BCS Championship Game: Why the Auburn Tigers Get the Crystal Ball

Lots of predictions have been thrown around the past couple of weeks. Some said Auburn would be worn down by the fourth quarter or that Oregon would not have an opportunity to execute as fluidly as it did during the season.

There will be some indicators to the success and outcome in this game. Special teams play can and will most likely be huge. The ability of the defenses to stop these offenses is obvious, but how will that be accomplished? What is the edge that will tip the favor for one of these teams?

The most likely outcome is that Auburn will tire at some point and that Oregon will not execute to perfection. I don’t care how much running and conditioning you do; the larger you are, the more winded you typically will become. Auburn has the size advantage in this game as well as comparable speed. The difference will be if the size advantage has a weardown effect for the Tigers.

The other side of the game comes from Oregon. Will the Oregon offense, with all its intricate moving parts, be able to execute its best game this year? Because of the size and speed advantage that Auburn brings to the game, Oregon has to maintain blocks and execute to perfection. The breakdowns against Cal won’t stand in this game.

Will the Auburn defense wear down? That is a huge question that has a lot of different ways to answer.  The Auburn defense has completed a lot of scrimmage hours against the Auburn first-team offense, which snaps a new play every 21 seconds on average, only three seconds slower than Oregon.

This defense has seen the speed that Oregon will offer. Auburn is a pretty good offense itself and has speed at every position. The big kicker will be whether the interior line can hold up, stay grounded the entire game and fill the holes to stop the fast attack running game that Oregon possesses.

The good news for Auburn is that its line has rotated the entire season pretty fluidly. Even though some of the depth was a concern in August, the legs should be fresh for those guys. If Auburn can control the line, which it should, there will not be many holes for the Ducks running game to shoot through.

The other side of the coin is whether Oregon will be able to execute at its highest level of the season. As stated above, the line of scrimmage will be where the execution begins and ends. Looking at the size differential, Oregon has a very formidable offensive line.

The defensive side is where the 15 to 20-pound difference comes into play. Oregon’s offense is going to score points and will execute well. The difference will be whether the Duck defense is able to handle the Auburn offensive line and schemes.  

The Oregon defense is a blitz-happy group because it is able to use its speed to its advantage and ignore the size differential. Against an Auburn team that is oversized in comparison but is able to hold gaps extremely well, Oregon’s defense will use blitzing techniques but may not be very effective.

After all, Cam Newton has performed better under the blitz than he has in the pocket with no pressure. Newton has completed in the 70 percent range under pressure and has thrown only one of his eight interceptions in that scenario.

The question is: Will Oregon play defense to cover the receivers and force Newton to make better decisions, or rush and force Newton to use his athleticism? I would aim to force longer decisions. That has been the only time this season that some of the decisions have looked questionable.

The final piece of the puzzle will be the special teams aspect. Oregon has played lights out on special teams this year and has gained a lot of advantages from good field position and a points-producing unit. Auburn has covered kickoffs really well this season, but the punting game has been abysmal, to put it nicely.

The only advantage for Auburn is that the punting game has been bad enough that most teams have not had the opportunity to return any punts. The advantage to Oregon there would be that the field position could be given to them.

The special teams could be the neutralizer for the Auburn size on the offensive and defensive lines. Auburn cannot allow big plays to occur, and I don’t expect to see them happen. Oregon will have to get a returnable punt to make a difference. As bad as it sounds, that may not happen either.

At the end of the day, these are two very talented and quality opponents, and it will come down to execution. Gameplans will matter, but execution will be the defining factor, not playcalling. Look for this to be a back-and-forth game, but to finish with Auburn on top.