Maurice Jones-Drew vs. Darren McFadden: Key Week 14 NFL Matchup

Oakland Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday December 12th, 2010 1:00 PM EST

Line: Jacksonville -4

Overview:

The 7-5 Jacksonville Jaguars are in sole possession of first place in the AFC South. A win this week would propel them one game ahead of the Indianapolis Colts. While their record will not be good enough to earn them a wild card spot, their playoff hopes are very much alive and well.

They have already beaten the Colts this season and will likely control their playoff destiny, as they play the Colts again this season for what will likely decide the outcome of the division.

This week they take on the 6-6 Oakland Raiders, a team that has also made tremendous strides this season. The Raiders are two games out of first place, but if they can manage to gain a game on the division leading Kansas City Chiefs before Week 17, they could potentially overtake the division with a victory at Arrowhead Stadium.

As it stands, the Raiders have lost two of their last three games since the bye week. Even so, they destroyed the San Diego Chargers last week, solidifying their reputation as the most unpredictable team in the NFL.

While I always break down the Keys to the Game, I am going to skip that portion in this analysis, as this game rests solely upon the Key Matchup. Since two players will decide the entire outcome of this game, the matchup warrants more detail than any other game I have ever broken down.

Key Matchup:

Maurice Jones-Drew vs. Darren McFadden

Maurice Jones-Drew has rushed for over 100 yards in five straight games. He is the second leading rusher in the NFL and continues to be overly impressive every single week. He is on pace to hit 1,569 yards this season. With seven games of 98 yards or more, Jones-Drew is one of the most explosive backs in the league.

The entire Jacksonville offense is predicated on the success Jones-Drew sees. David Garrard can throw the ball almost at will when Jones-Drew gets going, as the run game commands the complete attention of the defense. Teams consistently load up the box to account for him, especially in the red zone. This accounts for Jones-Drew’s lack of production near the goal line, but also adds to the success tight end Marcedes Lewis has seen.

Linebacker Rolando McClain and the Raiders will likely make Jones-Drew the focal point of the defense. Even so, if the Jaguars can find success through the air, the Raiders will eventually have to play honestly, giving Jones-Drew the green light. The Raiders give up 124.3 yards per game on the ground, and since he is likely to see the overwhelming majority of touches, Jones-Drew's 100-yard game streak is likely to continue.

On the other sideline, Darren McFadden's impact on the Raiders is equally as resounding as Jones-Drew's is for the Jaguars. McFadden missed two games this season and has still managed to rack up 870 yards on the ground. When he is in the game, the Raiders always have a chance to pull off an upset.

Two weeks ago, he was held completely in check by the Dolphins, amassing only two yards on eight carries. The following week, against the NFL’s number one overall defense in San Diego, McFadden ran for 97 yards and a touchdown. His YPC average is 4.9 on the season, which is better than both Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew, among others.

McFadden has to have a big day on the ground. Just like Jones-Drew, his play has an effect on the entire offense. Jason Campbell is able to throw over the top of defenses who cheat up to eliminate McFadden. With so much speed and an emerging Jacoby Ford, the Raiders make teams pay if they are unable to stop McFadden.

The Jaguars are not exactly stout against the run. They allow 110 yards per game, which is slightly better than the Raiders' defense. Even so, McFadden should be looking at a big day on the ground. His play against the Chargers alone stands as a testament to how effective he can be against virtually any defense in the league.

Wrap-Up:

I have been high on betting both of these teams for the majority of this season. Both teams look like they are going to take advantage of the run game early, which could lead to some big plays in the passing game. I see this battle as being even on the ground, and given the success of both passing games when the ground game is going, I’m taking the Raiders simply because they are getting points. Don’t be surprised if the Jaguars come away with a narrow victory.

Free NFL Pick: Oakland +4