2011 NBA Playoffs: Predicting Each Western Conference Matchup
The Lakers have been swooning down the stretch, just like last season, and enter the postseason with more doubts. The Mavericks have been a first round exit three of the last four years. The Spurs have struggled to defend down the stretch and needed the Laker's swoon to clinch homecourt in the West. The Thunder and Nuggets look poised to upset someone, but first they have to play each other in what may be the first round's marquee matchup in either conference.
While the favorites are all capable of winning each series, the potential upsets are present in most of the matchups. One thing's for certain though, and that is that these matchups should be drama filled and, in most cases, close.
So here's my look at each matchup and my predicted winners.
No. 1: San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 8: Memphis Grizzlies
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The Grizzlies missed a golden opportunity to move up to the seventh seed by losing to the Clippers on the final day of the season, but you have to feel like they are still quite confident against the Spurs. The two teams split during the regular season with each team winning on the other's home floor, so there is no doubt in either teams' minds that they can go on the road and steal one in this series.
What's even more interesting is that the Grizzlies beat the Spurs with and without Rudy Gay, while the Spurs lost to the Grizzlies the one game in the series that Duncan missed. This may not mean anything, but at the same time it should tell you that the Grizzlies are going to have a lot more confidence than most eight seeds.
They're going to need it too because the Spurs have been there and done that, and they know what it takes to win. Add to that the fact that their minutes have been reduced significantly during the season to prepare for a deep postseason run and I think that the Spurs may surprise some teams, which is odd to say because they had the second best record in the NBA, tied for the best home record in the NBA and a core that has been together and won more championships than any other team in today's NBA.
Isn't it funny how the same people who talk about the Lakers and all of their experience completely discount the Spurs and how much more experience they have.
Anyway, I digress.
This should be an exciting series to watch. The Zach Randolph vs. Tim Duncan matchup pits the most fundamental player in the game against a guy that plays to contact and bowls you over. I am also especially interested in seeing how Tony Allen handles Manu Ginobili. The question is what do the young Grizzlies do if they go down 2-0 quickly.
Prediction: Spurs in six. It may not even go that far, but I think it will be tied at two after game four and that will be when all of that Spurs experience kicks in. It should still be exciting though since three of the four games these teams played this season were decided by seven points or less.
No. 2: Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 7: New Orleans Hornets
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Such interesting lines between these two teams this season. A 15-point loss for the Hornets in game one, then a four point loss, a six point loss and an 18-point loss. Needless to say the Lakers have had the Hornet's number this season, both in close games and blowouts. I think that before the David West injury this could have been a fun series to watch. With Trevor Ariza going against the team that dumped him after he helped them win a championship, Chris Paul against the corpse of Derek Fisher, West and Emeka Okafor vs. the dynamic duo of Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol and throw in a little Kobe Bryant for some sizzle.
Now it's just gonna be sad to watch the Hornets desperately try to do something to convince Chris Paul not to bail after next season, but it's really their own fault as they've made too many panic trades in the last two years and soon they'll have nothing to show for it.
Prediction: Lakers in four. At some point during this series Hubie Brown or Jeff Van Gundy are going to refer to the Lakers as doing layup drills because of how easy it is going to be for them.
No. 3: Dallas Mavericks vs. No. 6: Portland Trailblazers
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Talk about a guy completely falling below the radar, but how many people knew about the season LaMarcus Aldridge had? Brandon Roy and Marcus Camby missed extended time with no real timetable on either's return and the Blazers needed a guy to step up for them. Aldridge was that guy. Night in and night out he carried the Blazers on his back. Then, the Blazers made a trade for Gerald Wallace while also getting Roy and Camby back.
Now they're one of the deepest teams in the league.
The Mavericks have been going in the opposite direction. Dirk Nowitzki is still great, but the Mavs have struggled at times to find a consistent No. 2 to Dirk. They are more predictable on offense, and since Tyson Chandler went down, they are less tough on defense. To make matters worse, Jason Kidd is starting to show his age in all of the bad ways.
All signs point to a first round upset.
Prediction: Blazers in six. I can't resist. The Blazers have just been too strong and consistent the last three weeks while the Mavs are still the Mavs, by that I mean looking old, a one man show, uninspired and generally like a team that should have sold of it's aging pieces or made a big trade at the deadline. I mean, why exactly is Rodrigue Beaubois untouchable? Is he the future in Dallas? If so, I would not be re-uping my season tickets.
No. 4: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 5: Denver Nuggets
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Of all of the first round matchups, this is the one that disappoints me the most. The Denver Nuggets are just a feel good story for the season. From overcoming their coach having cancer to dealing with their superstar player being a cancer (that's two types of cancer to fight) to losing their superstar and being completely written off only to become one of the most dominant second half teams in the NBA. It just seems a shame to me that they have to meet the Thunder in the first round.
The Thunder have quietly gone about their business since acquiring Kendrick Perkins at the trade deadline, and as a result have become increasingly overlooked as a team that can compete with anyone on any given night. Serge Ibaka has turned into a beast defensively, James Harden has become a super sub and the dynamic duo of Kevin Durant and Russel Westbrook have become nearly unstoppable when they keep the ball moving together.
This team can beat anybody, and I do mean ANYBODY!
That being said, it will be interesting to see if the Thunder can keep up with the Nuggets depth and not tire out as fresh body after fresh body is subbed in and the Nuggets uptempo style takes full affect. It should be entertaining, but the outcome seems fairly certain.
Prediction: Thunder in six. The Thunder are basically young enough to withstand the onslaught of fresh bodies, and tough enough up front to protect the rim. It's possible that the Nuggets could take one early in Oklahoma City, which could change the dynamics of the series, but I don't see the Thunder losing this series.
Now It's on to Round Two, Where the Real Action Starts
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The second round will offer so much intrigue.
Can the old Spurs defeat the young Thunder using a different blueprint than their previous championships?
Can the Lakers and their experience prevail against the depth and length of the Blazers?
Are we headed for a Spurs vs. Lakers Western Conference Finals?
Stay Tuned...
