.
New York Knicks over Boston Celtics in 7
1 of 5
The fate of the Boston Celtics rests squarely upon the shoulders of center Shaquille O’Neal. Since February 1, O’Neal has entered one game. Making a brief return April 3, he was on the court for a mere five-and-a-half minutes before sustaining a right calf strain, which sidelined him for the remainder of the regular season.
O’Neal has resumed practicing with the goal of playing in Sunday’s home game versus the New York Knicks. However, there is no guarantee that he will be effective even if he does suit up. If O’Neal dresses for the game, he will undoubtedly play reduced minutes.
While he’s just a shadow of his former self, O’Neal showed flashes of brilliance and proved he still can be a force to be reckoned with. He’s too large for any of the Knicks big men to contain, and if Amar’e Stoudemire is stuck guarding him, Stoudemire could easily get into foul trouble. O’Neal’s presence in the paint would cause New York to rely on perimeter shooting. More often than not, if the Knicks are cold from beyond the arc, they end up on the losing end.
This is all wishful thinking. Realistically, if O'Neal does find the court, he’ll likely be out of sync. Furthermore, he won’t have regained his wind and will be too out of shape to run the floor for an extended period. If he’s fortunate enough to be out there, expect O’Neal to play 15-20 minutes.
Without O’Neal roaming the interior, Stoudemire will have a field day. Boston will realize that age is finally catching up to them when Carmelo Anthony puts on a scoring clinic; no one on the Celtics is capable of shutting Anthony down.
The Knicks’ youth and athleticism will ultimately be too much for the Celtics to handle.
Denver Nuggets over Oklahoma City Thunder in 6
2 of 5
Yes, the Thunder have two of the NBA’s brightest young stars in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, but thanks to the New York Knicks, the Denver Nuggets have two legitimate starting lineups! With a bench including the likes of Raymond Felton, J.R. Smith and Al Harrington, the Nuggets are deep.
Denver has been one of the hottest teams in the league since the trade deadline, compiling an 18-7 record. The new acquisitions from the Knicks have transitioned seamlessly, and Raymond Felton—a borderline All-Star—has embraced his role as backup to Ty Lawson.
While the Thunder rely exclusively on Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and sixth man James Harden to score, the Nuggets have a legitimate scorer at all five positions. The additions of Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari has given Denver greater versatility at the small forward position. Each has the ability to shoot the three or drive to the hole, and they frequently share the court together.
In terms of defense, Kendrick Perkins was a nice pickup for Oklahoma City, but he’s incapable of slowing down the Nuggets frontcourt tandem of Nene and Kenyon Martin.
Denver has the ability to score from anywhere and spread the floor. Although Oklahoma City possesses two of the most prolific scorers, the Nuggets' offensive weapons outnumber them. In the end, Denver wins the run-and-gun battle of who can put the greatest amount of points on the board.
Portland Trail Blazers over Dallas Mavericks in 6
3 of 5
With injuries to Portland center Greg Oden and star shooting guard Brandon Roy, the Trail Blazers were all but written off in the fall of 2010. But, the emergence of Wesley Matthews and Nicholas Batum, along with the steady play of veterans Andre Miller and Marcus Camby—not to mention All-Star-caliber performance from LaMarcus Aldridge—kept the team in the hunt.
Tossing former All-Star Gerald Wallace into the mix breathed new life into the team, and suddenly they became a candidate to make a run in the West. Since Wallace was recently thrust into the starting five, Portland is at liberty to bring Roy and Batum off the bench along with streak shooter Rudy Fernandez.
The Mavericks have some scoring specialists of their own, but they typically rely too heavily on Dirk Nowitzki. If Jason Terry has an off-game, guys like Shawn Marion and J.J. Barea will be expected to pick up the slack. This is where the season-ending injury to Caron Butler really hurts them.
Similar to the Boston Celtics, Dallas is also getting up in age. Jason Kidd is still a playmaker, but he practically has one foot in the nursing home and is no longer a scoring threat. On the other hand, underrated point guard Andre Miller will rack up assists and put the ball in the basket.
Gerald Wallace and Brandon Roy are two variables who will put Portland over the top. Wallace brings such an abundance of energy to both ends of the floor that you wouldn’t question him if he told you he chugged a case of Red Bull before tip-off. If Roy is even remotely capable of producing like he did in years past, the Trail Blazers have a secret weapon waiting to explode in a reserve role.
Philadelphia 76ers over Miami Heat in 7
4 of 5
Anybody who thinks the 76ers will beat the Heat will be perceived as crazy, but ever since Doug Collins took over as head coach, he has Philadelphia believing it can conquer anyone. We all know how talented LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh are, but it’s what the Heat don’t have that will be so detrimental.
Miami is clearly lacking in the point guard and center departments. Conversely, Philadelphia has triple-double threat Jrue Holiday orchestrating the offense and a poor man’s Andrea Bargnani with the ability to play inside and outside from the center position in Spencer Hawes.
The Heat also have a sorry excuse for a bench. Outside of Mike Miller, Miami’s reserves such as Eddie House and James Jones don’t offer much besides an occasional three. The 76ers’ strong suit is their bench; Thaddeus Young, Lou Williams and Evan Turner have the ability to break out for 20 points on any given night.
The 76ers don’t possess a defender who can restrain James, but Elton Brand can surely hold his own down low with Bosh. You can also count on Andre Iguodala to be a menace to whomever he’s guarding, specifically Wade.
The bottom line is the “big three” are exceptional, but playing what is essentially three-on-five in the playoffs isn’t going to cut it. Postseason success is contingent upon teamwork, and the collective effort of the deeper Philadelphia squad will be too difficult for Miami to contend with.
Memphis Grizzlies over San Antonio Spurs in 7
5 of 5
Gregg Popovich and the rest of the Spurs organization certainly won’t let on that they’re worried about Manu Ginobili, but his recent elbow hyperextension will certainly impact the team’s performance if he's hindered by the injury against Memphis.
In order to have playoff success, San Antonio requires its core three of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Ginobili to be 100 percent healthy. As Duncan’s skills have diminished with age, the Spurs are counting on the combination of Ginobili and Parker and reserves George Hill and Gary Neal to do the bulk of the scoring.
Although Duncan is still an above-average big man, the key to Memphis winning this series lies in the advantage it has in power forward Zach Randolph and center Marc Gasol. Whether San Antonio chooses to flank Duncan with Antonio McDyess or DeJuan Blair at center is irrelevant. Randolph is a double-double machine regardless of who checks him, and Gasol is simply too big for either of them to box out.
In terms of bench players, the edge goes to the Spurs, but don’t forget about Grizzlies sixth man O.J. Mayo. Just a year ago, he averaged 18 points per game as a starter and can score with the best of them. He’s a purer shooter than any of the Spurs reserves, and if he gets in rhythm, Mayo could definitely be the difference maker.
Many critics fail to notice that since New Year’s Day, Memphis has the fourth -best record in the West. That means the Grizzlies have been playing at a much higher level over the past three months than their eighth seed would lead you to believe.
Prior to the All-Star break, the Spurs were mentioned in the same sentence as the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls that finished an unprecedented 72-10. San Antonio stumbled during the home stretch and struggled to win 60 games. Memphis has the momentum, and the hotter team will prevail.
