2011 NFL Draft: Pick-by-Pick Analysis of Mel Kiper, Jr.'s Recent 4.0 Mock Draft
Here it is, ESPN Draft Insider Mel Kiper, Jr.'s latest mock draft.
This is Kiper, Jr.'s version 4.0 of his series of mock drafts, and it's loaded with some surprising and predictable selections from each 32 teams.
I'm not an expert or a "draft insider" like Kiper, Jr., but I'm a die-hard NFL fan. I feel that I have a strong understanding of how NFL franchises operate and their tendencies.
So, allow me to give Kiper, Jr. a pick-by-pick analysis and letter grade for each draft pick in the first-round.
Be sure to let me know what you think about Kiper, Jr.'s mock draft, I'd love to know—enjoy!
NOTE: This article was first seen at PatriotsPlus.net. Be sure to follow Tony Santorsa on Twitter @ TonySantorsa.
1. Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
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With the first pick of the NFL draft, the Carolina Panthers select Cam Newton...
If this actually happens, I'd be very surprised.
The Carolina Panthers have no elite players on their roster, and they need some pieces to build for the future. Carolina should not be wasting their first overall pick on a development quarterback coming out of a spread-style offense in college—not to mention only one successful and productive season.
Newton is one hell of an athlete, and could be a very special player someday. He is a very risky pick, however, and if the Panthers want to go with a quarterback, Newton is not the choice. He is too much of a gamble.
The Panthers future seasons nearly depend on this selection, and it needs to be a smart one. There are plenty of defensive studs in this draft. I'd strongly advise Carolina to select someone like Marcell Dareus or Patrick Peterson.
Grade: C+
2. Denver Broncos: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
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I think this would be a brilliant move on the Denver Bronco's part if they do draft Marcell Dareus.
The Broncos need help on defense any way they can take it, and wouldn't the smart move be to select the draft's top defensive player? Yes, it would be.
Dareus is projected to be an elite defensive linemen in his NFL career, and would flourish in Denver's 3-4 defensive scheme.
Grade: A
3. Buffalo Bills: Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M
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Several draft analysts are predicting that the Buffalo Bills need to select a quarterback—why? Buffalo has Ryan Fitzpatrick who has shown that he's more than capable of putting up decent numbers.
I love this selection by Kiper, Jr.
Von Miller would be a perfect asset in Buffalo's 3-4 defense.
Miller is the draft's top pass rushing outside linebacker, and he has the athletic skills to drop back into coverage.
Grade: A
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4. Cincinnati Bengals: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
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I'm still kind of "iffy" about this pick for the Bengals.
Yes, A.J. Green is going to be an elite wide receiver and a complete game-changer, but doesn't he need someone to throw him the ball?
Bengals' current quarterback Carson Palmer has made it clear that he wants out. It would make sense to me that the Bengals would select Blaine Gabbert, who is still available.
However, Kiper, Jr. points out a few possibilities for quarterback if the Bengals do select Green: Matt Hasselbeck, Kevin Kolb, and Donovan McNabb.
Grade: C+
5. Arizona Cardinals: Blaine Gabbert, QB Missouri
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This is exactly what the Arizona Cardinals are praying for, along with wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald.
If Blaine Gabbert falls to Arizona at fifth overall, the entire front office will be doing front flips due to how much excitement they'd have.
Granted, the Cardinals are not a good football team offensively or defensively. But, they had some of the worst quarterback play out of any team last season.
Fitzgerald wants a quarterback, and he'll get one, according to Kiper, Jr.
Grade: A+
6. Cleveland Browns: Julio Jones, WR, Alabamba
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I do not like this pick at all.
The Cleveland Browns missed out of A.J. Green, so they'll get the "consolation prize" according to Kiper, Jr—Alabama's Julio Jones.
Yes, Julio Jones is a phenomenal athlete and a great wide receiver, but the Browns have so many more areas of concern.
With plenty of elite defensive players available, I would hope the Browns don't go for the second best wide receiver in the draft.
Grade: C
7. San Francisco 49ers: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
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This would be a miracle, in my opinion, if LSU's Patrick Peterson falls this far. However, Kiper, Jr. predicts that Peterson will drop this far.
I'm not too sure why, considering that Peterson is at the top of every "draft big board."
Peterson is one fine specimen with an amazing skill set. Kiper, Jr. describes Peterson as "a starter and potential impact player from Day 1." Couldn't agree more.
If the 49ers somehow snag Peterson, it'd be a great addition to their secondary.
Grade: A
8. Tennessee Titans: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
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This would be the ideal selection for the Tennessee Titans.
The Titans' defensive line is in shambles, and they need a dominant force on it—Auburn's Nick Fairley can get the job done.
There is one minor concern about Fairley: he's only had one productive season at the college level. So, keep that in mind.
