NL Dogfight – September 27th

With only two games left in the regular season, it’s the Mets who wake up this morning and find themselves on the outside looking in, while the Phillies clinched a tie for the NL East, and the Brewers are one step closer to making the post season for the first time since 1982.

Recap of Friday’s Action:

On a misty night in South Philadelphia, the Phillies got on the board early. Ryan Howard’s three-run home run (his major league-leading 48th), in the first inning, gave the Phillies a quick 3-0 lead. The Nationals got on the board in the second when Elijah Dukes scored on a Luke Montz single, making the score 3-1. In the second the Phillies added to their lead when Chase Utley hit a bases clearing double, and scored when Howard doubled, giving the Phillies a commanding 7-1 lead. The Nats scored two more in the fifth (courtesy of a Ryan Howard error), and one in the six to make it a three-run game. The Phillies scored their final run in the eighth when Utley came home on a wild pitch.

Starter Joe Blanton, had a strong outing, giving up five hits over six innings. All four runs were on his watch, but only one was earned (Kory Casto’s six inning home run). The other three were resulted on a passed ball and an error.

Things didn’t go as well in Flushing. The Marlins got on top early, and the Mets were never able to recover. Hanley Ramirez led the game off with single. After stealing second, he scored on a Jeff Baker double. Baker then scored on a Dan Uggla ground out, giving the Fish and early 2-0 lead. The Mets threatened in the bottom of the first, loading the bases. But the inning came to an end when Ryan Church flied out to center field. The score remained 2-0 until the sixth when Josh Willingham took Mike Pelfrey deep on a shot just inside the left field foul pole, giving the Marlins a 3-0 lead. The Mets got a run back in the bottom of the inning. Brian Schnieder’s ground out plated Church, cutting the Marlins lead to only two. The Marlins added two more in the seventh. Brett Carroll scored on a Hanley Ramirez single that was misplayed by Danny Murphy. Ramirez came in to score when Aaron Heilman walked Willingham with the bases loaded. The Marlins capped the scoring in the eighth on a Jorge Cantu single.

Marlins starter Chirs Volstad kept the Mets guessing all night. Volstad gave up one run (unearned), and five hits over six innings. Pelfrey was sharp for the Mets allowing three runs in six innings. Unfortunately the Mets offense could never get anything going, and the bullpen was unable to keep the game close. The Mets used seven relievers in the final three innings.

In Milwaukee, the Brewers faced the Cubs in a must win game, and brought everything they had. After falling behind in the second, when Jim Edmonds gave the Cubs a 1-0 lead on a solo home run, the Brewers tied it up when Jason Kendall doubled home Corey Hart. The score remained tied 1-1 until the sixth. Largely because both teams’ starters, Jeff Suppan and Ryan Dempster keeping the opposition guessing.  When they missed, the defense helped them out.

In the sixth the Brewers took the lead when Ray Durham scored on Hart’s single. The Brewers put the game out of reach in the seventh when Rickie Weeks hit a three-run home run off Chad Gaudin. The final: 6-1 in favor of the Brewers.

After yesterday’s action, the Phillies lead the NL East by two games over the Mets, and Brewers lead the Mets by one game in the Wild Card.

Magic Numbers:

Phillies - 1 Division
Mets - 4 Wild Card, 5 Division
Brewers - 2 Wild Card

Saturday’s Preview:

Cubs @ Brewers – In a week, the Brewers have gone from a team on the verge of elimination, to a club that could clinch the playoffs by days end. Another win this afternoon, coupled with a Mets loss, the Brewers snap a twenty-six year postseason drought.

Ben Sheets is scheduled to be the guy the Brewers look to pitch them into the playoffs. Sheets (13-8, 2.98), one of the National League’s most talented pitchers, but once again has had another season where he’s dealt with injury woes. Sheets hasn’t started since September 17th, in which he only lasted two innings (against the Cubs), due to elbow pain. While the official word from the Brewers is that Sheets will start this afternoon, interim manager Dale Sveum has said it would take a “small miracle” for Sheet to go today. Don’t be surprised to see Sheets get the start today. In a pennant race “small miracles” seem to happen.

Ted Lilly will start for the Cubs, in search of his 17th win of the season. Lilly is 0-1 with a 5.91 ERA in two starts against the Brewers this season, but hasn’t faced them since June. Lilly has heated up lately and is 3-0 in his last three starts. He’s allowed only five runs in the last 23 innings.

Nationals @ Phillies – The Phillies already have clinched a tie with the Mets for the NL East. So even if they lose the final two games while the Mets win, they’ll face off for a one game playoff on Monday. That’s the worst case scenario, which is a scenario the Phillies don’t want to think about it. They win today, and they’re in.

Jamie Moyer is the guy the Phillies will be looking to clinch their second consecutive National League East title. At 45, Moyer is arguably the Phillies best starter this season. His 15 wins lead the Phillies, and his 3.70 ERA ranks second to Cole Hamels. Moyer has always been strong against the Nationals, going 10-4 with a 2.89 ERA, included 2-0 this season.

John Lannan will take the mound for the Nationals. Lannan is 9-14 on the season, but his 3.84 ERA reflects more that his 14 losses are more due to lack of run support, not poor pitching. Phillies fans remember Lannan for being the pitcher who broke Chase Utley’s hand least season when he hit him with a fastball. Lannan is 1-1 in his last two starts with a 1.29 ERA.

Marlins @ Mets – The Mets are on the verge of a second consecutive collapse in September. This isn’t exactly what Omar Minaya wanted to show ownership after they rewarded him with a four-year extension. Even though it doesn’t look good Mets fans, don’t take the plunge into the East River just yet. It’s not over. Stranger things have happened in playoff races (remember the Rockies last season), so until it’s officially over, continue to fight. In saying that, the Mets need to do their part and go out and win.

Given the Mets position, they are a desperate team. Desperate times call for desperate measures, which is why Johan Santana, only on three days rest, will get the ball. This is the exactly the reason the Mets went out and got the two-time Cy Young Award winner; to win the big game. Santana will be shooting for his 16th win of the season, against a Marlins team he’s had a ton of success against. Santana is 4-0 with a 2.49 ERA in four career starts against the Marlins.

Ricky Nolsaco will start for the Marlins. Nolasco came from no where this season, and became the Marlins ace. Nolasco will also be gunning for his 16h win of the season. Nolasco has had mixed results against the Mets this season, going 1-1 with a 3.71 ERA.