What Do Mock BCS Rankings Mean for the Mountain West?

The new Harris and Coaches' polls are out, along with five of the six computer rankings, so it's time to dive in and see what they all mean. The human polls (Harris and Coaches') make up one-third each, and the rest of the computers make up one-third of the BCS rankings.

Also, the human polls go by total votes and not their placing in the poll. This is a more accurate reading because a team who is ranked just one spot higher in the poll position is not one point higher because those teams could be separated by a few total votes. That is why the vote count is used instead of their position in the polls.

The comparisons of the teams will be the top three schools in the MWC, which will be BYU, TCU, and Utah.

The reason to include TCU is because if they are to have an 11-1 record, that will include defeating two teams ranked in the top 15 and top 10. TCU should then be able to be ranked high enough with the provisions that allow a team to be top 16 and ahead of another automatic BCS qualifier that is lower then 16.

Colley Matrix	Sagarin Ratings	Wolfe Ratings	Massey Ratings	Anderson/Hester	Billingsley Report
5. Utah 25. BYU 31. TCU	14 Utah 15 TCU 16 BYU	N/A	4. Utah 31. BYU 33. TCU	6. Utah 19. BYU 31. TCU	9. Utah 10. BYU 19. TCU

This chart above is what the current BCS computers have the teams at as of today. Still, it is only five of the six computer rankings.  These computers really favor the Utes.  Also, the other two polls' rankings are listed below.

Harris Poll Rankings                     Coaches' Poll

9. BYU 1,964 Points                         8. BYU 1,086 Points

13. Utah 1,416 Points                     13. Utah 793 Points

28. TCU 139 Points                         27. TCU 84

There are good and bad things about Utah and BYU being ranked so high this part of the season.  The main disadvantage is that the Mountain West is much tougher then the WAC, MAC, and C-USA.  All three of those leagues have undefeated teams in Boise State, Ball State, and Tulsa.

It will be hard for Tulsa or Ball State to get there because both are barely in the discussion for the top 25 in the Coaches' and Harris polls.

Boise State is the biggest threat to Utah or BYU.  Boise State’s SOS did take a hit with Fresno State losing to Hawai’i, but the Broncos get Hawai’i and Fresno both at home.  Their toughest game looks to be at Nevada, but Boise has owned the Wolf Pack the past six years.

Then there are teams that will jump BYU, at this time, or block Utah from getting too much higher.  The teams may not be better, but public perception in the polls will rank these other teams higher because of their brand name and conference and just assume they are better than a lowly Mountain West team.

One more thing before more team breakdowns.  All the BYU fans who were pumped and the "experts" who were writing articles and wondering if BYU, and to a lesser extent Utah, could make the BCS title game need to use Lee Corso’s "Not so fast my friend."

Just this last week BYU had a less than impressive win against Utah State and were jumped by Texas Tech, who had a convincing victory over Kansas State on the road. What is more interesting to me is that while BYU was jumped, they still gained more votes than the week before, going from 1,054 points to 1,086.

This is important since the poll averages total votes and not poll position, and in the BCS, which measures out to four decimal points, each vote matters.

Below are scenarios for what teams could stay ahead of the MWC champ, if it is BYU or Utah and the winner is unbeaten.  First will be teams listed below in the coaches' poll, and I choose that because it is one-third.  As bad as it sounds, it's the most reliable source of voting.

No. 1 Oklahoma/No. 5 Texas/Big 12 Runner-up

The Big 12 is interesting because Texas and Oklahoma play each other this weekend, and it is possible that even though one team will lose that both could still be ahead of BYU.  The reasoning behind this is that if Texas wins, Oklahoma most likely will not fall behind BYU.

The only way for that is if BYU defeats New Mexico by at least 30 points and Oklahoma gets beat by the same margin. That is an unlikely scenario for Oklahoma to lose by that much.

On the other hand, if Texas loses, in my opinion they will fall behind BYU almost no matter what, even if BYU wins a close one over New Mexico.  If the Red River Rivalry comes down to the last play and BYU wins by a few, then there is a scenario where Texas could stay ahead with a loss.

Then there is the runner up in the Big 12.  This could be interesting, because most have Missouri playing either Oklahoma or Texas in the title game.  Missouri could still lose the Texas game and make it to the title game since the North is still not on the level of the South.

A scenario that could pit the runner-up ahead of an undefeated MWC champ is if it is Missouri if they are 12-0 but then loses the title game.  That scenario could put Missouri ahead of an undefeated Utah but may not have Missouri ahead of an undefeated BYU.

If the loser is Oklahoma or Texas, who most likely would be number one, that loss may drop this loser anywhere between three and five, and realistically ahead of any potential undefeated MWC team.  If the loser is three or four, that is an automatic BCS bid, because a non-conference champ gets an automatic bid if they are third or fourth.

Texas Tech is neglected because they play four straight ranked teams with two at home and two on the road, and history has shown that the Red Raiders have not taken the step to the top of the Big 12.  If Texas Tech wins first two of those, then the Red Raiders will be considered for the Big 12 and this discussion.