Grade: B
9. Dallas Cowboys: Tyron Smith, OT, USC
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If the Cowboys don't trade back out of the ninth overall pick, then this selection will definitely happen.
Reports across the league have been that Dallas has shown significant amount of interest in Tyron Smith, and love his ability to play left or right tackle.
The Cowboys must protect quarterback Tony Romo moving forward, and it starts here.
Grade: B
10. Washington Redskins: J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
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This is a rather interesting pick, in my opinion.
Kiper, Jr. describes the Washington Redskins as having "serious needs on the offensive side of the ball, but if Gabbert and Newton are gone, and Green and Jones too, they should address another need or look to trade down."
If I have to agree with Kiper, Jr. If Gabbert, Newton, Green, and Jones are gone, then Mike Shannahan will definitely trade back a few slots.
Although, J.J. does improve the team's defensive end position, which is one of the team's many weaknesses.
Grade: B-
11. Houston Texans: Robert Quinn, LB, UNC
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Defensive end / linebacker Robert Quinn will be the biggest steal of the 2011 NFL draft in my opinion.
If the Houston Texans select Quinn, he will play the outside linebacker position in Wade Phillips' newly installed 3-4 defense.
Quinn will end up playing, and producing, like Pro Bowler DeMarcus Ware (Phillips' former linebacker on the Dallas Cowboys).
This is a genius pick by the Texans, allowing Phillips to find his new "DeMarcus Ware."
Grade: A+
12. Minnesota Vikings: Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
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Clemson defensive end Da'Quan Bowers is just too much talent to pass on.
As of late, with recent concerns regarding Bowers' chronic knee problems, his stock has fallen.
If his stock falls all the way to the Minnesota Vikings at 12th overall, they will select him in a heart-beat.
Grade: B
13. Detroit Lions: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
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To me, this is one of the surprising picks in Kiper, Jr.'s mock draft.
Kiper, Jr. describes the Detroit Lions as being "desparate for an upgrade at the cornerback position, and Amukamara is capable of contributing very early."
I'm not too sure about this pick. The Lions need help protecting quarterback Matthew Stafford and that should be their number one priority.
Grade: B-
14. St. Louis Rams: Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
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The St. Louis Rams really need a wide receiver. But, unfortunately, the two best receivers have already been drafted.
Illinois' Corey Liuget has seen his stock rise lately, and I'm not sure why. He's an above average defensive linemen, and I don't believe he is the top player at his position.
The Rams do need help on the defensive line, but I think this is way too early to draft Liuget.
Grade: C-
15. Miami Dolphins: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
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Mark Ingram to the Miami Dolphins is almost a lock. Every single draft analyst has the Dolphins selecting Ingram–well it's a good pick, Ingram is the draft's most complete back.
Miami will likely part ways with running backs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, and they aren't quite giving up on quarterback Chad Henne.
Ingram will thrive in Miami's offense and will give Henne some much needed support.
Grade: B+
16. Jacksonville Jaguars: Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri
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Jacksonville Jaguars' head coach Jack Del Rio definitely needs some youth on his defensive line, and Aldon Smith is the answer.
Kiper, Jr. describes Smith as "a raw talent package with a lot of upside. He's a player who could easily have been a top-10 pick in 2012."
Smith will take some time to develop, but he could be an impact player in his rookie season.
This would be a smart and safe draft pick by the Jags.
Grade: B
17. New England Patriots: Cameron Jordan, DE, Cal
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Predicting Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots is near impossible. But, I think it's safe to say if Cal's Cameron Jordan slips to the Pats at 17th, he's more than gone.
Jordan will be joining Ty Warren and Vince Wilfork on New England's defensive line in their 3-4 alignment.
I don't know about you, but Jordan, Warren, and Wilfork seem like a terrifying combination for opposing quarterbacks.
Jordan fits Belichick's system and will excel and max out his talent in New England's 3-4 defense.
Grade: A
18. San Diego Chargers: Muhammad Wilkerson, DL, Temple
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Temple's Muhammad Wilkerson has been moving up on everybody's draft boards and can go as early as 18th overall to the San Diego Chargers.
According to Kiper, Jr., Wilkerson is the player the Chargers are looking for.
San Diego needs help on the defensive line, and Wilkerson brings that with his versatility and ability to play all positions along the defensive line.
Grade: B+
19. New York Giants: Mike Pouncey, OL, Florida
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Mike Pouncey is the most versatile interior offensive linemen in the 2011 draft class.
The New York Giants were exposed to having a very thin offensive line, and needed some help due to injury.
Pouncey is a great run blocker and will definitely help the Giants run the ball a lot more effectively in 2011 and many years to come.
Grade: B+
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a very young defense but could use a lot of upgrades—one being their pass rush.
Purdue's Ryan Kerrigan is one of the best pass rushing defensive ends in the 2011 draft class and would do wonders for the Bucs if he is developed correctly.
