2011 NBA Playoffs Predictions: Will the Chicago Bulls Beat the Indiana Pacers?

On March 18, the Indiana Pacers upset the Chicago Bulls in overtime, 115-108. Maybe that's why Danny Granger thinks that the Pacers are better off facing the Bulls than the Celtics, I don't know, but it really doesn't matter. They aren't going to  win the series. 

Not only will the Bulls win, but they will probably also sweep, and at most the Pacers might eek out one win. Why? the Bulls are just a much better basketball team, but there are plenty of specifics. The following slides will encapsulate those reasons. 

Derrick Rose Owns Daren Collison

Admittedly, the history is brief, only six games, but Derrick Rose ownership is so complete over Darren Collison that Collison should probably be checking to see if Derrick's name is written on him somewhere.

In fact, Derrick scored 42 the last time they faced off alone. Collison has scored 56 total points in the six games combined. 

Derrick's averages are 23.3 points, 6.7 assists and 5.5 rebounds. Collison's, 9.3 points, 4.0 assists, and 2.2 rebounds.

With dominance like that and the kind of history Rose has of playing in the clutch, Granger can prattle on all he wants about all you have to do is stop Rose. Rose doesn't talk, Granger does. He also likes to use anything he can for ammunition.

He's already been nursing the fact that the Pacers won the last time they played in spite of his 42 points. Now Granger added more fuel to the fire. Derrick Rose is going to have the kind of series that may have Darren Collison wanting to call his mom and tell her not to watch.  

Paul George Isn't Enough to Take Advantage of Keith Bogans

Paul George statistically has an edge over Keith Bogans in this matchup. I'm not even sure if the Pacers will be starting George for the playoffs though as Mike Dunleavy Jr. might end up with the start. Either way it shouldn't make much difference. 

In fact in terms of efficiency differential in the four games the Bulls and Pacers have played this year, the Bulls are only minus-five from compared to the Pacers. Over the course of the season the Bulls efficiency average from the shooting guard position is 15.9 compared to the Pacers 18.2

The Pacers have the slight edge in this matchup, but it's nowhere near enough to compensate for their being mismatched everywhere else. 

Luol Deng Is Better Than Danny Granger

Danny Granger is the Pacers' best player, but he's got a problem on his hand. He's been outplayed by Luol Deng. Over the course of their careers in head-to-head matchups Deng outscores Granger 17.2 to 16.8, out-rebounds him 7.2 to 5.7 and and has 2.7 assists to Granger's 2.1. His field goal percentage is also .445 to Granger's .406.

Luol Deng has won 56 of his personal matchups and the Bulls are 44-12 when he does. Danny Granger has won only 41 of his 76 matchups.

The key to this is actually going to come down to scoring efficiency. When Deng has a better field goal percentage than the opposing starting small forward the Bulls are 39-9 and Deng has out-shot Granger in all four games this year. 

Maybe Granger needs to worry a little less about Rose and a little more about Deng.  

Carlos Boozer Is a Better Rebounder Than Tyler Hansborough

It would be unfair to really take their historical matchups into consideration. Boozer wasn't in when Hansborough had his big game against the Bulls. What there is shows a hugely lopsided matchup in Boozer's favor, 24.5 points for Boozer to 9.0 to Hansborough. 

Boozer is just too big and too strong for Hansborough. Boozer is listed as 266 pounds and Hansborough at 250, but it doesn't take a carnival trick to figure out that there's more than a 16-pound difference between the two. I think Boozer could eat Hansborough and have room for leftovers. 

There's no way Psycho T gets more rebounds than Boozer. Even his per 36 minute stats show 8.6 rebounds for him and he's going to be lucky to get that going against Boozer. In the game against the Nets Boozer played limited minutes but in the nine games prior to that he averaged 13 rebounds per game.

When Boozer out-rebounds the opposing power forward the Bulls are 33-6 (.846). He will dominate the glass against the Pacers and that will be a key to the Bulls dominance in the series.  

Joakim Noah Is a Much Better Help Defender Than Roy Hibbert

In terms of their straight up matchup, the two players are fairly even over the course of their careers. Roy Hibbert has half a point more than Joakim Noah, but Noah is about one rebound better. Where the difference is with these two is defense. 

Joakim Noah is a much better help defender than Roy Hibbert. Without a serious low post scorer, the Indiana Pacers' only real chance is to get hot from the perimeter. Noah is such a good defender, and so quick laterally that he can cut off lanes and neutralize wing players. 

This in term lets the perimeter defenders play tighter on on perimeter shooters. It's a part of the reason that the Bulls lead the league in three point percentage against. Hibbert may be able to have a draw with Noah in terms of personal numbers, but the Bulls still have the advantage in this matchup. 

The Bulls Bench Is Just Too, Too Good for Indiana

It's hard to say who the real leader is for the "Bench Mob" but they are such a great unit that Tom Thibodeau is likely to leave them playing together for the postseason, particularly against the Indiana Pacers. If you want to know how impressive, consider this. 

The Bulls are 58-2 when their bench has a higher efficiency than their opponents. 

The Bulls bench has won the efficiency battle with the Pacers in every game this season. 

I mean, what else is there to say? 

Tom Thibodeau Is a Better Coach Than Frank Vogel

Frank Vogel has done a nice job pitching in relief and has even posted a winning record as the Pacers head coach at 20-17. He's done a spectacular job just to get the Pacers to the postseason.

He's no Tom Thibodeau though, who just completed the most successful season by a rookie head coach in the history of the NBA. I firmly believe that Thibs keeps scouting reports in the potty. Why waste an opportunity to learn even more about basketball right?

In all honesty where he's been spectacular in the regular season, expect Thibs to be even better in the postseason. He's a master of basketball and strategy. There is a zero percent chance he gets out-coached.  

Intangibles: 22,000 Screaming and Thirsty Bulls Fans Will Not Be Denied!

It's been a long time since 1998 and the city of Chicago is pumped like they haven't been since then for their Chicago Bulls! The United Center is going to be alive and electric. The Bulls own the best home record in the NBA, and they aren't going to be letting the Pacers take a game away from them there. 

If there were an experienced team it might be possible they could take advantage in game one. It's possible the Bulls would be a little too excited with the incredible regular season they've had and come out a bit discombobulated. 

However the Pacers aren't the Celtics. The stage will be too big for them. If they have a chance to steal a game in the series it's going to have to be at home. Even then it's unlikely they can claim more than one. 

Look for the Bulls in four or five and get some extended rest to watch the Magic play the Hawks.