MLB Fantasy Baseball: Draft This, Not That—Part 7
After looking at outfielders that generate speed in our last installment of this series, this time we will take a look at a more balanced outfielder—the jack of all trades. This outfielder does not tend to be your first selection or anchor at the position, but they can provide solid value because of what they produce across a variety of categories. The two players today do just that for fantasy owners but at very different spots in the draft.
Check this out:
Player A: 93 runs, 25 HR, 91 RBI, 18 SB, .282 AVG, 84 ADP
Player B: 81 runs, 22 HR, 90 RBI, 22 SB, .300 AVG, 26 ADP
The difference between these two players comes in two spots. First is average. Immediately, one would give the advantage to Player B. Peel the onion a bit though. That 18-point difference over 600 at-bats translates to 12 hits over the course of a season. That is not even one per fantasy week.
The other variance is in draft position. Sixty spots equates to at least five rounds in 12-team leagues and six rounds in 10-team formats. Admittedly, this is another spot where I find myself biased against Player B. Simply put, there is an infatuation that simply does not balance out in my book.
Player B here is Shin-Soo Choo. For some, he comes across as worth the selection. This past year was his second season putting up 20/20 numbers, but he has not shown that there is tremendous upside beyond what he is producing. His numbers from 2009 to 2010 were better but largely identical. There is nothing wrong with solid production, but that is not where you win leagues.
Given that Choo is being brought on slowly with elbow concerns and he has had Tommy John surgery in the past, owners should keep an eye on him early in the spring heading into drafts as well. Players like Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier are going in spots surrounding Choo, and owners would seem to be able to do much better in terms of finding an anchor to their fantasy outfield selecting them.
Player A is not the hot name, but Hunter Pence has done plenty for the recovery of his image thanks to his 2010 performance. Pence has hit 25 home runs in each of the last three seasons and hit .282 in each of the last two. He provides very much the same consistency that an owner is getting out of Choo at a cheaper price.
Owners often penalize Pence because he has not lived up to the player that we saw in the 109 games during the 2007 season when he hit better than .300 and had 17 home runs in just 456 at-bats. We need to stop doing that as a collective group.
His baserunning ability continues to improve as evidenced by increased steals with increased success rate over this stretch of three years as well. Pence is a legit balanced threat that owners can use as a No. 2 or No. 3 outfielder while not fretting over his production levels.
Neither player will hurt a fantasy owner should one select him. Both Choo and Pence have proven that they can produce effectively at a high level over a multi-year period of time. The key for an owner is understanding what they are getting with the pick. Neither is a superstar, though both have the potential.
Only the person making the pick can determine if a second- or third-round selection of Shin-Soo Choo provides them the appropriate value. Knowing that you can get similar numbers six rounds later may sway that decision in one direction or the other. That is what this whole series is all about.
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