Kerrigan may not be effective right away, but if used properly, this will be a brilliant yet safe selection by Tampa Bay.
Grade: B
21. Kansas City Chiefs: Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
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UCLA's Akeem Ayers was rated as one of the draft's top outside linebackers. But, ever since Ayers' mediocre performance at the NFL combine, his stock has fallen.
Ayers has the ability to be an impact player right away, but many scouts speculate that he has already "maxed" out his potential.
Ayers is great in rushing the passer and is good dropping back in coverage.
Grade: B
22. Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
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Kiper, Jr. really likes this pick, and so do I.
Boston College's Anthony Castonzo appears to be a great fit on the Colts offensive line.
Indy's offensive line is getting rather "over-the-hill" and could use some help by inserting youth into the group.
Castonzo has the ability to play either right or left tackle, so this would be an ideal selection for the Colts.
Grade: A
23. Philadelphia Eagles: Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
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One of the reasons why quarterback Michael Vick was more effective than Kevin Kolb last season was Philadelphia's poor offensive line–Vick had the ability to leave the pocket if needed as Kolb is a pocket passer.
The Eagles' number one priority needs to be keep Vick healthy–which means protecting their start quarterback a whole lot better than last year.
Wisconsin's Gabe Carimi is a powerful yet athletic offensive linemen and could be plugged in to various spots on Philly's offensive line.
Grade: B+
24. New Orleans Saints: Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor
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A defensive tackle out of Baylor, Phil Taylor is nothing short of enormous—I'm serious. Taylor was listed as 334 lbs. at the NFL combine, and will only get bigger by adding more and more muscle.
The New Orleans Saints have an aging defensive line, and Taylor would add some much needed youth. Along with youth, Taylor brings his size and he will demand a double team each and every play.
Grade: A-
25. Seattle Seahawks: Jake Locker, QB, Washington
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I really do not like this pick at all. The Seattle Seahawks have two quality quarterbacks in Matt Hasselbeck and Charlie Whitehurst and have many other needs than quarterback.
Also, Locker should not be drafted this high as his performance last season was awful. Locker was incredibly inaccurate in college, and there is no sign he will get any better at the next level.
This is just a sad pick.
Grade: D
26. Baltimore Ravens: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
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Colorado cornerback Jimmy Smith should be a top 15 pick, but due to character issues, his stock has dropped this far.
Smith would join a Baltimore defense with a lot of personality and leadership. If Smith is kept in line, this pick would be a steal due to Smith's great talent and potential.
Grade: C+
27. Atlanta Falcons: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
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The Atlanta Falcons are a near complete team, as they went 13-3 last season.
However, one concern is improving their pass rush–they need to put pressure on the quarterback, their secondary is just average.
Iowa's Adrian Clayborn is a talented force coming off of the edge and would flourish in Atlanta's 4-3 defense.
Grade: B-
28. New England Patriots: Justin Houston, LB, Georgia
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What does Bill Belichick always look for in the draft? Value.
Georgia's Justin Houston has the most value at 28th overall.
Houston has shown that he has the ability to be a 3-4 outside linebacker or a 4-3 defensive end, and with New England, he'd be an outside linebacker.
As an outside linebacker, he'll be a great force coming off of the edge rushing the quarterback yet he has the ability to drop back into coverage.
Grade: B+
29. Chicago Bears: Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
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Kiper, Jr. describes Nate Solder as having a "frame to become a bulldozer, and the athleticism to move along the line and help on either side."
The Chicago Bears were one win away from the Super Bowl, but their quarterback, Jay Cutler got injured and left the game.
The Bears only go as far as Cutler goes, and they must keep him healthy.
Grade: A-
30. New York Jets: Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State
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New York Jets' head coach Rex Ryan is known for his blitzes and getting pressure on the quarterback. But, imagine if Ryan never had to blitz because he had a talented pass rusher—that'd be scary.
Ohio State's Cameron Heyward is one of the draft's best pass rusher, and could be a specilist and be plugged into an area of need for the Jets.
Grade: B
31. Pittsburgh Steelers: Aaron Williams, CB, Texas
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Cornerback Aaron Williams out of Texas is a great risk-taking cornerback who will go for the interception every play. That's great and all, until he gives up a touchdown.
Williams is projected to be a decent cornerback but could be converted into a safety.
He is too much talent, potential, and value to pass on. I like this pick for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Grade: B
32. Green Bay Packers: Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State
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The Green Bay Packers are the most complete team in the league, so where can they get better?
Kiper, Jr. predicts the possibility of drafting offensive linemen Derek Sherrod, who's a promising player, to replace Chad Clifton—which would be a smart move on Green Bay's part.
All and all, I'd like to see the Packers go out and draft a pass rusher, someone to take pressure of off Clay Matthews.
Grade: B-
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