The Top 5 Schools Who Won't Top Their 2011 Recruiting Classes in 2012
In recruiting, you can see a program just get white-hot on the trail one year and come the next they see a dip in the rankings and fail to land a top notch class. Other times, its just a numbers game where a team signed a big class in the previous year and just can't sign another large class the following year due to the lack of scholarships available.
In any case, a reversal of fortune is a norm in the college football recruiting world and it can happen to any program at anytime. A current year's group of players just don't like a your favorite school as much as a whole as the previous year's crop. Depth charts get stacked too much, a coaching change happens, or a team has a bad season that forces a negative reaction from recruits.
While there are some schools who certainly will see a rise in 2012 recruiting, there are also an array of schools who will see a dip in this recruiting cycle.
Here are the very top 5 that will fall.
5. Auburn
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While I still very much think Auburn will land its share of blue chippers in 2012 recruiting, I just don't see them having such a stellar class this cycle. Tiger fans, hear me out.
For starters, Gene Chizik has signed two phenomenal classes in his two years at the helm. What does that mean? The Tiger roster is stocked with young talent, that's what it means. Recruits do like to see where they can get early playing time, and with so much young talent on the Auburn Depth chart, it may be tough to get some playing time early in your career from the 2012 class and beyond.
Secondly, the Tigers will be young on the field in 2011 and s step back is expected as the young talent gets its feet wet. Recruits do look at how well a team does on the field and a 6-6 season will not help attract recruits.
While I think Auburn has a chance to compete for SEC titles long term, this 2011 season and 2012 recruiting cycle may have see the champs take a step back before the leap forward again.
4. South Carolina
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No, I'm not putting the Gamecocks on this list because they can't sign Jadeveon Clowney again. This is more of a numbers vs. rankings game. Steve Spurrier signed a 32 player class this past 2011 recruiting haul. 32 players.
While I value quality over quanity in my recruiting class ranking, part of why the Gamecocks wer ein the top 20 nationally in recruiting rankings was because of the quanity of the recruits they had committed to come to Columbia.
I sincerely doubt Spurrier and Co. can haul in another 32 players again, as that would be 64 new players on his roster in two years. Combine that with South Carolina routinely being a bit of an after thought to recruits in SEC country not named Gilmore, Jeffrey, Clowney, Matthews or Shell when compared to Alabama, Florida, LSU and Georgia and you reason to believe that South Carolina may not top their 2011 recruiting class in 2012.
3. Florida State
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This isn't so much a knock on FSU as it is the expectation of the re-rise of Florida and Miami on the recruiting trail.
As with Auburn, Florida State goes into year three of their head coach, Jimbo Fisher, and his era and have signed two great recruiting classes in the consecutive seasons. Fisher has re-stocked the Seminole depth chart with young talent and rival Miami and Florida surely will use this against him and FSU in recruiting.
It seems like the the Big Three in Florida always go through cycles of dominance on the recruiting trail. In the 90s it was FSU and from the mid 90s to early 2000s it was Miami. The mid to late 2000s saw Florida dominate.
Florida saw a bit of a dip last year, but Will Muschamp and Charlie Weis are two of the best recruiters in the country. Al Golden's energy and charisma can not be spoken on enough and will help him immensely recruiting for The U.
Some players FSU will be after will take a look at all of the young talent at FSU and get enamored with Florida and Miami and spurn the 'Noles for one of the other big Florida schools.
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2. Alabama
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Ok, you've heard it. I've heard it. We all have heard it. The whispers continue of the notion of Alabama over-signs recruiting classes.
Nick Saban has quietly over signed a few recruiting classes and this may be the year it catches up to him and the Crimson Tide. Many times we forget that a portion of hauling in a good recruiting class is the numbers game of scholarships available + seniors graduating + other players leaving your program every year + scholarships given to walk ons.
Saban has drawn criticism from various outlets for the practice of over-signing recruiting classes. Plus, it is always tough to duplicate a No.1 recruiting class two years in a row. But with that said, if there's a coach in the country that can do it, its Saban.
1. USC
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At some point, the Trojans have to see a dip on the trail don't they? They've dominated in recruiting in this decade and Lane Kiffin has done a creative and extremely clever job of circumventing the sanctions and scholarship reductions USC is enduring at the moment.
But as it looks now, the Trojans may run into some problems in the 2012 cycle. They may only be able to sign 8-15 players in this recruiting class and sanctions and scholarship reductions may finally catch up to them for a recruiting cycle.
USC signed a top five class last year and got a great turnout of early enrollees to count against the 2010 recruiting class, but a top five class this year likely won't happen.
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