A New Way to Rank Quality Wins and Losses in College Football

It won't be long before the arrival of the end of season beauty contest among one-loss teams.

I am working on a system that might help settle the arguments, which usually revolve around strength of schedule.

As far as I know, the only statistical measurement for strength of schedule is the Sagarin SOS computer ranking.

This is helpful, but I've never talked to anyone who understands how it is calculated. This makes it kind of difficult to bring into discussions at the end of the year.

I am proposing a new system to examine strength of schedule. It isn't meant to replace Sagarin or be the final word on anything.

It is meant to be an additional method to assess which team is most deserving at the end of the year.

I intend to measure the quality of each team's wins and losses quantitatively. I will do this by awarding points for wins and losses based on the schedule below.

Please note that this system is a work in progress and I welcome suggestions as to how to improve it.

3 points for a win against a team ranked 1-8
2 points for a win against a team ranked 8-16
1 point for a win against a team ranked 16-25

-3 points for a loss to an unranked team
-2 points for a loss to a team ranked 10-25
-1 points for a loss to a team ranked 1-10

Positive points are doubled for wins on the road and negative points are doubled for losses at home. Points gained or lost on neutral fields are adjusted by 50 percent.

For example, if you beat the No. 1 team at home you get three points. If you beat them at a neutral site you get 4 1/2 points. If you beat them on the road you get six points.

Another example, if you lose to the 20th ranked team on the road, you lose two points. If lose to them at home, the lost points are doubled to four points.

Also, I am adjusting some scores by a single discretionary "style point" for very close losses, very lopsided victories, or if a very underrated or overrated team was involved.

For example, I gave Alabama an extra style point for dominating Georgia. I also gave Florida an extra style point for losing a squeaker to Ole Miss.

I subtracted a style point from Alabama for their win over Clemson, because right now it looks like Clemson was vastly overrated at the time they played.

Here are the results. The point total includes points given for wins against ranked teams minus points subtracted for losses against ranked and unranked teams.

I apologize for the formatting, but this is the only way I can figure out how to construct a readable table on the blog.

Alabama - 9 points ---- W Clemson (9) neut site; W Georgia (3) road
LSU ----- 4 points ---- W Auburn (10) road
S. Fla--- 2 points ---- W Kansas (13) home
Oklah --- 1 point ----- W TCU (24) home
Misso --- 1 point ----- W Illinois (20) home
PennSt -- 1 point ----- W Illinois (22) home
BYU ----- 0 points----- haven't played ranked team
Ttech --- 0 points ---- haven't played ranked team
Texas --- 0 points ---- haven’t played ranked team
Socal --- (1) points--- W OSU (5) home ; L Oreg St. road
OSU ----- (2) points--- L USC (1) road
Georgia - (3) points--- L Alabama (8) home
Florida - (5) points--- L Ole Miss home


Style point adjustments

minus 1 Alabama for win over Clemson - Clemson overrated

plus 1 Alabama for win over Georgia - lopsided

plus 1 USC win over Ohio State - lopsided

minus 1 USC loss to Oregon State - relatively lopsided

minus 1 OSU loss to USC - lopsided

minus 1 Georgia loss to Alabama - lopsided

plus 1 Florida loss to Ole Miss - very close

These point totals may be backward adjusted later in the season based on how the teams finish. For example, Alabama was awarded three points for beating Clemson, which was ranked 9 at the time. If Clemson ends up 4-9 or something at the end of the year, I will award fewer points for Alabama's victory over them the first week of the season.

Clemson's already been shaky enough that I've already penalized Alabama one style point. If Clemson's season continues to spiral downward, I might subtract one more.

Likewise, for example when Georgia beat Arizona State, the Sun Devils were unranked, so Georgia got zero points.

But if Arizona State ends up 10-2 and wins the Pac-10, I will retroactively award a point or two to Georgia for that victory earlier in the year, since ASU was clearly a better team than their ranking indicated at the time Georgia and Arizona played.

There has to be some subjectivity in this, but I think at the end of the year, the point totals are going to give a pretty good indication of which team had the best quality wins and losses.

I would appreciate any feedback anyone has or suggestions for improvement.