Mitch's Week Four College Football Picks: Part Two

It always takes me a few days to get back in the swing of things when I get back from Las Vegas—and to think I'll be back there in early December to watch the Pacman and the Golden Boy duke it out at MGM...it doesn't even sound that appealing

Who am I kidding?  I know I'll be ready to go the full 12 rounds by then.

Speaking of ready to go again, it all starts again tonight as we kick it off with Wednesday night football.  While I know my wife isn't too excited about the prospect of four straight days of college football, it sits just about right with me.

I'm really starting to get a good feel as to what teams are made of and who can handle the road, tough opponents, and whatever else it takes to win.  I'm also starting to get a feel for those teams that have a lot of games on mainstream TV, as they always tend to get a little over-hyped by the media.

Let's hope the officials can stay as unbiased and keep it real, as at this point the officiating has been dreadful and is deciding games.  I never believe it's the blatantly obvious call—it's always that second down holding call that affects field position and time of possession.

That article and commentary is for another day—for today, let's pick some games.

Georgia -7 at Arizona State (Saturday, Sept. 20, 8 EST): 1 Unit

Georgia faces its second road trip in as many weeks coming off a solid push at South Carolina last week.  The Sun Devils, on the other hand, were shocked at home by UNLV as a 25-point favorite—ouch.

While many had reasonably high expectations for ASU, they will not recover in the rankings from last week, and I don't think Coach Richt is going let his Bulldogs be the trampoline to bounce Arizona State back into the rankings.

The Bulldogs haven't lost a game in about a year now, and their trends against the spread back it up as well.  They are 5-0-1 against the spread in their last six, 5-0 against the spread in their last five against a team with a winning record, and 5-1 against the spread in their last six non-conference games.

For ASU, they are 1-4 against the spread in their last five against a team with a winning record, 1-6 against the spread in their last seven overall, and 0-4 against the spread in their last four following an against the spread loss.

I think the Bulldogs come out against a Pac-10 team and make their claim for the top spot in the rankings.

UCLA +2 1/2 vs. Arizona (Saturday, Sept. 20, 3 EST): 1 Unit

Don't ever let it be said that I'm scared off by a team getting blown out on the road by 59 points the prior week.  I guess that's how sour I am on Arizona.  Arizona quietly lost as 10-point favorites to New Mexico.

I believe the season stats for both teams are skewed.  Arizona's numbers are inflated by a 70-0 opening game blowout of Idaho, and of course UCLA's starching at the hands of BYU doesn't help their numbers.  New Mexico beat the Wildcats by running all over them.  I think Rick Neuheisel can out-coach at least this Stoops any day of the week.

While the favorite is 7-3 against the spread in this series, the game actually opened as a pick.  The home team is 5-0 against the spread in this series, which bodes well for UCLA.

It's tough to believe there is only one negative trend surrounding these two in this spot, and that is that Arizona is 2-5 in their last seven in September.  Both are monsters against the number in the conference, bounce well from a non-cover, and last week was their first non-cover in their last half dozen games.  I can list them all, but it's pointless as it's splitting hairs.

If a chance to get points against Arizona isn't enough for me, I like a home dog, especially when the spot is right.  I'm on the Bruins.

See eight more FREE picks in this article for this week from Mitch at The College Football Place.