NBA Playoff Predictions 2011: Predicting the X-Factor for Each Team in the East
This is it. The East is set, with all of the playoff matchups and seeding in place. The playoffs are long and exciting with star power on display every night. But what generally wins championships is not the superstars or the go-to-guys, but the key role players, the X-factors. Every team has an X-factor. You can't get anywhere without one.
Some are obvious while others, not so much. Out west, the Lakers' clear X-factor is Matt Barnes, the man who can guard anyone in the NBA when healthy. He gives the Lakers the clear advantage defensively. With the much awaited Eastern Conference Playoffs almost underway, let's take a look at the X-factors of the East.
No. 8 Seed Indiana Pacers: Tyler Hansbrough
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Tyler Hansbrough, the superb college player at North Carolina, hasn't done all that much in the pros. Well, as of late, he has shown why he was drafted 13th overall and so highly touted. His minutes have greatly increased over the last two months, and he has also compiled seven games with over 20 points since the beginning of March. He only had five total for the rest of the season. His points per game in March were a solid five points more than for the whole season combined.
While he isn't quite a go-to-guy or a real threat on offense, he does reel in over five rebounds a game and is a solid defensive presence. He is likely to have to match up with almost-superstar Carlos Boozer or Luol Deng (a serious offensive weapon and defensive stopper) in the first round against the Bulls. In two games against Chicago this year, Hansbrough averaged 20.5 points and 7.5 rebounds a game.
No. 7 Seed Philadelphia 76ers: Evan Turner
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Yes, the above picture is from Turner's days as a student at Ohio State University. That is exactly what the 76ers need from him, just a tiny resemblance to the unstoppable, dominant Buckeye that landed him as the second overall pick in last year's draft, One who was so good that the 76ers passed on big man DeMarcus Cousins. He's shown flashes of his former brilliance, but the fact that last year's NCAA Player of the Year is playing behind Jodie Meeks, is rather embarrassing for both Turner and the Sixers.
Turner almost single-handedly carried his Buckeyes to a national title, so come playoff time, maybe the kid will show up. They're gonna need more than just 7.2 points and four rebounds per game out of their 6'7" future star. He won't be a bust. He's already making strides towards being a better player, but the Sixers are going to need a lot of help to knock off the Heat.
No. 6 Seed New York Knicks: Ronny Turiaf
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Turiaf hasn't had a solid role for the Knicks all season. He's playing roughly 17 minutes per game, sharing a lot of time with Jared Jeffries, and of course, Amar'e Stoudemire. He gives a lot of effort, hustle and heart, but is lacking in the statistical categories. He scores four points and grabs three rebounds per game. The Knicks will need more than that out of their starting center, having committed to him through Game 1 of the series against the Boston Celtics.
The Celtics are a team that lacks a real big man, splitting time amongst Glen Davis, Jermaine O'Neal and Nenad Kristic. If Turiaf can post up successfully and crash the boards, you can expect a lot of second chance opportunities and good shots out of the post. Turiaf is only 6'10," but the Celtics are undersized as well. Joel Anthony, a 6'9" center, had career numbers against Boston's frontcourt.
No. 5 Seed Atlanta Hawks: Jamal Crawford
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He's one of the most stellar sixth men in the NBA, and he continues to make an impact in every game for this Atlanta Hawks team. The Hawks severely lack defense, and they have struggled against several of the league's top teams in the midst of a six-game losing streak to close the year. Granted, they are playing another team that doesn't make a living on defense in the Magic, so expect high-scoring games. Crawford isn't a superb scorer, or a phenomenal dime dropper, nor does he get many rebounds or pick many pockets.
But in 30 minutes of play per game Crawford always manages to make an impact, whether being clutch down the stretch, slowing down a fast guard or making a sweet pass. He and Al Horford are the heart of the Hawks, while the way overpaid Joe Johnson appears to have the most talent. Crawford is averaging 14.2 points per game, and the Hawks will need clutch shooting and a lot of scoring out of him to help them get past the Magic.
No. 4 Seed Orlando Magic: Brandon Bass
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It's plain and simple, the Orlando Magic live and die by the three-pointer. If it's going in, they are likely to win games. If it's not, they'll rack up the L's. And yet their X-Factor isn't one of their multitude of three-point shooters. In fact it is a big man. Brandon Bass has improved a lot this year, and he is clearly beginning to become a force inside. Bass got increased minutes when backup center Marcin Gortat was traded to Phoenix, and he is responsible for not only starting at power forward but for backing up Dwight Howard as well.
Bass contributes as much in the hustle as he does on the box score, where he is averaging 11 points, six rebounds and one block per game. Bass, a five-year veteran, will have to seriously man up inside against the tough Atlanta Hawks, and there is no doubt that he will. He's a tough it out, nose-to-the-grindstone type guy who just keeps improving.
No. 3 Seed Boston Celtics: Jeff Green
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It's not so much that Jeff Green is expected to step up for the Celtics in the playoffs. It's that if he doesn't, the Boston organization will have made an epic mistake trading their starting center (powerhouse-in-the-paint) Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson over to Oklahoma City for Green and Nenad Kristic. Kristic isn't exactly the center Perkins was. So Green needs to fill up the scoreboard, and lock down players like Carmelo Anthony and Dwyane Wade, players he will be responsible for in the first round against the Knicks and presumably against the Heat if they advance into the second round.
He was playing stellar basketball before the trade, but since the all-star break, his points per game have dropped by five points. He is now in an unfamiliar role, coming off the bench behind superstar Paul Pierce, whereas he started in OKC raking in the stats. He still grabs almost five rebounds per game, and is a very solid defender, but his matchups aren't going to be easy. Neither will the Knicks. If the Celtics manage to get by New York, they will likely face a Miami Heat team who appeared to have their number the last time they met. Green is going to need to contribute a lot to help the Celtics get back to the Finals.
No. 2 Seed Miami Heat: Joel Anthony
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Of all the X-Factors, Anthony might be the most important. If he performs like he is supposed to, and locks down the big men of the East as he has all year, the Heat can definitely go far. Very far in fact. Take a look at the Heat's statistics. You won't see Anthony at the top of anywhere except in blocks, but ask his teammates who works the hardest on the Heat, and they'll all say Joel Anthony, hands down.
He is the hardest working stat-less player in the NBA. Yet he does manage to get blocks and lots of them. He averages 1.2 per game, and leads the league in blocks off the bench. His minutes are expected to be dramatically increased following a dominant performance against Boston. Well, dominant for Anthony at least. When he is at his best, and the Heat's center-by-committee is working with Big Z and Dampier is also contributing, then they look like a well-oiled machine.
Just for kicks.
Joel Anthony's Stats:
2.0 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 1.2 BPG, 19.5 MIN Per game.
Impressive stuff.
No. 1 Seed Chicago Bulls: Kyle Korver
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While the above photograph may show Kyle Korver off the dribble, that is not at all why he is an X-Factor for this young, talented Chicago Bulls team. And no, I know I am shocking you, it's not his defense either. Korver has one of the nicest three-point shots in the NBA, and at this juncture of the season, one of the most important. His averages on the season are 8.2 PPG, but he also made 1.5 three-point field goals.
If he can provide a reliable and clutch outlet for the fantastic yet sometimes reckless driving Derrick Rose, as well as a phenomenal spot-up look for the Bulls' big men to kick it out to, Korver can help this team go far as all Bulls fans are expecting them to. The Bulls get Indiana in the first round, a team who Korver has not shot very well against during the regular season, however he likely won't be needed to heat up until Round 2, against either Orlando or Atlanta.