No. 9 USC

Currently the Trojans have only one ranked team on the schedule as of today, and that is Cal.  Cal has been iffy this year and USC cannot rely on that team to be ranked.  The Arizona game on the road could be a tough game, as the Wildcats should be 5-1 when the Trojans come into town and very close to a top 25 ranking.

Then there is the wild card in Notre Dame, who currently has a 4-1 record, albeit against bad competition.  Notre Dame is possibly the biggest key to USC not just staying ahead of the MWC champ, but also getting back to the national title game.

As painful as it is to say this, the Fighting Irish could realistically have a 9-2 record coming into the Coliseum.  Everyone loves Notre Dame, so they could be in the top 15 by then, but on the flip side voters have been hesitant to vote The University of College Football of America aka Notre Dame in the polls so far.  However, if they are 9-2, they will be ranked probably in the top 20.

By year's end USC will most likely have wins over three teams, maybe four, that were ranked at some point during the season: California, Oregon, Notre Dame, and Arizona.  If you look at either Utah or BYU, they will have faced each other and TCU, who will be ranked as well.

At the end of the season, the MWC dominance most likely will not be brought up, even though the MWC went 6-1 this year over the Pac-10.

USC will need to have another loss for either school to stay ahead, and it is mainly off of name recognition of being in the Pac-10.  The one good thing about Utah and BYU if both are 11-0 come Nov. 22 is that it is the last week before conference title games and could easily be a matchup with BYU ranked as high as five and Utah in the top 10.

That is much better then what USC would face as they play UCLA for their last game.

No. 10 Georgia

The way the SEC is going, they could be ahead of BYU but be left out because most likely the SEC champ will be in the title game. Then the loser, or a representative from the East, would get an almost certainly gain an at-large bid and leave a two-loss Georgia team out, even if ahead of an undefeated MWC champ.

No one really expects Vandy, who is 5-0, to stay that way and win the East, so expect Georgia to defeat Vandy and then look forward to the no longer named "World’s largest outdoor cocktail party" in Jacksonville, with Florida taking on Georgia to decide the East.

Even if Georgia loses to LSU between those two games, if they win the Florida game that should be enough to put them over the edge and make it to the SEC title game, which could be a rematch against LSU or Alabama.

Georgia was overrated to begin the year, and in my projections Georgia will have to at least make it the SEC title game to stay ahead of Utah or BYU.  The reasoning is that I feel they will lose to both Florida and LSU, which would be three losses, and it's very unlikely they would be ahead of the MWC champ.

No. 11 Ohio State

The Buckeyes are tricky because they were shut out at USC without Chris Wells and rookie quarterback Terrelle Pryor not the primary quarterback.  Voters could give them a different look, plus the USC game was in early September—and as everyone knows, it is better to lose early than late.

The Big Ten is better then people thought, with Penn State ranked sixth and Michigan State just now entering the polls.  The computers like Ohio State much better then BYU, which puts the Buckeyes one spot behind in some mock BCS rankings.

A one-loss Ohio State team that has wins over one top five team, assuming Penn State is there, a win over a top 20 Wisconsin at the time but fading fast, and perhaps a third over a possibly ranked Michigan State would be enough by its own merit to put the Buckeyes ahead in the human polls.

No. 12 Florida

See Georgia above.  Honestly, there is no difference except that Florida gets LSU at home and Vandy on the road.  A Florida team that is able to defeat LSU but loses in the title game should put Florida behind a undefeated BYU or Utah.

History has shown that two-loss teams can still do well, but last year it was the SEC champ that had two losses, and not the runner-up, who made the title game.

All what really matters for the MWC champ to make the BCS is to be top 12 in the BCS rankings or be top 16 and ahead of another conference champ to qualify.

The latter would most likely be the Big East or ACC champ, and under that scenario a one-loss MWC champ could still get in.  Even a long shot could put a one-loss MWC team in as long as their loss is not against a team that goes undefeated.

Here are ESPN's Brad Edwards' Mock BCS Rankings.

Mock BCS Standings (through Week Six)
		Percentage
1,	Oklahoma	.936
2.	Alabama	.929
3.	Missouri	.912
4.	Texas	.843
5.	Penn State	.761
6.	LSU	.752
7.	USC	.619
8.	Vanderbilt	.616
9.	Utah	.615
10.	Georgia	.602
11.	Texas Tech	.563
12.	BYU	.503

Here are the unofficial BCS Rankings from the website BCSGuru.com.  The rankings go to 29 to include TCU.

Rank	Pvs	Team	Rk	Coach	%	Rk	Harris	%								BCS
1	1	Oklahoma	1	1524	0.9993	1	2837	0.9954								0.9483
2	2	Alabama	4	1339	0.8780	3	2594	0.9102								0.9261
3	5	Missouri	2	1404	0.9207	4	2553	0.8958								0.9121
4	3	Texas	5	1305	0.8557	5	2447	0.8586								0.8481
5	6	Penn State	6	1203	0.7889	6	2210	0.7754								0.7648
6	4	LSU	3	1398	0.9167	2	2604	0.9137								0.7335
7	9	USC	9	1055	0.6918	8	2025	0.7105								0.6408
8	7	Georgia	10	937	0.6144	10	1803	0.6326								0.6057
9	11	Utah	13	793	0.5200	13	1416	0.4968								0.6023