NCAA College Basketball: Seven Obstacles on the Road to the Final Four

As a contributor to www.bracketanalytics.com, we spend a lot of time debating accuracy and precision in determining who will advance in our tournament bracket and why.  Teams misbehave with their on-court play and the Selection Committee misbehaves in their seeding. 

Regardless, there are some trends that are indicative of deep tournament runs.  Here is what we key in on for selecting teams likely to make the Final Four.

7. Are You a Mid-Major?

Kent Horner/Getty Images

SAN DIEGO, CA - FEBRUARY 26: Jimmer Fredette #32 of the Brigham Young Cougars looks to his bench during the second half against the San Diego State Aztecs at Cox Arena on February 26, 2011 in San Diego, California. BYU beat SDSU 80-67. (Photo by Kent Hor

Mid-majors have only taken up 11 out of the 104 Final Four slots in the past 26 years.   To put that number in context, that is the number of years that a No. 3 seed has lost to a No. 14 seed in the first round.  Three of those teams have since been absorbed by the Big East (Louisville, Cincinnati and Marquette).

These numbers do not bode well for the BYU’s and San Diego State’s of this world.

6. Is Your RPI Greater Than 30?

Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images

1 Apr 2000: Head coach Dick Bennett of Wisconsin shouts out instructions to his team during the semifinal round of the NCAA Final Four against Michigan State at the RCA Dome in Indianapolis, Indiana. DIGITAL IMAGE Mandatory Credit: Jed Jacobsohn/ALLSPOR

This number may seem high, but there are several teams that have made the Final Four with an RPI higher than you may expect.  The RPI has been around for 17 years and five of these years, a Final Four participant has had an RPI of 23 or higher.

Only two teams with an RPI greater than 30 have ever made the Final Four.  Coincidentally, it happened in the same year in the 1999-2000 season (Wisconsin, 32; North Carolina, 41).    11 out of 17 years, three of the Final Four teams have had an RPI of 10 or better.  Conversely only six out of 17 years have the entire RPI top 10 won in the first round.  

5. Were You There Last Year?

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

CHAPEL HILL, NC - MARCH 05: Head coach Roy Williams of the North Carolina Tar Heels celebrates winning the ACC Regular Season Championship as they defeated the Duke Blue Devils 81-67 at the Dean E. Smith Center on March 5, 2011 in Chapel Hill, North Caro

10 of the past 104 Final Four teams were not in last year’s tournament.  However, 36 percent of the time (nine out of 26 seasons) , there has been a team in the Final Four, that wasn’t even in the tournament last year.  It last happened in 2006, so we could be due this year (advantage North Carolina).

Only the 2003 Syracuse and the 1986 Louisville teams won it all without being in the tournament the year before.  Both had big stars in Carmelo Anthony and Pervis Ellison, respectively.  Syracuse also had the luxury of playing their regional in Albany, NY.

4. Road Record < 60%

Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images

PORTLAND, OR - NOVEMBER 27: Head Coach Mike Krzyzewski of the Duke Blue Devils talks Kyle Singler #12 against the Oregon Ducks on November 27, 2010 at the Rose Garden in Portland, Oregon. (Photo by Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images)

Teams that can’t get it done on the road are less likely to advance far into the NCAA Tournament.  Duke, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Wisconsin, Kansas State, Kentucky and Louisville all have records on the road at or below 60 percent, so they are vulnerable to a deep run based on 26 years of tournament history.

3. Where Do You Get Your Points From?

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

LOUISVILLE, KY - DECEMBER 08: Ben Hansbrough #23 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish shoots the ball during the game against the Kentucky Wildcats in the 2010 DIRECTV SEC/BIG EAST Invitational at Freedom Hall on December 8, 2010 in Louisville, Kentucky.

You can’t be too dependent on your guards and forwards, and you can’t be too dependent on where you get your points from.  Teams that get a lot of points from the free-throw line are dependent on the refs calling a game favorable to their style.  Likewise, teams that are too dependent on the three-point field goal may win any given game, but are less likely to string four wins together against increasingly tough competition and in domed stadiums where depth perception problems kick in.

According to www.bracketanalytics.com, in the past 12 years, only four teams (eight percent) that get more than 30.5 percent of their points from three-point field goals, have advanced to the Final Four, and only one has won it (Duke 2001).  Duke succeeded because their points came from Shane Battier, Chris Duhon, Jason Williams and Mike Dunleavy, so they weren’t dependent on one or two shooting stars.

This year, teams like Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Louisville, Duke and Arizona are very dependent on the three ball.  Not surprisingly, these are many of the teams that also showed up with poor road records.

Different rims, different background, unfamiliar depth perception, unfriendly crowd all result in poorer shooting.

2. Have You Been to the Final Four Before?

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

CINCINNATI, OH - DECEMBER 9: Shelvin Mack #1 and Matt Howard #54 of the Butler Bulldogs come off the floor during a timeout in the game against the Xavier Musketeers at Cintas Center on December 9, 2010 in Cincinnati, Ohio. Xavier defeated Butler 51-49. (

There have been 104 Final Four slots in the past 26 years.  They have been filled by 40 schools.  25 schools have been more than once.  Let’s face it.  Some schools just care more.  This doesn’t give us confidence that Pitt, Notre Dame or Purdue will get there this year. 

In the past decade, we have added Maryland, George Mason, Butler, West Virginia, Marquette and Texas to this list.  That’s six teams in 40 slots.  With Butler and West Virginia crashing the party last year, it may be a year where we regress to the mean and see all four teams with Final Four experience.

1. How Many Points Do You Score and Give Up Per Possession?

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

COLUMBUS, OH - MARCH 06: Jared Sullinger #0 of the Ohio State Buckeyes reacts after a first half dunk while playing the Wisconsin Badgers on March 6, 2011 at the Value City Arena in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

Ken Pomeroy at www.kenpom.com has devoted a lot of his work to teams and the number of points per possession they score and give up.  It has been a strong indicator in tournament performance.  When you look at this statistic over time, you need to be ranked in the top 17 based on historical distributions.

Teams have been ranked as high as 23^rd, but you do lose some precision if you stretch this outer limit.