ECU BCS? It's More Real Than You Think

Strength of schedule has more of an impact on the game of college football than any other American sport.  Last week, USC jumped Georgia in the rankings because USC handed a whooping to a major conference team (Virginia).  This week, Ohio State slipped to fifth because of a very close game against Ohio University (you can expect another big slip if they can’t keep up with USC).

Teams are beginning to get some criticism for not scheduling tough out of conference, and this is one of the many things taken into consideration by the BCS system.  I can say with a certain amount of confidence, however, that there may be one team who may have finally figured out how to crack it for the mid-majors.

East Carolina University is now in its fourth year under Skip Holtz, who previously coached with his father at South Carolina.  Year four is always a big year for a coach because it means you are playing with virtually all of your personal recruits.

The problem, of course, is that the ECU Pirates play in Conference USA.  Barring some sort of colossal implosion amongst all major conferences, they would never see themselves playing for a national championship.

Holtz brought with him a solution.  Since his arrival, ECU’s out of conference schedule has gotten drastically more difficult, including frequently scheduled games against both Big East and ACC teams.  With the BCS in mind, the ACC and Big East salivate over an opportunity like this.  There are some decent teams in Conference USA, so those ACC and Big East teams don’t look like they are scheduling cupcakes, when in reality they are expecting to beat the Conference USA teams brutally.  ECU was one of those teams—until now.

ECU lost to both Va. Tech and West Virginia last season, with West Virginia beating them absolutely senseless.  But a year of growth and comfort in college football is also incredibly important to the game—and oh, what a difference a year makes.  Not only did two teams who previously scheduled ECU as a tune-up lose to ECU—the Pirates literally dominated both games.

First, ECU won with their special teams against Va. Tech, the special teams staple of college football.  Their defense played fairly well as a whole, but the secondary unit was on fire, and a blocked punt turned touchdown gave them the victory.  ECU’s offense was led by Patrick Pinkney at QB, who threw for an insanely high pass percentage (19/23 for 200-plus yards), and a running back tandem duo in Brandon Simmons and Jonathan Williams who combined for 100-plus yards. 

At that time, it looked like an upset, but this past weekend it began to look a little more routine.  I base this, of course, on ECU’s absolute domination of West Virginia.  In fact (awesome stat alert), ECU is one of only two teams in the last five years to hold West Virginia to single digit points, and the first team to hold them to three points or fewer this millennium.

On the opposite side of the ball, their offense looked great as well.  The RB duo once again combined for more than 100 yards, and Pinkney threw better than 75 percent on the day (completing 22 of 28).  Someone with limited college football exposure would have thought it was him and not Pat White in the hunt for a Heisman Trophy.

ECU is now in an incredibly important position.  They are ranked No. 14 in the country, and contrary to the BCS-busting mid-majors before them, they have already defeated last season’s ACC and Big East champions.  Here’s the kicker: They may not be done doing damage out of conference.  ECU is still set to travel to NC State and Virginia.

Now, we are only two weeks into the college season, and it is entirely too early to predict a total Cinderella.  But I will say the following based on the principle that the BCS has laid down over the past few years, especially with mid-majors in BCS bowls.  If (and this is a huge if) ECU runs the table, the Pirates have to play for a national championship.

One-third of their schedule is out of conference, and there is a great chance that three-quarters of their out-of-conference schedule will be ranked in the top 20 by season’s end.  If there is only one other undefeated team—SEC, Big 12, I don’t care—whether you agree or not, it has to be ECU playing for the national championship.The BCS has always favored teams with stronger schedules, and this team, of all the serious mid-major threats, will have had the stiffest schedule by far.

Now, this entire scenario remains an “if” because of the mid-major status of Conference-USA.  If they lose once in conference, it's over.  Regardless of how this season ends, ECU has officially made the statement that they are ready to be the new Louisville of Conference USA.