What Should Arkansas Fans Expect for the Rest of the Season?

It's been a tough couple of weeks to be a Razorback fan.  First, Arkansas trailed at home to an FCS school by 10 in the fourth quarter and had to come back to win.  Then, they had to come back from being down by 18 in the third quarter to a Sun Belt conference school. 

These teams are normally known to the BCS conference schools as c*pc*kes.  In most years, fans would consider it a disappointment to not have the game wrapped up and be playing the backups by halftime.

Then, the following weekend, Arkansas was to take on Texas at Austin, but it was postponed for Hurricane Ike.  Then, it didn't end up raining a drop at Austin.

That was supposed to be an tough out-of-conference game to meet the rigors of the first three conference games of Alabama, Florida, and Auburn.

So it's been a tenuous start to the season so far for Arkansas.  Yet, as forgettable as we might want to think of the season's start, it gets worse.

With Alabama now ranked in the top 10, Arkansas has to play four straight top 10 teams (assuming none of them lose between now and the game).  That would be Alabama, Texas, Florida, and Auburn.  And the bye week they had scheduled for themselves between those four (therefore splitting them into two pairs) is now occupied by Texas due to the postponement.

Realistically, I don't see a win in there.  Arkansas will most likely come out of this stretch as a 2-4 team.  Yes, Bama and Florida are home games.  Yes, Auburn only managed to put up three points last week.  But, I just don't think any of these teams would have needed to overcome a 10-point deficit against Western Illinois.

The good news is that I don't think anyone on the team realistically expects anything less than getting throttled during these next four games.  They are less likely to lose faith if their expectations can't fall that far.

This team knows it needs work.  I think they would love to catch a team looking forward to a bigger game and get a key turnover or special teams play and end up 3-3 with their tough games mostly behind them.  I see that as the best possible scenario though I'm not calling it likely.

However, whether Arkansas is a 3-3 team or a 2-4 team at the midpoint is really not that important, so long as they are improving. 

Arkansas is getting several players back from injuries or suspensions this week.  Some of these players are key, especially on defense, which has been the main problem with this year's team. 

They are also learning new offensive and defensive schemes.  When that gels, they should start to "click" a little more.

The second half of the year will tell the tale as to whether or not the Razorbacks can hope for a bowl or whether or not they can phone it in.  In the second half, Arkansas gets both Mississippi teams, Tulsa, South Carolina, Kentucky and LSU.

Other than LSU, each of these games is definitely winnable.  Even LSU is winnable if Petrino really gets them coached up and cranking by the last game of the season. 

It's a home game.  LSU might have some key injuries.  But, it's a likely loss.

Even still, Arkansas will be heading into the "softer" part of their schedule at a time when they should be getting a bit better under new coach Petrino.  This could bode well if they don't lose it psychologically with the early losses.

So here is how I see the rest of the season playing out in realistic terms.  I'm taking my hog hat and my rose colored glasses off.  Here goes...

Alabama: This will either be a Bama blowout or a nailbiter.  I don't see a way Arkansas could win comfortably.  If it's a nailbiter, I expect Arkansas to be in it.  That's all they've played so far and have found what they need to win and trust Petrino that he can get them over the top.  Bama has had fairly easy wins.  It's a home game and the crowd could be a factor if the game is still on the table in the fourth quarter.  But, it's a likely loss.

Texas: Colt and the boys will have another tune-up game with Rice before hosting the Hogs at their place.  Arkansas' secondary is suspect, and I think they could make a Heisman candidate out of McCoy.

Florida: Meyer will win as bad as he can.  That's just the way he is.  Arkansas doesn't have the defense to stop them and they don't have the offense to keep Florida's off the field by playing ball possession.  Arkansas will need luck, turnovers, and penalties to keep it respectable.

Auburn: Arkansas should be getting better by this point, but their collective psyche may be damaged a bit.  Auburn's new offense isn't clicking, at least for now.  And Arkansas has never really had a problem with Auburn.  The series since entering the league is around 50/50 with Arkansas getting a number of those wins at Auburn including two near beatdowns.  But, it's still a likely loss.

Kentucky: The Wildcats lost most of their firepower from last year and barely beat Middle Tennessee.  While it can be said that Arkansas barely beat Louisiana-Monroe, Arkansas is learning a completely new system under an entirely new staff. The improvement between now and that game should be more than Kentucky will improve.  I see Arkansas getting back to its winning ways here.

Ole Miss: This will be a highly charged game as Nutt returns with the Rebels.  Nutt seems to lose games he should win and win games he should lose, so it's hard to tell here.  But, I think Arkansas may be so fired about this game that they may play possessed.  The crowd will definitely be a force.  This game could come down to turnovers.  However, Petrino has a history of putting beatdowns on teams that are too predictable, and if there's one thing Nutt is more than anything else, it's predictable.  I think Arkansas wins.

Tulsa: Gus Malzahn was looked at for the Arkansas job.  It wasn't a serious look or a long one, and he wasn't on the short list, but he did have some backers high up in the administration.  Petrino will not let himself be compared after this game unfavorably.  He will do whatever it takes to not have the narrative be "maybe we should have hired Gus."  Arkansas should be getting better here and will flex its muscle at home.

South Carolina: Spurrier just hasn't found any of that old magic.  As I write this, South Carolina is 0-2 in conference play.  This is a win.

Mississippi State: I said last year's Mississippi State team was really a 1-7 conference team that got a lot of breaks.  They are showing it this year.  They scored no points against Auburn offensively...zero, zip, nada.  They will lose many game this years and, by this point in the season, will be demoralized.  Arkansas has only lost to them once since joining the SEC.  This year will be no different.

LSU: While last year's fireworks were fun, Petrino better have the boys ready for what LSU will consider a statement game.  This game will either be a big LSU win or a nailbiter.  However, LSU has veterans on their squad that seemed to relish nailbiters last season.  They know how to play them.  Being the home team doesn't help Arkansas as much here, as it is a Little Rock game and the stadium is smaller and less imposing and the crowd less rowdy.  Also, Arkansas travels three hours to get here and LSU only has to travel about 5.  LSU won here last time.  They probably will again.

So, there you have my predictions and why.  The final result will be a 7-5 campaign and a trip to a bowl that they would rather not go to.  But, next year and beyond, watch out for Arkansas.  Petrino can't afford another quick stay professionally, so he will stick around long enough to make a big winner here.