Oregon-USC: "All We Need Is a Little Execution, and a Lot Of Luck"

Is it just me, or does every week seem like an entirely different college football season now?

Two weeks ago, Oregon looked like a bunch of Ducks with their heads cut off running around the field against Boise State, and the USC Trojans were the invincible lords of the west.

After Saturday, Oregon got their groove back against the Cougars, while the Trojans were shown to be mortal by a very physical Oregon State team in Corvallis.

This Saturday afternoon in the Coliseum could decide the inside track to the Pac-10 title. Despite their strong performance against the Trojans, the Beavers have already lost a game in conference, and one more slip-up would leave them all but eliminated from the title picture.

With that in mind, the Trojans could still win the Pac-10 for the umpteenth time in a row by running the table.

Oregon, on the other hand, is 2-0 in the Pac-10 despite their meltdown at home against the Broncos. If they beat USC, even a letdown against Cal or Arizona State would still leave them in the thick of the race.

Ducks fans are looking for any reason to give themselves a good feeling about their team having to play an opponent with the most raw talent in the nation away from the comforts of Autzen Stadium.

Some might be tempted to point out the similarities between the upcoming game and last year’s successful trip to Ann Arbor. Like the Wolverines, the Trojans are a team that was extremely highly regarded coming off a humbling loss to a less talented opponent.

Unfortunately for the Ducks, that is where the similarities end.

USC’s isn’t in the midst of a losing streak across seasons that will lead to a coaching change—they just hit one bump in the road. The Trojan players know that there is still a lot for them to play for. After all, they recovered from losses to Stanford and the Ducks last year to win the conference.

Also, like the Ducks after the Boise State game, they are pissed off and looking to take it out on somebody. Unfortunately for Oregon, they are the only other team on the field.

For all the publicity USC’s handful of losses in recent years has garnered, none of them has been by more than seven points, including last Thursday. USC has had more than a full week of practice to get ready for the Ducks and are hungry for redemption from last week and revenge for last year in Eugene.

If Oregon does pull off a win, you can bet your bottom dollar it will go to the wire.

The big question for Oregon’s offense, as it has been all season, is the passing game. Justin Roper’s knee has healed enough for him to play, but he was battling the flu earlier this week, and it is not known how much practice time he will get before Saturday. If the coaches decide he cannot go on Saturday, they will turn to Jeremiah Masoli.

Masoli certainly didn’t have a bad game against Washington State: 9 of 16 for 161 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. However, he completed passes to a grand total of three different receivers, and his completion percentage certainly didn’t break any records for efficiency.

The Ducks' best hope with the ball is to try play as physically and hungrily as the Beavers did and run it up the gut. That means Blount going over and through the Trojans and Johnson making only quick jukes and then getting north and south, rather than cutting laterally as he likes to do.

With the team speed USC has on defense, even without Rey Maualuga, running laterally and attacking the edges simply isn’t going to do much good.

The Ducks' defense must apply consistent pressure to Mark Sanchez, something they haven’t done in most of their games. For all the sacks Oregon’s Will Tukuafu, Nick Reed, and friends have gotten, the pass rush has tended to be sporadic, leveling the quarterback one play and giving them enough time to make a sandwich the next.

Leave USC’s playmakers alone in the backfield to find a receiver downfield or a running lane, and their talent will put the game away in a hurry.

Given the damage USC’s tight ends and backs can do downfield, the Ducks have to get better pass coverage from their linebackers. The Ducks have done a very poor job executing their zone coverage schemes, even against Washington State and Utah State. Players seem to get to their spots and take root, rather than moving to players coming into their area of responsibility.

If Nick Allioti and his staff can’t fix the problems with this defensive set, it would probably be best to stick to man to man and take their chances being predictable.

For USC to recover their swagger against the Ducks, the first thing they need to do is not beat themselves. Turnovers and penalties gave the Beavers the chance to finish them off last week, and it is imperative they deny Oregon the same opportunities.

The Ducks' spread option offense lives on big plays, not steady drives. The Trojans should keep the Ducks in front of them and rely on Oregon’s young quarterbacks and inconsistent receivers to stall drives before they reach the end zone.

If USC can keep the Ducks' offense at bay and dominate time of possession, their talented playmakers will do the rest.

Oregon’s best hope to pull off the upset is to come out strong early and get some big plays on special teams to put the offense and defense in favorable positions against the Trojans.

If they can build a lead, or at least stay even, with the Trojans through the first half, they might just be able to hold off a run by USC late. If the Ducks fall behind, it will be a tall order for such a young team to mount a comeback against an opponent with greater depth on the road.

USC will win if they put distance between themselves and the Ducks, and probably if they can force the game to come down to a field goal, given Matt Evenson’s struggles this season.

Oregon won’t have as many opportunities against the Trojans as they did against any team they have played so far, so to have a chance they must take advantage of all the ones they get. That means no dropped passes, no missed field goals, and no leaving USC ball carriers alone in space.

I make no secret of the fact that I am a rabid Oregon Ducks fan, and my prediction for the score reflects that. It is a prediction based on faith in one’s team, not cold hard facts. If I had to put a percentage on the odds of this prediction being right, though, it would probably be less than 50 percent.

Still, much stranger things than the Ducks winning in the Coliseum happen almost every week in college football.

MY VERDICT: Oregon Ducks 28, Southern California Trojans 27