More Week Six College Football Picks and Some Games Mitch Isn't Touching

What a week we have already had in college football, and we still have two more days of games to go.

At this point, you think maybe I would learn my lesson about these Thursday night games, as it was all dogs last night. We had the Blazers, and while the Utes won (while not covering), USF's pass-coverage issues were exposed, resulting in poorly timed flags and then, even worse, allowing Pitt's LeSean McCoy do his thing and run to daylight.

With a winning record for the season so far and with the busy week, we're at 2-3 but still have a solid chance to hit Saturday with a winning record for the week. We still have at least another 20 games yet to play that we've analyzed and picked.

So let's move on to tonight's picks and also talk about some of those places we may want to avoid this weekend.

Cincinnati -3 1/2 at Marshall (Friday 10/3/08, 8 EST) 1 Unit

Cincinnati is one of the teams in the country that seems to have joined the "Quarterback of the Week" club; it seems like every week they have a different passer, and while we have been pleasantly surprised so far, that pleasantness seemed to end in the fourth quarter last week when Tony Pike went down.

I have seen Brian Kelly coach for a long time, and my guess is it was just a case of a guy not being totally prepared to run Kelly's complex offense, the same reason Kelly gives for saying Notre Dame transfer Demetrius Jones isn't ready. Either way, I think the Bearcats have more than enough on both sides of the ball to cover this tiny spread against Marshall.

If Cincinnati had one of its top three quarterbacks healthy, this spread is easily double-digits, especially the way the Thundering Herd have seemed to lay down in the fourth quarter this season.

Neither of these teams have had much luck covering, but the recent trends favor Cincinnati. UC is 5-2 against the spread in its last seven against Conference USA opponents (it recently moved to the Big East), 9-3-1 against the spread when playing teams with a winning record, and 9-4 against the spread following an against-the-spread loss.

Marshall has a mix of trends, including 6-0-1 against the spread in its last seven home games against a team with a winning record, but 1-4 against the spread in its last five against the Big East (including just last week), and 1-7 against the spread in its last eight non-conference games overall.

Neither of these teams cover much on Friday nights, as UC is 1-5 against the number and Marshall is 1-4. I look for the Bearcats to play suffocating defense and create scoring opportunities for their somewhat compromised offense, and I look for the Bearcats to cover.

BYU -29 at Utah State (Friday 10/3/08, 8 EST) 1 Unit

When I see a spread this big, the first thing I do is look at the numbers behind it to see if it's justified. I have looked, and the line seems about right, a little low if anything.

Before the season started, I had BYU as one of the stronger teams and I had Utah State as one of the weaker, and while it hasn't exactly played out as I thought, it's a case where both of these teams are a little better than I thought they would be. BYU quarterback Max Hall's numbers have been staggering, throwing for 15 touchdowns and nearly 1,300 yards in less than four games.

If you think this spread is too big, here are some quick numbers to chew on: BYU has scored 103 points in its last two games, Utah state gave up 124 points combined against Utah and Oregon. This could get really ugly.

The trends don't look any prettier for the Aggies. Utah State is 2-7 against the spread in its last nine home games, 8-19-1 against the spread in its last 28 non-conference games, and and 0-4 against the spread at home when playing teams with a winning record.

BYU on the other hand is 7-3 against the spread when playing teams with a losing record, 5-2 against the spread in its last seven overall, and 10-3-1 in their last 14 following a cover. I look for Hall to add to his Heisman-like numbers and coast to an easy cover.

See what games Mitch isn't touching and another pick at The College Football Place.