Fantasy Baseball: 2011 American League Predictions

We are now two short days from Opening Day. How about some predictions to get your season started right? Here is my "Starting 9" with thoughts on the American League.


Michael Brantley will be one of the hottest pickups in late-April and early-May. He had a tough 2010, being demoted on several occasions and battling injury issues all year. Now that he is healthy and has a steady job, he should end up with much better numbers. Brantley has speed and should hit for a solid average. 30-plus steals and a .280 average could make him an AL version of Nyjer Morgan, minus the crazy.

Fantasy owners are wasting their time drafting Jed Lowrie. I know that he provided some impressive offense in limited time last year, but the fact of the matter is that Marco Scutaro is the starting shortstop. Lowrie will get time at second, shortstop and third to spell the starters, but it is only going to amount to three starts a week at best. He is also still an injury risk, as he cannot keep himself in the lineup. His .287 mark and nine home runs in less than 200 at-bats were nice, but he has not done enough this spring to earn a full-time job. With Jose Iglesias on the horizon, you have to wonder if he ever will. Unless there is an injury to someone else, Lowrie should not be on your radar.

The Blue Jays will be a surprising source of power. Obviously, Aaron Hill is a threat for 25 home runs, but there are plenty of others that will fit that bill as well. Even though I believe Jose Bautista is not going to repeat, he should find his way to 25-30 home runs and you could see 20 from J.P. Arencibia. Factor in returns of Adam Lind and Travis Snider and this is a team that has a lot of power up and down the lineup. And a lot of it is coming cheap.

No one on the Mariners will score 90 runs. For whatever reason, I still do not see that offense as better than last season. Ichiro would have to score 20 percent more times than he did last year while Chone Figgins would need nearly a 50 percent increase to hit that number. The middle part of the lineup simply has not improved enough to see that happening. It will mitigate the value of these two players in particular.

Brian Matusz will be a top-20 pitcher in the American League. Probably not earth-shattering news here, but Matusz needs to be mentioned. He has tremendous stuff; he throws hard and is able to locate his pitches effectively. If an owner only looks at the surface numbers, they miss the important pieces. Matusz, over his final 11 starts, posted a 2.18 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 52 strikeouts in 62 innings with seven wins.

Gordon Beckham and Alexei Ramirez will be the second-most prolific middle infield combination. They only finish number two because of how prolific Robinson Cano can be and how steady Derek Jeter is. Look at the numbers we have seen from Ramirez in his first three seasons. He is nearly a lock for 20 home runs and 80 RBI to go with a near .290 average. Factor that in with a rebound year for Beckham that could also reach 20 home runs and 80 RBI and you have one of the best combinations in baseball. Both are bargains on the draft boards as well.

Joe Mauer will not be the best fantasy catcher in the American League, forget in all of baseball. He continues to get drafted highly, but only once in five seasons of playing better than 130 games has he cracked 90 RBI and only twice has he had double-digit home runs (13 in 2006, 28 in 2008). Yes, he will hit .325, but Victor Martinez will hit .300 and double Mauer in home runs while driving in 100. Add an injury risk flag and you should have owners shying away. Instead, Mauer keeps going high. Even Matt Wieters will push Mauer this year. Write that down.

Nelson Cruz will be healthy this year…and a force. I trust Jason Grey. When he tells me that Cruz went through a program this offseason to change to a running style that puts less pressure on the hamstrings that plagued him last season, I think that means good news. Cruz had 22 home runs and 17 steals in fewer than 400 at-bats last season and he will be bettering those numbers in 2011. Another guy to watch on the Rangers is Mitch Moreland and I believe Alexi Ogando is closing by June once the Rangers realize the depth of their pitching problem.

Oakland’s pitching staff will rival the Mulder/Hudson/Zito days. Trevor Cahill won 18 games last season largely thanks to an improved sinker and he could win 15-18 more again this year with a sub-1.25 WHIP and sub-3.25 ERA. Many are touting Gio Gonzalez as a threat for 200 strikeouts. Brett Anderson is fully healthy and dominated last year when he was on the mound. He could figure in for 25-30 starts and another strong WHIP and ERA that would rival the 1.19 and 2.80 (respectively) that he put up last year. Even Dallas Braden had 11 wins and a 3.50 ERA with 1.16 WHIP last year. This could easily be the second-best rotation in the American League and provide value somewhere in all formats.

Predictions

AL MVP – Robinson Cano

AL ROY – Jeremy Hellickson

AL Cy Young – Jon Lester

Division Winners – Red Sox, Tigers, Rangers

Wild Card – Yankees

Fantasy Bust – Elvis Andrus. Just going too high for me to like him well enough.

Fantasy Steal – David Ortiz, Matusz, and Gio Gonzalez