TCU First Quarter Prognosis: Defense Steady, Offense Uninspired

After three games, TCU is performing pretty much like they did last year—lots of great defense, but an offense that is still looking to bust out of the wet paper bag.  The Frogs supposedly installed a new style of the spread, but so far it looks only like a more couth version of last year’s sputter.

Mind you, the Frogs are doing great as far as ball control, holding onto the pigskin for more than 36 minutes per game.  They have only one turnover while forcing opponents to cough it up 11 times.

But some other numbers speak for themselves.  Their longest run from scrimmage is 22 yards, while the longest pass is just 31 yards.  Starting quarterback Andy Dalton has not thrown for any TDs.  This despite the fact that they have played two teams, Stephen F. Austin and Stanford, who have subpar defenses.

TCU will probably be able to overpower all but three teams left on their schedule: OU, BYU, and Utah.

The TCU defense should keep the OU game close for nearly 45 minutes but will eventually tucker out when the offense is unable to give them any respite or put some wind into their sails.  Look for the Sooners to pull away from a fairly close game in the last 20 minutes and win, 31-14.

If TCU’s offense is suffocated against OU, it may convince the TCU staff that they will have to open things up a bit to beat top teams.

TCU’s best performance of the season is likely to come against an undefeated BYU team on Thursday, Oct. 16 in Ft. Worth.  The Cougars have beaten the Frogs twice in a row, so expect TCU to be pumped and ready and for the purple and white to realize a mild upset in Ft. Worth.

After that, the Frogs must go to Utah for the second-to-last game of the season.  The Utes will be at home and fighting for the conference championship.  Both teams will make some big mistakes, but I see Utah pulling it out in front of a boisterous home crowd.

The other most dangerous teams in the Mountain West, Wyoming and Air Force, are teams that TCU should have beaten on the road last year but did not.  Texas Christian should be ready to get revenge and be able to dispatch them mercifully early at home in cowtown.

The only other question on the TCU schedule is a rejuvenated UNLV that TCU must face in Las Vegas.  TCU has had little trouble with the Rebels in the past, but UNLV could give a complacent TCU team a scare or even upset the Frogs at home in Vegas.