NBA Playoffs: Why the Miami Heat Will Not Survive Round 2 of the NBA Playoffs
July 7, 2010: Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh sign with the Miami Heat.
July 8, 2010: LeBron James signs with the Miami Heat, and a destiny is created.
April 16, 2011: The Miami Heat start their playoff run.
Mid-to-late May, 2011: The Heat are ousted from the playoffs
This highly touted team picked up the second seed in the Eastern Conference, but was that all overrated? The Philadelphia 76ers, New York Knicks and Boston Celtics can all play, and even if Miami survives that, they will most likely see top-seeded Chicago in the Eastern Conference finals. Plus, Miami has some problems of their own they need to assess. Here they are:
First off, the supporting cast. LeBron, D-Wade and Chris Bosh are all great players, but they can't win games three-on-five. Miami's fourth highest scorer (Udonis Haslem) averages eight points per game, and Mike Bibby and Eddie House trail him. The Heat went 58-24 and they dominated the 76ers, but they had some trouble with Boston and New York. If they don't get a contribution from the bench, they will be in trouble.
Second, the points and assists. Since the three stars have all shared the workload, it is definitely acceptable that their PPG totals are less, but the assists? Each player has had their assists total lowered by at least 0.5 APG, and that just boggles my mind—they have two of the league's best players donning the same uniform. That just shows that the Heat haven't meshed together yet, and this is the time for them to do that.
Like I said, the Heat haven't completely clicked yet. They started the year 9-8, and once they finally got to know each other better and study what their teammates liked to do on the court, the team went 49-16. Although it won over three times as many games as it lost, Miami is a streaky team.
At some times, the Heat struggle to play well consistently, especially against teams that are better than them (going 0-4 against Chicago and 1-3 against Boston). If the Heat get one of their bad streaks going in one of the first two rounds, they will be watching the conference finals on TV.
Miami is 3-5 against the two teams in the 3-6 matchup (they play the winner), and they will need to step up and stop their opponents. Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire racked up two late wins over Miami for the Knicks, and the Big Four helped the Cs take three of four from Miami in the regular season. The Heat will need to stop what the Cs and Knicks do best, execute their plans and pick up more assists and play well consistently. And to put them over the top, a little help is needed from the supporting cast.
New York traded for Anthony and Chauncey Billups to add to Stoudemire, and if those three can mash together well and Landry Fields and co-pick up the slack and help those three, the Knicks can be serious contenders. If Rajon Rondo plays like the 2010 playoff Rondo and the Big Three don't show their age, Boston will be tough to beat. In the first round, if Andre Iguodola, Elton Brand, Thaddeus Young and company play well, an upset could be in the making.
Another burden for the Heat is the age issue. Their two youngest players receive under $1 million and other than the Big Three (who are all under 30), the Heat are old. James Jones (who can step up but is very inconsistent) and Udonis Haslem are both 30, but without contributions from those two or an unexpected source of help, Miami will be doomed.
Eddie House and Mike Bibby are both 32 and past their primes (although House may have more left in the tank, because he hasn't really reached the summit yet). All the players Miami picked up to add extra support haven't done as well—or even close—to what was expected. Mike Miller, Zydrunas Illgauskas, Erick Dampier—nothing.
If the Heat don't play well consistently, get help from the supporting cast, figure out the opponents and start dishing out some dimes, Miami is in trouble.
I don't see Philly bringing much of a challenge, especially because Miami beat them in all three games they played, and they have no real star to guide them through the playoffs. However, in the second round, I have New York coming together, Miami not getting enough support from the bench and the Knicks moving on to the East finals to face Chicago.
If Anthony and Stoudemire get it together, Billups displays his shooting skills, Toney Douglas and Fields support the three and Miami's bench outplays Boston's, the Knicks will win. I think New York plays like that through the first two rounds, until Chicago shuts them down.
Heat 2011 playoff prediction: Heat lose 4-2 to Knicks
