2011 NBA Playoff Predictions: Portland Trail Blazers Will Beat Dallas Mavericks
The 2011 Portland Trail Blazers have been quite fortunate—a rare phenomenon for this particular organization. Haunted by draft follies and injuries past, the often tortured, ever loyal Blazers fanbase has rejoiced at the unexpected success of this year's squad.
With the rise of LaMarcus Aldridge and additions of world-class scrappers Wes Matthews and Gerald Wallace, the Blazers have emerged as perhaps the scariest No. 6 seed in recent playoff history. Their overall size, athleticism and depth has Portland primed to advance past Round 1 for the first time in 11 years.
As the regular season wound down, Blazers fans almost crapped their collective pants at the thought of playing the Lakers in the first round. Luckily, some higher power delivered them the Dallas Mavericks—a matchup that could not possibly be better for Portland.
The Blazers have several major advantages and should eventually prevail over the higher-seeded Mavericks. Of course, with their luck, LaMarcus Aldridge is probably tearing his ACL as I write this...
Battle of the Slow Point Guards
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Portland's main weakness is Andre Miller's speed, or rather, lack thereof. Miller is a smart, savvy veteran and one of the most underrated point guards in the NBA. His size, craftiness and general experience make him a constant threat; however, fast and athletic point guards like Oklahoma City's Russell Westbrook have a tendency to eat him alive.
Luckily for Miller, the Mavericks point guard is Jason Kidd—a man who will never be accused of being fast or athletic.
Without having to worry about Kidd blowing by Miller, Portland's perimeter defenders will be able to stay in the pockets of Dallas' outside shooters, taking away the Mavs' biggest strength: 3-point shooting.
Backcourt Size
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Portland's size advantage at the guard position is, well, large.
Blazers guards Wes Matthews, Rudy Fernandez, Brandon Roy and Nicolas Batum (all of whom play at least 20 minutes) are all between 6'5" and 6'8". The Mavericks top four guards—Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, J.J. Barea and Rodrigue Beaubois—are all between 5'11" and 6'4".
Notice a bit of a difference there? The Mavericks have assembled a roster full of small guards. The Blazers have assembled a roster designed to destroy teams with small guards.
Don't get me wrong, Jason Terry and J.J Barea are fine players. But the fact that one of them will be forced to guard Wes Matthews or Brandon Roy is giving Rick Carlisle nightmares right now. Portland's length and athleticism will allow them to wreak havoc on the defensive end and dominate the smaller Mavs on offense.
Balanced Scoring
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The most dangerous aspect of the Blazers offense is that nearly everybody is a threat to score 25 or 30 on a given night. Aside from defensive-minded Marcus Camby, every other player in the eight-man rotation is a scoring eruption waiting to happen.
LaMarcus Aldridge is the leading scorer with 22 points per game, but he has plenty of help. Five players (Matthews, Wallace, Miller, Roy, Batum) average between 12.2 and 15.8 per game.
The offense centers around feeding it to Aldridge on the low block, but Portland can score consistently in many different ways. Andre Miller takes smaller guards into the paint for easy points. Gerald Wallace scrapes up points by crashing the offensive glass. Sharpshooters Fernandez, Matthews and Batum can rain threes like NBA Jam characters.
Aldridge also has a near-automatic 15-foot jumper, which forces opposing big men to follow him away from the basket. With no shot-blockers at the rim, Miller and the freakishly long, scrappy athletes have been executing an absurd amount of alley-oops off of backdoor cuts.
Dallas simply does not have enough quality defenders to match up with all of Portland's potent scoring threats. The Blazers' combination of size, athleticism and 3-point shooting will eventually overwhelm the undersized Mavericks.
Defenders for Dirk
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Let's not kid ourselves—nobody in the world can stop Dirk Nowitzki from getting his 22-25 points a night. He's just too big, too smart and too good of a shooter. His turnaround fade-away is the most unstoppable shot in basketball right now. No matter who is covering him, Dirk will get his.
With that said, if anybody has the personnel to bother him just a little, it's the Blazers. Portland has the proper combination of size, length and athleticism to annoy Dirk better than any other team. They have multiple guys they can use to frustrate Dirk, all of whom do different things.
Gerald Wallace is an elite athlete who has basically made a living in the NBA by playing harder than everyone else. He's a physical defender and is widely regarded as one of the most fearless players in the league. Although he surrenders a couple of inches of height to Nowitzki, he will make sure Dirk receives physical punishment every time he touches the ball.
Nicolas Batum is the exact opposite of Wallace. The razor-thin Frenchman has a slender 6'8" frame, ridiculous wingspan and go-go-gadget extendable arms. His length, athleticism and quickness will help him contest Nowitzki's beautiful outside shot.
Aldridge lacks the lateral quickness to cover him on the perimeter, but his size can cause Dirk problems on his mid-range jumper. Aldridge can crowd Nowitzki's shot, knowing that Marcus Camby has his back if Dirk beats him off the dribble.
Like I said, Nowitzki will get his points regardless of who is defending him. And although they won't completely stop him, Portland has the defenders to at least slow him down.
LaMarcus Aldridge
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The undeniable catalyst of Portland's success has been LaMarcus Aldridge. The University of Texas product has been playing at an All-NBA level, putting the injury-riddled Blazers on his back and carrying them to the No. 6 seed in the ultra-competitive Western Conference.
The former second overall pick has emerged as the unquestioned best player on the Blazers, averaging 22 points and 8.6 rebounds in 39 minutes per game. He entered this season with a new arsenal of reliable low-post moves and a deadly mid-range jumper. And although his physical skills have certainly improved, it's his new mentality that stands out most this season.
In his first few years, Aldridge seemed afraid of banging on the low block despite his large frame. He would constantly settle for jump shots, even with smaller defenders checking him. This season, Aldridge apparently realized how big he actually is. The 6'11", 240-pound power forward has been punishing opponents down low, averaging 8.2 points per game at the rim.
Aldridge has destroyed Dallas this season, averaging 27 points in three contests. He overpowers Dirk inside and draws Tyson Chandler away from the rim with his shooting ability. Aldridge has thrived as the focal point of Portland's offense this season, and there is no reason to believe his production will drop off in the playoffs.
Verdict
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This is the year that the Blazers finally advance to the second round. Dirk is an all-time great, but Portland has too much size, athleticism and depth for him to win this series by himself.
I'm expecting the Blazers to have plenty of scoring opportunities at the rim and a couple of monster games from LaMarcus Aldridge. Dirk will undoubtedly empty his full clip, but it will not be enough to overcome the balanced Blazers.
Portland Wins 4-2
