College Football Landscape Is Calm: The Big 12 Is Safe (for Now)

Last summer the college football world was shaken up a bit. When the dust settled, only minor changes had occurred, although things could have turned out much differently. The Big 12 shifted from 12 teams to 10, the Big Ten added a team to get to 12 and the Pac-10 expanded and rebranded the Pac-12. The Big East also added TCU to get to 9 teams and appear poised to add another. None of this is news to most of us, simply a recap.

Not lost in the chaos of last summer was the fact that the Big 12 seemed destined to be destroyed as rumors had Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Oklahoma State all heading to the newly formed Pac-16. Maybe the remaining teams would find a BCS home, maybe not.

This summer there is going to be some more movement as Villanova appears to be ready to make the jump from the Championship Subdivision to the Bowl Championship Series; a formal decision is expected sometime next month. I don’t think Big 12 fans are going to experience another summer of anxiety.

I’m not saying that the Big 12 is the healthiest conference in college football (clearly the opposite is true), but contrary to what some believe, it doesn’t appear to be going anywhere anytime soon. I want to take a look at the scenarios that could spell the end of the Big 12 (in no particular order) and examine the likelihood of each.

1) Mega conferences form.

I think we all remember this Big 12 doomsday scenario: the SEC, Big Ten, and Pac-16 join a Big East/ACC hybrid, expand to sixteen teams and clean up what’s left of the Big 12.

There has to be a motive for a conference to expand. For the Big Ten, last summer the motive was simple: they wanted a twelfth team so that they could add a conference championship game. Unless I’m missing something, there really isn’t a motive for any other BCS conferences to expand (with the exception of the Big East, which I will discuss). I’ll agree that there is attractiveness in several Big 12 programs—some of which could be targets for the SEC, Pac-16, Big Ten, or even Big East expansion—but there are also negatives to major expansion.

Going to a 16, or even a 14-game schedule would create problems. If you assume that teams want to play 8 or 9 conference games per year and play each of the other teams in their 7 or 8-team division on top of that, then that means they will only play a maximum of three teams in the other division per season.

For example, if you assume that a conference goes to 16 members (two, 8 school divisions) and each team plays nine conference games per season, every team would play the others in their own division once, leaving only two opportunities to play teams in the other division. In this scenario, smaller rivalries between schools in separate divisions (such as Florida and Alabama) will only meet in the regular season twice in every eight-year span, likely either in back-to-back years with a six-year hiatus or once every four years. Either way, each would only host the other once every eight years.

This wouldn’t necessarily be a big enough deterrent to stop larger conferences from forming if realignment gets out of control, but I don’t see the Big Ten, SEC, Pac-12, Big East and ACC proactively getting together and making this happen. One would have to expand to 14 or 16 teams and the others would quickly scramble up teams to stay competitive.

This scenario also assumes that the Big East and ACC can agree to merge. Currently the ACC has 12 teams and the Big East has nine. In order to get to 16, the newly formed conference would need to shed 5 teams (6, if Villanova leaves the FCS). The SEC and Big Ten may be relied on to take some of these teams, but chances are that a peaceful resolution will be hard to come by, unless one or two schools volunteer to be left out of the BCS. One of these conferences will have to dissolve, and at this point it doesn’t seem that either is on the verge of collapse.

2) Texas goes independent.

They signed monster deal on a new TV contract, which defiantly puts them in position to explore independence down the road. There is no doubt that Texas will have several headline games on their schedule every year, but will they be able to set a schedule tough enough to compare to the gauntlet that is going to be run through by teams in the BCS conferences?

Will they be able to hang on to annual rivalry games with Oklahoma and Texas A&M? Will enough of the current Big 12 teams be willing to keep playing Texas if they depart from the league? Will they consistently be able to schedule teams from the Pac-12, SEC and Big Ten?

If they go independent and the mega conferences form, it’s safe to assume that nine-game conferences will be the norm and programs could shift to a softer non-conference schedule; teams may not be willing to lock up one of three non-conference games on the Longhorns every year. An annual game with Notre Dame has the potential to turn into a great rivalry, and they’d like to think that the Sooners and Aggies would hold a spot for them. BYU, Army and Navy are other obvious opponents.

Let’s look at the schedules of the other independents.

Notre Dame has been without a conference forever and has rivalries with several BCS teams (USC, Michigan, Michigan State and Purdue, among others) who they can easily put on their schedule every year. Ten of Notre Dame's twelve games are against BCS opponents in 2011, with the remaining games against Air Force and Navy. It will be hard for Texas to get this type of schedule. BYU on the other hand is playing only five BCS opponents in their first year as an independent, and only has three games, plus Notre Dame on a schedule that is already 75 percent complete for 2012. Is this what an independent Texas schedule will look like? It’s unlikely to think that anyone who is already on Notre Dame’s schedule annually would want to add Texas as well.

The Longhorns will pay a lot of attention to how BYU fares as an independent. If they are able to recruit good players, play quality opponents and make a decent amount of money, then this option will become a lot more attractive.

3) The Big East expands to twelve teams.

This will not cause a major realignment fracas unless the Big East goes after Big 12 teams, which would almost certainly bring an end to the conference. If two teams bolt the Big 12, Texas is as good as gone and one or both of the above scenarios will play out, with the fate of the remaining seven teams falling in the hands of the other BCS conferences expanding from 12 teams.

The only saving grace would be if the remaining Big 12 could bring over teams from the Mountain West, Conference-USA, or another non-BCS conference to fill in the gap and maintain their BCS bid, although the competitive edge would be long gone and the longevity of this conference would be in serious doubt.

If the Big East finds two more geographically appropriate teams (from the MAC, Sun Belt, Conference USA, the FCS, or possibly Notre Dame), the Big 12 could remain stable for a while.